ive got about 5000.

folds around to me i open QJdd 60 only the bb calls. hes got 4kish ive not played w/ him before hes about mid 30's prob some kind of mix of asian/white i guess he seems pretty good. hes been at the table maybe an hour or so playing slightly more hands than the rest of the table.

flop: KQ8dd
ck i bet 80 he makes it 300 i call

turn: 5brick
he bets 580 i call

river: 3brick
he bets 1100

i always think that i make mistakes in situations like this on rivers so what do u guys think?

i can be a calling station and i always think people are trying to bluff me so i usually do the math and convince myself OTR he has ATdd and call lol

Seems like a fold, as he should have more than enough value hands in this spot in relation to what bluff hands he can have. 12 combos of KQ and 88; also if he is a good player he can show up with AK here. The hands that you are beating consist of missed fds, which you block a few of, and TJs, which there is only 3 of. I doubt he is just firing blindly with 9Thh or something.

how does a good player show up with AK here?

Where did you open from?

I think we should check the flop somewhat often, we're not really getting value from his calling range or his raising range, we're not folding much equity when he x/f, and I'm not really interested in setting up multiple barrels to fold Kx/better Qx without more specific reads.

I would 3b flop

u know we have pair + FD OTF right? id agree with your reasoning if we just had QJ w/o a FD; but you'd be missing out on a ton of equity on later streets by not c-betting this flop imo

+1

why

Well, if you ever want to c/c flop, this is the nut hand to do so with.

Yeah, I know. We get to play future streets with a good bluffcatcher and a really good draw that our opponent is going to have trouble putting us on.

What "equity on later streets" are you talking about? I think we're much more likely to get villain to make a big mistake on a diamond when we check flop than when we bet, and we certainly are not going to get him to make a mistake on the flop when we bet.

Easiest flop check ever

I respect both ur games and i'm surprised we differ on flop action, so i'll go over why i'd c-bet instead of check flop.

First off, I do agree that we're not just purely value-betting the flop, and we're probably behind a good % of the time if he c/c flop; however, if he c/c, he'll likely check to us on the turn, where we can safely barrel any Q, J, or diamond for value (potentially netting one more large street of value that we may not have received if we checked back flop), and we can decide whether or not to barrel any A, 10, or 9 depending on if u think V can fold hands like K-x to double/triple barrels. In other words, we're typically freerolling a 17-outer (9 diamonds, 2 Qs, 3Js, 3As) if V happens to have us beat when he c/c flop, and we have a chance to manipulate pot size with a hand that has tons of equity against any hand in Vs range deep in position.

While we almost certainly have a nut bluff catcher OTF, we also have one of the few hands that we can b/c flop this deep (although this should be somewhat rare as ppl don't raise KQxss flops as often as 9-8-6ss flops, and we have most combo draw blockers). I'm not advocating that we should just bet every hand that we can b/c with deep, but id much rather keep other hands like Q-x, some K-x, 1010-JJ in my check-back range that don't have nearly as much equity against hands like K-x when called to make c-betting more profitable than checking back. (FWIW, I'm assuming V won't exploit hero since they're unknowns. With history against a good V, my check-back range wouldn't be so obvious.)

If V is known to stab at every checked flop, then i could definitely see merits in checking back, but the fact that we're competent (presumably), IP, deep, with the initiative and a 14+ outer (perhaps more if u count bluff outs like aces + the times that u backdoor a straight) makes me much more willing to c-bet this flop and manipulate the action on later streets so that my opponent makes more big mistakes OOP in a bloated pot

This is one of the worst hands to call river with.

If we think villain's c/r range is something like: A2dd+, KQ, 88, TJs, and some weaker stuff like 9Ts, I like 3betting the flop for protection. Flame away.

How does any of this (except maybe cleaning up our equity for bluffing Ax) change when we check the flop?

I don't mind betting this flop, however, checking it back sometimes is good. As played I like calling turn and I think river is a fold. I do think your hand looks like a flush draw, so V can be barreling with the Axd here often. I still lean towards a fold, but I wouldn't hate a call if we had more info on V.

First, the c-bet itself is going to show a profit vs V's c/c range ITLR. Against a somewhat strong range of 8-8, KJo+, K8s+, Q8s, AQo, AQs, AdJx, Ad10x, J10, 109dd, and NFDs from A2dd-A10dd, QJdd has over 56% equity, and thats just if we check it down to the river and get to showdown regardless of if we spike a flush, trips, etc. (I'm probably giving V too strong of a c/c range tbh because im assuming he will peel pre with hands like Q-8s/K-8s but not hands like K-10o or peel flop with lower FDs)

More importantly, and what i've been alluding to when i mention the "increased equity on later streets," is that when we get c/c and spike a diamond, Q, J, etc, we're going to be able to extract bigger bets from V than we otherwise would have if we checked back flop. While I agree that V will likely not call big turn and river bets with the exact same range of hands that may have called 1 or 2 streets if we checked back flop, his c/c range is strong enough and most V's calldown ranges are wide enough that we can typically net a lot more money by c-betting flop and selectively barreling turns and rivers to give V the possibility to make even bigger mistakes in big pots, consequently increasing our equity.

After re-reading the last paragraph, i realize it may sound oversimplified and I'm making some generic assumptions about V's level of play, but i still believe that c-betting is better than calling since we can find some massively +EV spots on later streets that wouldn't be as profitable if we checked back flop. Hope that clears up what I meant even though it still may be a bit vague.

As for the actual hand, I do think folding river is best; however, would u guys also be folding on rivered Q's or J's since his value range should still have us crushed OTR? Are we simply calling turn to hit our FD/hope he shuts down?

I default c-bet but I really am liking the arguments for checking back that I'm seeing.

You need to factor in how much equity we lose against a x/r range. We're probably farther ahead when we bet flop and he calls, but we're much farther behind when we have to call a raise. We realize less of our equity against both ranges, since he's less likely to put a bet in behind on a diamond when a larger chunk of both our range and his range consists of flush draws. We're also shutting out a huge chunk of his range that has 4 outs or less, letting him get to the turn and do something goofy with a hand that has <10% equity makes us a lot of chips even if he doesn't do it very often.

Thanks for the post, I played a similar hand some months back at a live FT and made the same mistake with pretty much the same result. This is the reason that I still read the forums almost every day.

real good analysis here thanks a lot guys. i come from the thought process of pretty much always betting flop here w this hand and neverscared really put a diff thought process in my head which i really like. curious to ask, does this change if we are much deeper (3-400bbish)? i think your reasoning for checking flop here ~200-250bbs deep is spot on but do you think it also can be carried over if we are much deeper again assuming we have position?

I think the only difference as we get significantly deeper is that against certain x/r ranges (ones that include K8+ and 9Tdd, for instance), this may be a hand we want to 3b flop and empty the clip with. Absent any kind of read, it's hard to envision a scenario where we want to put enough bets in that the incremental ones matter. I suppose as stacks get deeper, the threat of an overbet on some street does get more tangible.

I'd cbet/call, call, make a decision (prob fold as described). Repping bluff-catcher while having a combo with sdv in position is pretty sweet imo...

I expect to get c/c'd by worse (Qx, 8x, all fd's, JT, AJ, AT, and some floats) a lot. I expect to get x/r'd almost never this deep (well maybe a little more than that during tournament time), and I don't mind playing poker in position if it happens. I want to start building a pot- with the option of checking back turn. And lastly, I'm not free rolling all their turned sets and Ax's.

+1

I think 3 betting flop is an option. When you just call the flop raise you really can't do anything but call a turn bet when this card hits.