Hero mid 30s, playing mostly Tag, most people at the table no me as a solid player, in middle position with 10♤10♧ (410) stack

VI has history with me, usually plays 2/5, knows I am solid and that I am capable of making moves, I know he will as well. He's on the button (300)

V2 unknown not really relevant

Hero raises 15
VI And V2 call

Flop A♡10♡K♢(45)
Hero leads 35
V2 folds
VI raises to 75
Hero calls

Turn 3♧195
Hero checks
V goes all in

Hero?
I range on 2pairs, nut flush draws, or QJ, occasionally but doubtfully air

Why does he bet so much? He doesn't want you to see the next card....he could have QJ or two pair....
Tough spot for sure!

I may fold here even if ahead and pick a better spot.

Yeah, I'm stacking off here every time. Tons of flush draws, pair + gutter, 2 pairs, etc. in his range. You destroy his range right now. He won't show up with AA/KK here very often. If he has QJ you've got ten outs. I would have re-popped the flop and gotten it in.

Wut


Snap call. I prefer 3bet flop or lead turn.

Her may be ahead here but is it worth risking all of his chips with so many outs? I don't think so.

I think you have to call. Even if he has JQ you still have 10 outs. 99% of the time you have to discout AA or KK since he didn't 3bet pre, although some villians are crafty. Anyway you're calling 200 to win 400 and you have a set. Can't fold here. There's so many hands he can do this with that you beat. Easy call..

I think I am shoving the flop. If he has AA, or KK and played it that way well great gg nh.

QJ, likely, but at least you have 10 outs. You said hes TAG, so I kinda discount this hand. Its very possible, but if he views you as solid, I am kinda thinking, he might not have this.

I think A10, K10 are also likely even though you are blocking some combos of these. Pair and a flush draw also likely.

AP. I think I am calling. Set over Set is just bad variance. You raised pre with 1010 pretty much wanting to flop a set, you did, I'd go with it.

3b the flop. As played, im calling and pretty happy about it.

As others have said, we are rarely crushed here by AA or KK, have outs vs JQ and there are way too many combo draws out there to be folding with the odds were getting - only folding against the nittiest of opponents.

Easy call.

I don't understand why anyone would 3! this flop. Villain is almost always way behind, there is no sense in chasing him away when there are so many blank turns for him to take a stab with.

Lol

He will likely have combo draws in his range so call

I agree that call is good here but folding isn't crazy option.

What if he doesn't stab? Vs raise is pretty much a min raise. It's not uncommon for someone in position to min raise the flop and then check back the turn. I'd hate to give V two free shots to hit whatever it is he needs. Any heart, queen, or jack is going to kill the action and we lose value on our monster. Even if V doesn't need a Q,J, or heart, those cards might allow him to get away from his hand cheap.

This is a massive leak. If we lose all our chips we can buy more, we want to take all of our +EV spots so that we can increase our expected value.

Thanks everyone, I do think I should have gotten it in on the flop, my thought was if I checked he might push on a draw thinking I was weaker, so I snap called him. Anyone want to guess what he had?

KQ hearts?

I liked the way you played it. Bomb the flop, any ace calls. I don't know that I would reraise, don't want to scare off AQ or AJ. Love the turn check. Call the shove. People do all kind of weird things, they will flat AA or KK sometimes. But you are up against AJ-AK a lot here. Against this guy maybe a combo draw. w/e. Get it in best way you can. Wp

Ramna - thanks for the feedback. So are you saying that if I think I'm ahead at that point, regardless of how many outs my opponent has, I should call for 2 reasons:
1) I'm ahead
2) if I lose I can rebuy but in the long term I will win more

Pre flop:

Fine

Flop:

Initial bet fine, after he raises you, get it in... he barely ever has KK or AA and if those 16 combos of QJ are what he has, so be it. Sometimes we get cooler'd

Turn: As played, call it off holmes. That's a good turn for our hand.


GL, man

Thanks again everyone, just to let everyone know it was a cooler he had the straight, oh well

Is shoving $285 over $75 the right play? What about min 3betting the flop to $150 then getting it in? Effective stack sizes are borderline for shoving and 3betting a portion of stack size.

Good point Spooner

I dont think villians raising range on this flop is as wide as people seem to think it is and I would expect most of his combo draws to be calling the flop bet. This flop hammers our preflop range and yet hes shoveling chips in the pot. He likely 3!s AA, KK, and AK pre. That doesnt leave many hands outside of QJ that raise the flop... (maybe AT).

Hmmmmm....


OTT, pot is $195, V shoves for $210. If you call, your equity is 210/(195+210+210) = 34%.

If he shows you his hand, QJ (no FD), your actual equity would be about 22.7%. So it would have been a fold.

Since he can have stuff other then the straight, you need to only make up 11.3% equity in order for this to be a call. How do you do this?

Let's add AK to his range...

Board: Ah Kh Td 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.455% 45.45% 00.00% 1080 0.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 54.545% 54.55% 00.00% 1296 0.00 { AKo, QJo }

So by merely giving him the obvious 2p hands too, you now have 45% equity, and you can happily call his turn shove.

This hand is not a cooler. Against his range, you really, really want to get all the $$$ in either OTF or OTT.

Imo we have to get it in because any Q,J, or heart is bad and could either give him the winner or freeze the action. Theres about a 33% chance we get a bad turn card which is way too high when we have half our stack in the middle.