Hey guys,

I posted this hand but realized I completely messed it up earlier in my last post. I really need some clarity on this b/c it is still bothering me to no end. This is a 1/3 game

H: has about 350 V has never played with hero no reads. Playing a little passively some might know im a little tilted bc i lost a decent pot before this
V: brand new to the table 40's raised one hand other than that this is probably his 5th hand he has seen. Has around 175

OTTH: 2 limpers hero is in the HJ with J10: raises to 15 (could have gone larger) Button (V) calls BB calls two ep limpers fold.
Flop is J 10 7
Everyone checks to me and i bet 50 with top two but three diamonds. button jams
Hero?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

22,770 games 0.005 secs 4,554,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Td 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.935% 25.90% 10.03% 5898 2284.50 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 64.065% 54.03% 10.03% 12303 2284.50 { TT, 77, KdQd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Qd9d, Qd8d, JTs, Js7s, Ts7s, 9c8c, 9h8h, 9s8s, 6d5d, AdJh, AdJs, KdJh, KdJs, JTo }

This is a fairly tight range (never shoving TP without the nut/2nd nut flush draw, never shoving QJ, 2 pairs discounted to 1 combo each) etc and it's still a pretty clear call given pot odds. An unknown player likely gets it in wider than this so yea sucks when he has it but I'm not folding.

Without much info on V, it is hard to put a range on him: maybe 22-JJ, although you do have blockers to JJ, TT, so downgrade those two a bit. AK, AQ, some of the larger SCs (98-KQ).

So, if my math is right, after the shove, the pot is $276 and you have to put another $160 to call, and BB still to act. Around 9/5 odds.

Tough call with no reads, V could have made flush, 77, made straight, or a great draw to a flush and straight.

Or air!

IDK, tough to lay down two pair to an unknown, I would like to think I would suck it up and call, but I am a bit on the passive side and don't like getting it all in when I could well be behind.

i fold and dont feel too badly about it

in my opinion that pokerstove sim sets villain's range too wide.

We need 37% equity to call. If he has a flush, we don't have it. If he can do this with an ace or king flush draw with TP, we do. I think the decision is pretty close. I'd be more inclined to call if the villain is acting like he doesn't want a call. He isn't talking, he seems stiff, there's an odd change of behavior. I'd be less inclined to call if when he shows you a set, you're going to go on tilt. I don't mean monkey tilt, I mean you're going to be thinking, "damn it, I should have known better not to call." The tilt you're going to be under is going to cost you more than equity mistake you would potentially make with this hand.

For most players, it means folding.

Villain has $175 to start the hand as per the OP, after the action calling the shove is $110 to win $260 so we need under 30% equity.

I think folding is pretty crazy given how much lighter people will punt in half stacks than 100bb+ ones here.

If you're giving him more possible flushes than my sim then IMO you need to give him more TP type hands too and I really doubt he just calls 15 pre with a 175 stack to fold TP on the flop.

After two limpers and with still 4 players left behind us who haven't indicated how they like their hands, I'm more for simply overcalling here preflop. After the Button/BB call, I'm absolutely shocked the limpers didn't call this relatively mediocre raise size to make the 5way.

If BB is same stack size as Button, the SPR is only 3.5 on this flop and we have top two pair. Yes, there are flushes and straights, but there are also big draws, TP (possibly + draw), worse two pair, overpair, etc. I'm feeling pretty committed here at this point if a horrible card doesn't show up, so I'm probably PSBing flop to jam a safe turn. I snap call the raise.

If we're building huge pots with mediocre hands preflop and then hit that hand about as good as we're going to with a small SPR, we just sorta gotta go with it, imo.

ETA: Good points by papa regarding how easy a $175 stack can go in here in a relatively big pot in a 1/3 NL game; if he was shipping in a $300+ stack, ok, that'd be different, but just $160 into an already $95 pot, there's enough weak sauce in here to happily call, imo.


GcluelessNLnoobG

+1
Have seen people that appeared to be TAG or even nits lose a significant portion of their stack get down to 40-50bb level and then just look for opportunities like this to gii with big draws, in spots where they think they are flipping. have been guilty of doing this myself where i know i should just rebuy to a full stack but start actively seeking big spots with shared equity to try and push someone around or at worst get stacks in and flip.