1/3: Turned top set but board becomes scary and villain bets big (too big?) - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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1/3: Turned top set but board becomes scary and villain bets big (too big?)

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07-31-2019 , 08:29 AM

#26

Koko the munkey

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by ionutd

x this flop hu, let alone mw
x turn is correct, you're really not supposed to bet anything at this point and I think a small raise is pretty nice and you would x/r small your turned fds, straights and sets
x/c is obv fine as well but not having a calling range looks to simplify the game tree

I'm legitimately not sure if you're serious or trolling.

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07-31-2019 , 09:00 AM

#27

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko the munkey

I'm legitimately not sure if you're serious or trolling.

this game is hard and playing deep oop is very hard but if you think "I have op or set I bet" makes it easier, bomb that flop and turn

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07-31-2019 , 01:53 PM

#28

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

"I have set, I bet" is actually probably the best single sentence of poker advice ever given on this forum.

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07-31-2019 , 01:59 PM

#29

Koko the munkey

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,412

I'm not sure which advice is worse, checking the flop with an overpair or checking the turn with a set when you are behind exactly one hand.

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07-31-2019 , 02:18 PM

#30

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,038

The reason for betting versus checking doesn't always boil down to simply "I'm likely ahead" versus "I'm likely behind", especially OOP to competent players.

As an aside example (admittedly nothing to do with this hand, but simply illustrating betting versus checking isn't as simple as you're making it out to be), as the preflop raiser we're most likely ahead with KK HU to an A92r flop and mostly likely behind with 87 (and yet we should probably be betting the latter at a much higher frequency than the former).

GimoG

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07-31-2019 , 02:42 PM

#31

Koko the munkey

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

The reason for betting versus checking doesn't always boil down to simply "I'm likely ahead" versus "I'm likely behind", especially OOP to competent players.

You're right - it doesn't always boil down to a simple, black and white decision. But sometimes it does.

Anyone can come up with a hundred examples/scenarios of why betting or checking isn't a clear decision, but I don't think any of those are relevant because each hand needs to be analyzed on its own (outside of any metagame considerations).

In this hand, there are two points where betting is the clear +EV decision. One is on the flop where you have an almost-certainly-best-but-still-vulnerable overpair and you need to charge draws and overcards. The second spot is on the turn with top set.

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07-31-2019 , 04:10 PM

#32

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,038

How is it clear that betting the turn is more EV than checking? Our opponent is likely going to bet all his monsters (doesn't matter if we bet or check), he'll mostly fold his mediocre hands to a bet (especially with an overcard coming) but might continue versus a check (checking is better), and he may be floating the flop to steal versus turn weakness (checking is better).

I'm not reading opponent as face up non-bluffy calling station, but if you are then betting is obviously fine.

GcluelessNLnoobG

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07-31-2019 , 04:43 PM

#33

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

Because betting turn gives V the chance to raise his monsters and play for stacks, GG. He can't raise us if we don't bet.

Also V's turn calling range is wider than his betting range.

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07-31-2019 , 05:08 PM

#34

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,038

I agree that it may be easier to play for stacks with a bet. Although I don't think there is a massive difference here (against monsters I don't think we'll have too much trouble making sure enough bets go in).

I disagree that opponents calling range is wider than his betting range (think it's the exact opposite).

GcluelessNLnoobG

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07-31-2019 , 06:00 PM

#35

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

All straight draws and pair + gutshots are calling a turn bet, but likely checking behind if we check. (65, 96, T7, T8, 98, T8).

All turned pair + flush draws are calling a turn bet, but likely checking behind if we check. (A7ss, A8ss, 76ss, 75ss, 86ss, likely some other random spade combos as well)

Two pairs/sets will bet, but will also call our bet and possibly raise, so us betting is the better play against that portion.

I cannot think of a single combo that V could hold that will bet if we check, but would not call our turn bet. 33-66, 99-TT are the only potential candidates for that, but the vast majority of the time they check behind the turn.

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08-01-2019 , 10:53 AM

#36

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,038

From OP's description of villain, I'm not reading him as someone who is just going to passively check behind a lot of his hands. Methinks we face a bet almost always if we check, but maybe I'm misreading into things.

GcluelessNLnoobG

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08-01-2019 , 01:35 PM

#37

Koko the munkey

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

How is it clear that betting the turn is more EV than checking?

Because putting money in the pot when we are ahead is +EV in the vast majority of situations.

It really is that simple.

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08-01-2019 , 02:15 PM

#38

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,038

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko the munkey

Because putting money in the pot when we are ahead is +EV in the vast majority of situations.

It really is that simple.

I know we're going in circles on this, but I think where we differ is that you seem to be of the opinion that the ~only time money goes into this pot on the turn is when we're the ones betting. If that's the case, by all means, bet.

GI'mnotreadingthatasthecaseG

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08-01-2019 , 03:14 PM

#39

charlie_t_jr

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 699

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

??? This is 1/3...bet for value w overpair...bet for value with top set...all though with the way he described opponent I like the check on Turn to get him to put in the pot sized bet. But it seems this was not the OP's intent.

??? Its 1/3...LIVE

Bet for value...

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08-01-2019 , 03:15 PM

#40

Koko the munkey

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,412

GG I think that IS the case here. V called preflop and called the flop bet of $25. There isn't a good reason to think that he's going to wake up and barrel the turn if we check to him. Obviously the results were great here, but I don't think in general that 1/2 or 1/3 players are going to start firing just because you checked. Our opponents are too mubsy and not aggressive enough.

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08-01-2019 , 03:17 PM

#41

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,038

@ charlie

I play in a room where 1/3 NL live is the lowest stake available.

It's also the highest stake available.

@ koko

If that's the read you're getting from OP's description of villain, then I have zero problem with a turn bet. I just don't think we're getting the same read here (you're reading more passive MUBSy ABC run-of-the-mill opponent than I am).

Gnothingirksmemorethan"it's1/3NL,live"comments,imoG

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08-01-2019 , 04:09 PM

#42

charlie_t_jr

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 699

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

I shouldn't be quite so cavalier, I certainly do encounter thinking players at 1/3. But this does seem to be hand worth two streets of value on the flop. I like the turn check, but OP doesn't seem to be checking to induce...

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08-01-2019 , 04:14 PM

#43

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,038

Quote:

Originally Posted by charlie_t_jr

but OP doesn't seem to be checking to induce...

That's a fair enough read, and I don't disagree with that.

Gthinlinebetweenfishandexpert,imoG

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08-02-2019 , 03:15 PM

#44

AA Suited

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,269

Quote:

Originally Posted by ionutd

x this flop hu, let alone mw

Why check the flop with overpair when I'm the preflop raiser??

Quote

08-02-2019 , 03:37 PM

#45

AA Suited

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,269

Quote:

Originally Posted by AA Suited

and yeah, i'll post the result in a few days

And here's the result.

My thought process:
If v had a straight, why bet so big?
Is anyone that worried about a runner runner flush draw?

If he had a good but non nut hand, I'd expect him to check behind.
Thus I concluded he's bluffing or semi-bluffing.
Didn't know if he would call a c/r if semi bluffing So I c/c his huge turn bet. (If I c/r, I'm repping the straight.)

River was a blank.
I checked hoping he would bluff again.
He checked.

He had T

for tp with gutshot.

No idea why he bet so big on the turn unless his mind was still focused on him having a weak draw?

What do you think of my thought process?

Last edited by AA Suited; 08-02-2019 at 03:45 PM.

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08-02-2019 , 04:56 PM

#46

WereBeer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,776

I would 100% bet the turn for reasons I stated earlier and then bet river.

With turn AP I check river and hope to get another bet so I can raise.

FWIW your line probably got more because I don't pot the turn and I'm not small betting the river so he should fold the river.

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08-02-2019 , 05:19 PM

#47

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by AA Suited

And here's the result.

My thought process:
If v had a straight, why bet so big?
Is anyone that worried about a runner runner flush draw?

No idea why he bet so big on the turn unless his mind was still focused on him having a weak draw?

What do you think of my thought process?

None of this matters, OP, so the thought process once you check turn isn't relevant because we should never be in this spot. You have the effective nuts on the turn. Bet turn for value. Bet river for value. Sometimes the game really is that simple. Stop having MUBS.

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