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1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? 1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet?

04-11-2017 , 04:35 PM
V1 (UTG): early 50s WG; straight forward fit or fold - $300 stack

V2 (SB): 40s WG in a hoodie; very passive station; rarely makes it to the River - $400 stack

H: early 30s WG. First time at this casino. I'm still in my first orbit and have won one small hand with a c/c c/c donk River line and no showdown. - $530 stack

OTTH…

Hero Stack/Eff. Stack: $530/$300
Hero Hand: 67s
Hero Pos: MP1
PF Action: UTG (V) limps; Hero raises to $12; folds; SB (V2) and UTG call
Pot: $38
Flop: Q73r
Flop Action: UTG bets $10; Hero calls; SB folds
Pot: $58
Turn: 6x
Turn Action: UTG bets $40; Hero calls
Pot: $138
River: Kx
River Action: UTG checks; Hero action ??
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-11-2017 , 05:18 PM
You're only getting paid by Qx here, so I go $75 and hope very passive station calls.
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 11:51 AM
Your 1/3 NL game (which looks to be a $500 max BI?) plays *completely* differently than my 1/3 NL game if a $12 raise in MP after one limper gets this 3ways. I'd fold preflop at my table, but looks like you know your table. Overall, I think it's too aggressive/optimistic.

We're getting about 5:1 on the call and in position, so an ok spot to chase a 5-outer (8.5:1). Although, there is still another person to react, and if we're not up against Qx but instead 77/33, we could be in a very poor RIO situation if we hit on the turn.

The turn is where the RIO start coming into play. This passive fit/fold guy is now continuing to bet and large. We're praying he has Qx and not 77/33. I'm also calling and probably soul reading on the river.

River is actually a fairly terrible card as KQ just got there, and that could easily be the most likely hand he is playing (KQ is limped all the time, and yet will almost always call a preflop raise). It's very possible he MUBSily checked due to being afraid of KK or a disguised set. He's never going to play back at us. I might go for a very small value bet hoping to get payed off by AQ/QJ, so like a lol $40 or something stupid small like that.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 03:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
looks to be a $500 max BI?
Yepper. And $12 doesn't always get it three ways, I just had some particularly tight folks on my left this day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I might go for a very small value bet hoping to get payed off by AQ/QJ, so like a lol $40 or something stupid small like that.
I've been experimenting with smaller river bets with my medium strength hands in position and have been surprised by how light I've been called down by the bluffcatching mentality and also how many stronger hands have folded face-up. Sometimes I worry that I'm missing value though and facing a check/jam would suck too.

Spoiler:
Hero raises to $40; UTG calls and shows AQo.
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 03:49 PM
didnt see spoiler

but raise turn man. I like all of it til the turn call.

AP, bet river for 1/2.

edit-saw spoiler- yup you could have stacked him. but NH on preflop and flop.
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol-leks
Spoiler:
Hero raises to $40; UTG calls and shows AQo.
Fairly nice hand postflop (with preflop being debatable and flop being so/so), imo. ETA: Although I guess there will be those who will want to raise the turn, so I guess that's debatable too. I'm ok with postflop, but I'm passive like that.

If he check/jams, trivial fold against a straightforward fit/fold player. Against a much trickier / difficult player, you could perhaps even think of checking the river behind, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 03:59 PM
^^^

bro your tight. you must have the discipline of a horse.
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 04:02 PM
Turn is an easy raise and your river bet is way too small
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 04:07 PM
Against an EP fit/fold player who called a raise preflop, I fear that raising the turn too often gets him to dump hands that we want to call (and isolates us against hands that crush us too often). We're in position, we can get an appropriate street of value out of him on the river (and perhaps even make a hero fold too if the situation warrants it).

Unless the guy is just a complete fish that will stack off with one pair to aggression (but I'm not reading things that way).

GimoG
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 04:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball
Turn is an easy raise
I think the turn raise was a clear miss, given his holding...but was hoping for one more street from one pair hands.

Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball
your river bet is way too small
Do you think he's calling more? As is, he gave a pissed-call. And if he has us crushed by a set or KQ, we snap fold to his c/r and lose the min... Merits of those considerations?
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Against an EP fit/fold player who called a raise preflop, I fear that raising the turn too often gets him to dump hands that we want to call (and isolates us against hands that crush us too often). We're in position, we can get an appropriate street of value out of him on the river (and perhaps even make a hero fold too if the situation warrants it).

Unless the guy is just a complete fish that will stack off with one pair to aggression (but I'm not reading things that way).

GimoG
Cool, I get it. Also respect your posts and stuff, was just saying, your tight. haha.
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote
04-12-2017 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MK7749
Cool, I get it. Also respect your posts and stuff, was just saying, your tight. haha.
Definitely tight.

Not saying I'm right either. Not too many people get away from TPTK, so a raise on the turn playing for stacks may have been best in this case. Really opponent dependent.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 - Turned Two Pair - Sizing of River Value Bet? Quote

      
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