1/3 NL - 9 handed Table just formed a couple orbits ago. I have not played a hand. UTG1 has played straight forward. He is literally the definition of a "random guy." Only thing I saw him show down, he bet his Qs on a 4 flush board in a small pot, got a call and was good. $400 Effective stacks. Onto the hand:

UTG+1, and 2 others limp.
I call as well OTB with 66. $16 in pot

Flop is Kc 6h 5s - checks to me, I bet $12, UTG1 calls, others fold. $40 in pot

Turn is 3h - Check, I bet $35, UTG Calls. $110 in the pot

River is the Ah - And here is where it gets interesting... I bet $50 and UTG1
makes it $150...I folded.

On the river I am faced with a conundrum. If I bet, I don't believe many hands are calling this river that I beat, I know that sounds nitty but there are not really many. So I decided to size down my bet just to try to get a call.
Then again, the smaller sizing may induce this type of bluff raise from villain!
The hands that call would only beat a bluff and I guess they could put me on a missed straight draw... So I had to bet I believe, what do you think about the bet and the sizing?

As played, what range do you think UTG1 raises with? What is the worst hand you would call if you were me?

edit: worth noting I'm getting $310 to $100 or 3:1 on my money here as well

You beat value hands - he can have 55/A5/A6. Don't fold when that is the case.

Also I don't know your limping range but it probably doesn't contain many 74s/42s hands. This is the best hand you can possibly have.

Edit: **** didn't see the flush come in! Good fold

Yeah, FWIW if the river is like the Ac or something I would snap call...
The Ah makes thinks tough because he could conceivably play KxHH hands this way, so he could have KQhh, KJhh, KThh, K9hh, etc, maybe some of those combos bet the flop some check but he can certainly have them.

yeah. I mean this is always a flush in my experience. You would have to be playing against a world class player to consider calling this.

I always ask the guy to show when i make big folds like this - sometimes they oblige.

I am sigh calling this off, expecting to see runner runner nonsense enough but not enough to fold it. We are heavily underrepped with middle set here as our line was bet/bet/bet. The flush came in backdoor. There's more merit to folding if the draw was there when V called on the flop.

No decision should be unexpected, you should be planning to bet/fold or bet/call before making the bet

I'm not folding this river, I've seen enough passive play at 1/3 to know that AK could be in his range here...sure he will definitely show up with flushes, but given the price I think it's bad to fold

This one I call. In unraised pots players usually donk the river to make sure it doesnt get x/x. He's basically trying too hard to rep a flush here in a spot where weak hands usually fold.

On the previous hand that he got there with Qs, was he calling since flop with a backdoor flushdraw?
If so, it’s a pretty clear bet/fold to me.
You could be betting $35, tho. To maybe have some weak 2p, Ax and Kx calling and to have a better price to call the XR. Lets say V. keeps the raise pattern (3x) and makes it $105. Now you are getting better odds AND with the smaller sizing you have induced even more bluffs from a random guy.
Half pot 3 barrel can be really scary on 1/3 pool.

I've had some time to think about the hand this morning while not flabbergasted and here is what I have come up with. FWIW I am still not sure what to do, but now I know what the villains range would need to look like in order to consider calling.

$310 in the pot, $100 to call, I need to win 25% of the time to break even. BTW, I did not consider this on the river!! I was so focused on "River check raise in these games = nuts."

So basically, I gave him the reasonable flush combos, but discounted AK, KQ, and perhaps should discount one other kx to represent the times he bets the flop. He was oop vs several players so I think kings check there a lot to control pot.
I also gave him the flush combos where he had a straight draw on the flop.

I also gave him some of the missed straight draws as bluffs. Lets say he makes this play sometimes with 87 and sometimes with 43.

MP2 70.00% KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 4s3s, 8s7d, 8s7h
BU 30.00% 6h6s

Boom - that is what his range would need to look like in order for me to call. I think three bluff combos there is pretty reasonable. Any less and i am losing money at about 22%. But this is a pretty tight range, wouldn't you agree!? So lets look at all the factors...

1. I've got the top of my range and my hand is extremely under repped.
2. I'd probably bet more with a flush
3. I had been playing tight and certainly am not a station

So, I definitely should have called. I think if the villain check raised all in or made it like 250, I fold. But he unknowingly priced me in and I made a big mistake folding.

Results: Villain showed 73o after I folded

I play the hand pretty much the exact same way (might size turn down just slightly as we're not always head, but whatever).

ETA: I'm still fine with the hand knowing the results. Keep track of the number of times you see typical players pulling bluff/raises on the river (especially against constant strength); it's very rare overall (exceptions obviously being maniac or aggro players). And the majority of the poker population also doesn't overvalue two pear or even straights here when the flush comes in; they check/call or perhaps blocking bet, but they don't check/raise. You ran into a unicorn case, it happens, but don't let it make you become results oriented, imo.

Gnicehand,imoG

Thanks!

Great sizings otf and ott.

Think river i go bigger and snap fold to raise

Ap meh cuz you could have induced but still folding

Why bet $50 OTR and then fold to the raise getting 3-1 on your money? If you're really worried about V having a flush, check-call and get to showdown for $50 as opposed to $150.

You bet all 3 streets, and the flush came in backdoor. What hand with 2 hearts is V calling your flop bet with? Kx of hearts or 54 of hearts.....and if he's really straightforward, it's probably KQ, KJ, KT, or 54 of hearts. 4 combos. Many combos of 55, A6, A5, or even AK if he was limping in looking to 3 bet preflop. You can't fold your set getting this price.

I see a lot of "lol fold" suggestions here that I dont think really address what happened in this hand. Just because it's live and the fish bet doesnt mean you fold. Screw hand combos and equity and all that, you just have to know how live players think. This is actually not only a call but a snap call.

Here's why this is a fold in a raised pot but a call in a limped pot:

In a raised pot V has a lot more incentive to stay in the hand even if his calling range is as wide as 73o. He flops a gutter, he turns a pair, he now has what is in his mind "suckout odds". He inherently recognizes you are much more invested in the hand having raised pre so his motivation to trap is significantly higher. The pot is bigger and the risk is worth the reward. Plus his hand is disguised and you look like you could easily have a big top pair hand that would always value bet the river.

But a limped pot changes everything. Fish tend to project their tendencies on to their opponents, and since he's clearly playing ATC he probably ranges you pretty weak. He thinks you could have like A6o or K2 or whatever. He'd normally expect you to check those hands on the river, so if he has the nuts he's going to donkbet to make sure he gets paid. But he didnt donkbet so we can immediately rule out monsters.

Appreciate your analysis! The only thing I want to mention in response to this post and a few others is this... Villain is not necessarily a fish. In fact I have no reason to believe so. "random guy" literally means just that. He could possibly be a fish but could also be one of the crushers. FWIW I just started playing cards again after a 4-5 year hiatus and don't know anyone who plays in my area anymore. So this is entirely read-less and our play should be based on the population at 1/3 not so much somebody who is certainly a fish.

But I totally understand what you're saying, basically that in an unraised pot people are less likely to go for a value check raise on the river.

We're in position, so you'd be advocating a check back? We're missing far too much value checking back a hand this strong, imo.

We'll mostly be getting decent 3:1 odds (or even greater) facing a river raise most of the time; and yet we should almost never be calling them against the majority of opponents unless we have super nuttish hands. I also come from Limit, where it is completely standard to bet/fold hands on the river (where we'll often be getting as good as 10+:1 to make the call of the raise, and yet we mostly shouldn't be making that call against most players).

Gunicorncase,imoG

And most of the live player poker population you'll be up against don't bluff/raise the river, let alone against a guy who has shown constant strength (which is all we've done postflop by bet/bet/betting, including betting into 4 opponents on the flop). And a decent amount of the population still go for the tarping check/raise when they hit a monster. There's a lotta hands that are ahead of us (turned straight, rivered flush, slowplayed set of AA/KK from first hand in preflop). Not a crapload of busted draws to turn in bluffs. Not a crapload of hands that are going to be overvalued on this runout (especially when a major characteristic of most live players is MUBSyness, which is well established due to their constant losing).

Obviously we now have a better read on this guy to perhaps know better against him in the future, but in general check/raises on the river by the majority of the poker population are purely value nuttish.

Gunicorncase,imoG