Villain is a YWG, clearly smart. Seems like he's read a good deal of poker theory -- however, based on what I've seen of him play, he's overbluffing a ton. He seems to have a reasonable bluffing frequency on the flop, but the issue is that he rarely gives up any of those bluffs on the turn/river, so by the time he gets to the river he's often FOS. I think he's spewy, but I'm not sure how spewy. Like, I've seen him dump multiple buy-ins trying to run over players who call him down light. But normally he does try to pick his spots to run these huge bluffs, and he is sometimes successful. When he's running hot, this guy is very dangerous. He was sitting on a stack of 3000 BBs at 1/3 a few weeks back.
Hero is YWG viewed by Villain as competent. I have been running very well and have a good table image.
Hero's stack is 1800 and covers the table. Villain is constantly topping off to match Hero, now at 1500.
OTTH:
Hero makes it 20 in UTG+1 with 99, MP calls, Villain completes in the BB (he is very wide here, maybe 30-35% of hands).
Flop: 4
6
6
($60)
Villain checks, Hero bets 35, MP folds, Villain raises to 110, Hero calls.
Turn: 8
($280)
Villain bets $280.
This is probably the worst card in the deck, with the most likely straight coming in and 68s boating up -- I think Villain might even have all offsuit combos of 57 here. OTOH any 9-A on the turn is good for our range and we can certainly continue with overpairs some fraction of the time.
It feels dirty to fold 90% of our range against a player who recognizes how bad this card is for us, but is that the right course of action? Just wait for a better spot? If we're instamucking 99, I assume we're also instamucking AA. Is that fine?
Last edited by aisrael01; 03-23-2019 at 04:19 PM.