Early in the session, we are $225 effective. Hero (HJ) has not shown down any hands yet, I've maybe played 2-3 hands in the first orbit and a half. Hero is early 30's white guy.

V (CO) is a somewhat ABC TAG, late 20s/early 30s white guy. Saw him open TT over limpers to $20, then raise a donkbet on J86 twotone flop. Turn brought in the flush draw and it checked through, river was a fourth flush card and V called a small donkbet with his ten high flush. Other than that hand, he has mostly been folding.

OTTH

Folds to Hero in the hijack with J9, who opens to $15. V flats, BTN folds, blinds fold.

Flop ($30 after rake): K 5 3

Hero bets 21, V calls.

Turn ($70) 9

Hero bets 40 for value from 66-88 or any weird straight draws, and also to potentially fold TT-QQ hands. Hero also didn't like idea of c/c. V calls.

River ($150) T

Not a great card as one of our hands we would hope to bluff out now won't fold (TT). Hero still thinks a merge bet would work, 66-88 might get sticky and have us on AQ/AJ, JJ/QQ/weak Kx might even fold to a triple barrel, and Hero can set a better price by blocking b/f as opposed to c/c.

Hero bets $50.

Thoughts?

Unless those behind / blinds are uber loose, I'm probably also opening any hand I'm considering playing when fold to me in the HJ.

I'd also cbet the flop against this guy, repping a K (he's putting us on AK). I'd probably only go 1/2 PSB but 2/3 PSB ain't bad. Basically, unless bet is uber small ($3) or uber large ($75) he's probably just going to call when he has a hand and fold when he doesn't, so I'd lean towards as small as bet as possible.

I'd probably check the turn. He's never folding Kx or a set, and he probably checks back 88- a lot. No need to turn our hand into a bluff against the small set of QQ-TT (which may have reraised preflop). Him betting would suck, but I'd probably fold as the history hand shows him as fairly ABCish.

Ditto for river.

I think we're overthinking things, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I have a hard time believing a TAG/ABC player is going to call down 3 barrels with 66-88.

When on the river you say "He might fold Kx, but call with 66-88" this is cognitive dissonance.

You have SDV, have a really hard time getting called by worse so Im looking to check turn/river.

if this was a very draw heavy board I could maybe be in favor of a bet

-Once he calls OTF we are behind his range
-88-66 is not calling the turn
-76s is the only weird straight draw that might call OTF
-QQ-TT is not folding OTT
-If you are going to bluff the river I prefer a bet of $120. $50 gets called by all better hands, folds out worse
-c/eval. turn is probably best.

Interesting hand.

The only problem i have w a blocking bet here is that there are so few hands that he couldn't floated two streets and then Bluff. I see the straight draws and mid pairs, I just honestly don't think most of them call the turn.

By that same logic I guess I rule out a value bet largely. So then we consider Bluff, which I don't think the sizing is appropriate for. His hand almost looks exactly like QQ or maybe KJ or something. Idk that's kind of a game flow decision to try and Bluff those here.

Overall I think I just c/f against a reasonable opponent.

Does a guy who raises TT preflop and then raises a donkbet on a J high flop flat QQ/etc. with just $225 behind to a HJ open?

GI'dbeverysurprisedifthisguyshowsupwithabigpocketp air,imoG

Not really - that's why I called it a merge play in the title. I made the bet because I expected V to do one or the other often enough (i.e. 1 in 3 times) that the play was worthwhile. Obviously I don't expect him to do both.

Kookie, I agree that if I were on a pure bluff, a bigger river bet is in order. But isn't that also polarizing our range? Do we really go for 3 streets with that sizing holding TP type hands here? We'd have to be either on AA, a set, or maybe KT/K9. Strangely, if villain holds a weak Kx, I almost wonder if he's more likely to fold to a smaller river bet (almost post oak bluff type, if I remember the terminology right), because it just LOOKS like it's pure value, but it's still higher in absolute dollars than the turn bet.

GG, no I don't really expect him to have a large PP here. I certainly would expect him to 3! QQ typically on balance. However, I have no idea if he would 3! me pre with TT/JJ. Looking back throughout the entire hand, JJ actually seems somewhat likely with how the hand was played. If he has TT, well, we're going to find out very soon, and probably for much cheaper than we would if we tried to c/c.

This is not a merge play sir. You described villian as TAG ABC. TAG ABC isn't calling 4 bets with 66-88 on this board. He just isn't. This is a bluff whether you want to believe that or not.

Preflop and flop are fine. Turn is mostly a check and betting river would require some evidence that villain can fold say KJ. Without that evidence you are burning money IMO

V was described as somewhat ABC Tag, and we've only seen him play one hand. I'm fine with agreeing that there is more bluff than value in the bet, but I don't think it's a pure bluff. If it were, I'd size it much higher.

Turn is a check and probably a check/fold.

I don't know why you think V would still have 66-88 by the river. Or why he'd ever call with those hands. Might be OK if villain was an incredible station, but he's not. I don't think he'll any fold Kx, but maybe... though point being, this is only a bluff imo.

It's really not a merge. A merge is *not* a bet that might get villain to make a calling mistake or a folding mistake at the same time. The "merge" in "merge" is when you depolarize a generally polarized range, adding in weaker absolute value hands that may seem less intuitive as value hands but that will beat villain's relatively wide call range.

Unless you have a significant dynamic, there really isn't a merge opportunity here.

I don't think it's useful to say that he might fold JJ and he might call with 88. I think he's most likely to fold turn with all of those hands anyway. The only time it really makes sense to make a combo bluff/value bet is when you think V will fold sdv hands that have you beat and call with draws that have less than 50% equity against your hand, like if you have 22 on a AsKs9c8c board and you think your opponent has a pocket pair and suited connector heavy range. What you're engaged in really is cognitive dissonance.

I think villain has very few draws/bluffs on the turn, so I would c/f once we make some showdown value. We beat a lot of his flop calling range now, but he'll fold pretty much everything we beat to a turn bet. Occasionally we will fold the best hand, but when villain bets turn we are behind so frequently that it is not profitable to call. I don't think it's good to assume that villains are floating flop, bluffing turn in 1/3 until we see them do it.

As played, I bet river, and I'm going to make it 105 to try to get him to fold hands worse than AK. I think this guy is 3 betting almost all combos of AK lp v. lp, so the only really strong hands he has here are 9 combos of sets. We are repping a very strong range here, and if v has never played against us before he should have a tough decision with KQ.

I don't see how you continue on this flop. Among other things, a skilled player will eat you alive if you're playing the "cbet" game from OOP. (In quotes, because "cbetting" from OOP is absolutely nothing like cbetting from the button.)

In all fairness, if you're willing to cbet trash like this from OOP, you're a lot stronger OTT than you usually are. But, I'm surprised and more than a little concerned that he didn't raise here. His calling range OTT is stronger than his raising range.

TLDR: Yes. No. Meh. NO!

Against described V this is pure bluff. It is very optimistic to expect V to have 66-88 after calling the turn, and borderline fantasy to expect V to call the end with those hands. If you made this thread because V snapped with 77, then V is not an ABC TAG.

Check turn.

I agree with many here: the thought that villain will call turn with a weaker hand is misguided. There would have to be some serious history.

River bet is a straight 3 ball bluff and small.

Pre is obviously fine.

Flop. I like a bet on such a dry flop

Turn. I do think a check is best here as we gain a little more info that way. Also if he checks back we can go for value pretty easily on river. (Also i know it does't matter at 1/3 but in terms of general poker thinking having hands like this is your checking range is good because it strengths it.) Yea we let some draws see a free card but there is a chance he bets those anyway and there aren't too many out there. Think i may like a bet a little more if we are IP because it gives us the option to x/b river

River. weird spot which is kind why i like checking the turn, especially when we are OOP. AP i may go super small as a blocking bet that may get some thin value. Also hope you realize that you can't fold out Kx and get called by 66-88 at the same type, unless villain has some major leaks in how he thinks about hands. Huge as a bluff is an option too but think our hands is too good to bluff with and the T is a pretty good card for his range. I think i check decide here just because there are not many combos of 66-88 and think that trying to go for value form specifically those hands is a little thin. Bet is ok tho

Turn bet is fine, now c/f river

If these guys are definitely calling a double barrel and possibly even a triple barrel with 66, then I'd never bluff.

Pre is fine.

Once he calls pre, we need to realize that our plan has gone awry. We made a light raise and got called by a decent player with position on us. Bummer, but it happens.

When we raise pre, we are always praying for those with position on us to fold and those we have position on to call. So when the cutoff or button calls, we must proceed with caution. To be honest, if a good player calls, I proceed with dread.

I like cbetting the flop. It's dry. Profitable bet. Again, getting called is a bummer. The poker gods just aren't cooperating, are they?

On the turn, we must do one of two things. A) barrel two more streets big, saying "all-in" on the river; or B) check/fold.

I like check/folding. I'd save air-barreling for times when our backdoor flush draw materializes.

Your line is the nut worst. It induces calls from weak kings, strong kings, and underpairs that beat us.

Rating: 1/10, where 5 is break even. Seriously, I think spazz check/raising a random street is more profitable than what you did.

If you had a read that he floated the flop and bet the turn when checked to often, I could get behind the turn bet more. And then we give up on the river. But your description didn't include this, so I really think we should just check/fold the turn.

OK, but I think there are other consequences of your behavior that may be more important than a price discount. Is this really a good spot to b/f?

I actually dislike the turn lead. At that point, the hand is stable and we are WAWB. I hate the lead bet intensely.

Disagree. I don't think we want to play against his calling range if he checks back the turn.

Seems I went against the grain here. Is the consensus really to c/f the turn? That seems so weak, as his flop calling range should be so much wider than Kx, including many hands that we now beat by the turn. However, c/c turn and river seems awful, and I don't think we can c/c the turn with a plan to c/f blank rivers.

Results: V thought a long time and eventually mucked.

Do you want to play the turn against his calling range or his betting range?

yeah, this
his flop calling range isnt the same as his turn betting range
planning to check fold doesnt mean you lose

Maybe. But, if you're OOP, then playing a broad range of hands pre with a high cbet% is also weak. If you don't get your fold OTF, you wind up OTT with a really weak range. Having the button is a huge advantage if you're gonna play this game, and here, somebody else has it.

You can't make that up with aggression alone; remember, the button's job is easy. All he has to decide is how often to fold when you bet, and how often to bet when you check. On the other hand, you have to look at what sort of range you're bringing to the flop and turn, and figure out how to play it. That requires a lot of thought and planning. You cannot just run the same old pfr/cbet routine from OOP against a competent player. It is not the same game.

As for a c/c, it depends on board texture and bet sizing. You don't have the texture; and even if you did, the problem with this sort of player is that they aren't always going to make the bet-sizing mistakes that will allow you to get to the end of the hand, especially if you're sitting on anything less than a giant stack. And even if you get there, they aren't always going to pay you off when you hit. To be clear, you don't always have to hit. But I think to profit from playing speculative hands OOP, you have to hit sometimes, and you need a payoff when you do. If they are gonna shut you down every single time, you're better off saving your money pre.

Look, you started off with a good plan. Raise pre, buy the button, hammer the fish from IP. Problem is, that plan didn't work out because you didn't get the button. Now, stop and think. It isn't even so much a question of going to plan B, it's if there is even a plan B to go with. There isn't, not here. You can't just stick with plan A, that's gone. Done.

No, but I would wager a typical V's turn betting range in this spot is almost the entirety of his flop calling range. Most Vs would see it as the "this guy raised preflop with two big cards, missed, fired one cbet on the flop, and is now giving up, so I should take this pot regardless of my cards" situation, no?

I don't always agree with GG, but he's spot on here.