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1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? 1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff?

06-25-2017 , 09:46 AM
1/3

4 limps, Hero limps 9c7d OTB, V ($800) in SB raises to $12, 3 calls, Hero ($1000) calls

Flop ($60): 962cc
V bets $20, UTG1 and CO call, Hero calls

Turn ($140): Kc
V bets $20, CO ($800) calls, Hero ?

Reads on V: Raises $20 with premiums pre, smaller with more speculative hands. Small cbet = weak hands/bluffs (like he feels compelled to cbet everytime he raises), big cbet = stronger hands. Views Hero as super-tight, as Hero just laid down top two to V's $800 check/shove over a $30 cbet in a $60 pot.

Reads on UTG1, CO: Fairly straightforward weak/tight MAWGs. Call with their weak hands, raise with stronger hands.

I know preflop is meh, but let's ignore that as we're OTB and can play ATC profitably against this fishy table this deep.


I was considering folding flop but the board is too drawy and we're in position with TP and some backdoor equity, so given the price,
I call. Do you guys fold here ever?


Turn, it's pretty obvious V is capped at stuff like KQ,
and CO never has a flush as he would raise here. Should we turn our 9 into a bluff in this spot given all the dynamics and our image?


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Part 2: Hero chickens out and just calls turn.

River ($200): 3s
V bets $35, CO folds, Hero ??

V never has a flush/2p+ here as he'd bet those harder OTF/OTT. Can I realistically rep a flush now or am I getting looked up by KQ or something? Call/raise/fold?
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-25-2017 , 05:24 PM
Obviously fold pre twice
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-25-2017 , 06:20 PM
You won't be able to keep people from commenting on preflop. Probably half the time it's actually the biggest mistake in the hand.

In your case I think the first limp is OK, it's marginal but you have the button and are getting good odds. After the raise you should give up, without being suited there are just not enough decent flop. Exactly because of flops like there where you flopped top pair but should probably still give up the flop. You where fishing for a good hand, not TPWK. If there was no other call on the flop you could call but once somebody else gets involved it's just too risky.

After that your two other questions about raising are entirely villain specific. How often does he give up his marginal hands to raises? How suspicious will he be on the turn? Will your turn check make him more likely to call river? Will he call turn with a single high club? Does his small turn bet indicate he has a club or that he lacks one? How does having more people and a bigger pot change things? I could say something about how villain should react but your villain is fishy enough that means nothing.
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-25-2017 , 08:32 PM
^ If limping is OK, I don't see how you can fold ATC for $9 more after 3 callers.. that has to be a mistake.

However, I do agree that flop is a fold after so many people show interest.
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-25-2017 , 08:53 PM
Remember though that there is more betting to come. After the raise preflop its definitely a fold because although like you said, for that price you almost certainly have the absolute equity to call, hands like 97o will have massive trouble realising that equity and the times they do realise their equity and win at showdown, you will have holdings that will be very difficult to bet for value and quite often may have to fold the best hand to bluffs. In addition you run the risk of being taken to the cleaners buy hands that dominate yours like A9. So although you have absolute equity, and the BTN does help with your realised equity, still a fold pre. PS I don't think limping is ok here either

As for the rest of the hand, I agree with your flop call. Agree its a drawy board and think you are very exploitable if you fold TP to one CBet, even after a couple other callers. On the turn, I think its a clear call and your play is right again. The price is so good you can absolutely never fold, even if youre drawing to two pair/trips or even if your flush draw is good once in a blue moon. There are so many better hands to bluff raise with. Holding the ace of clubs with no showdown would be my number one candidate, then you can mix in some open ended straight draws that you dont mind folding to a bet/shove or even some combo draws you may have. If anything I think a 9 is a bad candidate here because you block the cutoff from having 9s, a non drawing hand that he may want to fold to a raise. Also from an exploitative point of view, I think multi way any good clubs will call a medium sized bluff raise in low stakes cash games so your fold equity is reduced.

River seems like the best place to check raise if your reads are correct and you think Vs range is mainly made of TT-QQ, especially after the CO folds. You can rep a straight, two pair or slow played monsters (although on a drawy board there's probably not many of these in your range, maybe ace high flush)

Just my opinion, feel free to correct me
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-25-2017 , 11:40 PM
Preflop I think you played this fine. I would probably call the isolate up to about $20.

Flop Why did you consider folding the flop getting 7:1, the advantage of position on a flushing board, and a backdoor flush draw? A bit of a loaded question but I'm interested in knowing why.

Turn Vs this bet sizing and on this texture I think callings just the clearest option. I don't know how your local player pool plays but I do think in general that you're going to be ahead a ton far more than the pot odds justifies. My question on the flop applies here as well.

River Again I think its a relatively (at least to me) clear call with the insane odds you're getting. I wouldn't be surprised to see a hand like 22 or Ac3c a bunch of the time; I don't necessarily think you're going to be ahead 50% of the time but just way ahead enough of the time to justify the call. Again why did you consider folding the river, or even raising when you're just offered insane odds on a call?

My advice for similar spots:

1. Try not to overcomplicate things versus small bets or try to work out they mean; the mathematics just dictate you should call a lot and be thankful for the great price you're being offered.
2. These types of players are often either limit players, or some guy just messing around. Again don't put too much thought into what they mean, or do anything fancy; just accept the fact it doesnt make too much sense and just call down and smile if you lose the hand :3
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-26-2017 , 01:58 AM
Preflop is whatever. I probably play it the same. It's hard to go far wrong OTB.

Turn obviously pull the trigger, this is why we're able to play so loose IP, because these guys turn their hands face up. I mean I'd do it even without holding a club.

I'd raise OTR as well, if you make it 180 it has to work 44% of the time, I reckon we can swing that.
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-26-2017 , 02:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Preflop is whatever. I probably play it the same. It's hard to go far wrong OTB.

Turn obviously pull the trigger, this is why we're able to play so loose IP, because these guys turn their hands face up. I mean I'd do it even without holding a club.

I'd raise OTR as well, if you make it 180 it has to work 44% of the time, I reckon we can swing that.

I was waiting to hear this. TBH, I think our hand doesn't matter. His betsizing does.

P.S. $135 accomplishes the same thing as $180 OTR, no?
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-26-2017 , 02:45 AM
raise to $20 pre. Youll get one caller and $13 in dead money. Position is far less valuable multiway.

I guess if you make it $150 on turn or river youll get enough fold equity for it to be EV+.
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-26-2017 , 02:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk
I was waiting to hear this. TBH, I think our hand doesn't matter. His betsizing does.

P.S. $135 accomplishes the same thing as $180 OTR, no?
Nah. I mean to a competent player it reps the same thing, but you're making it too easy for this guy to just click call. Even 180 I'm a bit wary isn't enough.

One adjustment I had to make when moving from playing competent players online to dribblers live is that most of them don't try to decipher bet sizes at all. Like they don't think "well 135 is a small raise, but that makes sense, he'd do that with a flush because he's trying to get calls from one pair hands". Instead there's some number they think their hand is "worth" and if you raise less than that they call, more than that they fold.
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-26-2017 , 02:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomark
raise to $20 pre. Youll get one caller and $13 in dead money. Position is far less valuable multiway.

I guess if you make it $150 on turn or river youll get enough fold equity for it to be EV+.

Honestly, I wouldn't make it $150 with a flush here as I'd be wanting calls.
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote
06-26-2017 , 12:41 PM
I probably also overlimp on the Button preflop. We're getting a decent price, closing the action, deep, and will be in good position, so all good reasons to call the preflop raise; still, it's such meh a hand it does seem a little leakish, but I probably sigh call anyways.

Trivial fold on the flop, imo. We didn't play 97o to hit TPNK when 3 people are interested in the hand. Yeah, we're getting good odds; who cares. We could be drawing dead, and our "outs" might have huge RIO. Preflop is a trivial fold both times if we're calling the flop, imo.

Turn we're getting insane Limit-like odds, but raiser is still betting (admittedly lol small) on a terrible card (he could just be setting his price with a set that doesn't like that flush coming in), and with 2 other callers on the flop there's a decent chance one of them just hit the flush (and yet isn't sure it's nuttish enough to raise or doesn't want to scare anyone out). I would probably sigh fold the turn, although it's closer than the flop given these lol odds.

A bluff on the river might work against some of the weakish hands. The thing is this is the 4th consecutive street this guy has bet. Yeah, he probably doesn't have a flush. But there's an ok chance he has a set. And sets don't like folding.

ETA: Everyone who wants to raise the turn realizes it isn't HU, right?

Glearntofold,imoG
1/3: Turn middle pair into a bluff? Quote

      
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