chances of HJ being dealt AA: 3/1326
KK: 6/1326
AK: 12/1326

So ~1.5% of the time HJ wakes up w/ a monster

1.5 + BU + SB +BB = 6% of the time someone behind you wakes up w/ a monster, seems pretty low right?

Im not addressing if AJ is the hand in this spot. I think vs an opponent like SB it is performing insanely well vs his range as described though.

To say "some hands im behind but some im ahead - so im about even" feels like you might not be conceiving or understanding the concept properly, but I might be wrong and that was just narrative exposition for purposes of communicating hand.

& before anyone jumps up - yes, there are hands in SBs range you are behind and hands you are ahead of but to phrase in the above way seems like you're just inserting AJ into the middle without actually considering what the range is?

Well you pick up the dead money but another way of thinking about it is you stack people and win the dead money when you hit sometimes VS the amount of times someone calls and has you 1. dominated or 2. flipping at best

Alternatively, you could just fold everythign save for QQ+/AKs and maybe occasionaly some A2-A5s for deception as it sounds like there is no drought of action there and you should do just fine.

Isn't calling tricky too, given that we'll likely see an 8way flop with a lol 4 SPR?

Gorarewe~nutmining?G

Honestly, that's kinda what I'm thinking (although more like TT+/AKs/AK). I'm guessing obviously EV, and I'm probably not passing up *that* much EV widening that range much more just to create super high variance spots. And maybe attempting to get into a hand for cheap in position with more speculative stuff if it looks like the field will let me.

GstillunsureG

Well thats the thing in this spot with a marginal hand that plays well post flop like AJ I'd rather just call and see a flop, the great odds are just another incentive to just call. Now if we had QQ+ or even 1010/AQ its a complete different story. But the thing I don't like is we are putting ourselves in a bad spot because if we are called we're dominated or flipping at best

I think folding can't be right.

If you jam, with your nit image, I would expect only KK+ to call. A priori it's 0.73% for each person to have KK+ given that you have AJo.

With 8 other people in the hand, it's about 6% likely that someone has KK+. For convenience, let's assume we lose every time we're called. Let's also neglect the case in which we get multiple callers.

(Some people have called, increasing the chance that someone has KK+, but no one raised, reducing the chance someone has KK+. I'm choosing to call this a wash.)

We have 21% equity when called by KK+ so our EV when called is
21% * $360 - 79% * $320 = -$177.

We win $40 94% and lose $177 6%. Total EV is about $27.

If they'll call QQ+, AK then each person is about 2.2% likely to call and we have 25% equity when called.

We're about 84% to pick up $40 and about 16% to have -$150 in EV. That's around $10.

I'm neglecting the effects of multiple callers. My guess is that doesn't change things much, but that's just a guess 'cause I don't know.

I think these quick looks suggest that open jamming has EV greater than 0.

That doesn't mean open jamming is the right play, but it does strongly suggest that folding can't be right.

I think getting called by a shorter stack makes this better, as you lose less when you're (presumably) called by a better hand but still win the same when everyone folds.


Edit: Looks like this was ninja'd above.

Think of it this way, GG; you getting it in with AJ has to do wonders for your image!

Also, I believe you're giving too much weight to SPR. You're always talking about SPR, but no one else is really. SPR can't be the be-all and end-all of poker, can it?

There are plenty of people in this thread who are folding JJ to your play preflop and QQ to your jam after the flop who will then chime in to criticize.

I'm sorry your bluff didn't get through just make sure you have a big enough bankroll for the higher variance plays; though you may want to size down to whatever you would have made it if you had AA or KK in this spot (unless you're going to $100 as well). If you're going for a squeeze play in this spot then you've got a great flop for your range heads up so I think the jam is fine (the guy is calling with KK and AK and folding everything else to your Ace-high - surprised he didn't 4-bet KK pre).

If you do decide to go for a squeeze and it ends up going 4 or 5 way just give up...it happens. I think a $75 bet would do the same job against the description allowing you to abort mission for less of a loss when everyone piles on.

-Calling pre is also fine (assuming you don't insta-stack off when you make 1 pair)
-folding pre I think is too nitty against a blind open and a bunch of people calling a blind open.

I think the squeeze is the best play. I think your post-flop after was fine. I hope you're not under-rolled.

If we call, the most likely result (if no one 3bets) is a huge $80 pot 8ways (EIGHTways) with just $320 left with one person having position on us and at least 3 action players in the hand.

Let's say A75ss flop. There's a bet of $55, and a call, so pot is now $190, action is on us with one behind and a few early position people who checked. This is a great spot? Aren't we facing our commitment decision on our very first action postflop?

Seems to me I'm really flying blind with these TP type hands in these spots, and yet most others who aren't playing TP type hands will know exactly where they stand. Yeah, we got 7:1 preflop, but big deal, that was for lol 3% of our stack. Now we're playing for 97% of our stack postflop, and it could literally easily go in on the first street, so not exactly a lot of room to "play poker", no?

GI'mnotsurethisisagreatspoteitherG

To be fair calling pre depends a whole lot on your postflop skill. A lot of hands that dominate you should be 3 betting against a dark open and flat calls. How you proceed post flop is going to depend on who is creating the action and how they play. A lot of people will check most of their hands with this many players.

Let's assume a flop of A75ss and it checks to you in the HJ. With a pot of $80 you don't have to (or want to) make a large bet on a connected board with a flush draw given this preflop action. This is where i would prefer to bet a small size that can reasonably be called by weaker Aces, straight draws and flush draws (mostly AQ and AK should be 3 betting preflop so you should be more worried about sets and two pair type of hands beating you). In this specific instance I would be looking to bet about 1/3rd pot or $30. This is a value bet looking to get called by worse pairs/drawing hands. It will also get plenty of folds from pocket pairs that didn't flop a set which denies equity to hands that will only put more money in if they improve to beat you. Given how many players in the pot this is most likely a bet/fold line but is situation dependent.

On the turn I'm looking mainly to check all cards that don't improve my hand with the idea of bluff catching on favorable rivers (ideally 3 handed or less). Exactly how I play the turn and river depends on how many callers I get on the flop, whether I have position against the remaining players on the turn and the runout of cards as well as the bet sizes they use.

Yes calling pre creates a more difficult spot for you post flop but the pot odds you are getting also allow you to lose this hand often and still be +EV in the long run. Not every hand has to be played for stacks.

This is just one example of how to play this hand in a very specific set of circumstances. I think 3 bet is the best option (dark opens are rare and people will flat behind with a wide range of mediocre hands looking to flop sets or big draws but won't have implied odds given a proper 3-bet squeeze size). Sometimes in this spot you will be 3 betting and then giving up so I like a bit of a smaller size but I don't have experience in your poker room so I can't say how the player pool is going to play (to me raising $50 and getting 6 way action seems ludicrous but you would know better than I how those players are likely to react).

Folding would be fine if the initial raiser looked at his cards first but with a pfr of 100% of hands UTG I just wouldn't be able to do it. Most people with hands that dominate you should be 3 betting this spot themselves. I think you played it fine it was just a higher variance play.

At the end of the day if you want to avoid variance and just fold pre it can't be much of a mistake. Dark opens aren't common so this exact spot isn't going to come up often.

Just one guy's opinion.

I'd insta fold this to a bet and a call into 8 players. Where it would be tricky was a J75ss flop.


If I am going to squeeze I am going to do it specifically when there is a lot of dead money in the pot, the initial raiser is likely to be scared to get more money in due to stack size depth and players behind.

I rarely squeeze into this many players to try to ISO a bad villain with nothing behind and at best a 60/40 type edge. I just don't get that.

Here's the thing about limping into an 8 way pot (which I would do here BTW). Yes you are going to have to get away from a lot more medium strength hands (like the A75ss); but the pot is much bigger. You will win less often but when you do you will win much more assuming you can get away from marginal hands.

If I feel I have a post flop edge in a limpy table I don't mind going 8 ways to a flop because I can get away from AQ on this board 8 handed. But many villains when you have 75 or A7 can't get away from AQ or A10 or whatever. There is profit to be made there, but you have to realize that it will happen less often b/c 8 handed.

Super table nits don't raise aj in this spot

I think with 4 players yet to act hero can just fold and not worry too much about it

Coming from someone who is probably too aggressive in a lot of spots, I would opt for a clearly +ev flat, rather than a raise where we are half bluffing, half value betting, which may be profitable, or may not be. I'm generally not a fan of shoving a flop with A high when A high is likely to be good. Are we bluffing? We don't know. That's usually bad

anything but a raise pre to 100 to get h/u with the whale is lighting money on fire. we can get better to fold, worse to call. we are crushing the callers' ranges, have a super nit image, and guys who like to gambol.

our absolute and relative position is dogshyte, flatting is way worse with a hand that creates all sorts of RIO scenarios in a bloated pot and doesn't have suiteness so very few ways to a nutted hand.

AP shove. GnhwpG (for real).

FWIW, this has always been my standard play in this particular spot.

I'm just not as convinced as I once was that this is the best option.

GquestioningeverythingIthinkIknowG

But aren't we simply "getting away" from the best hand far too often? Folding the best hand in a big pot is a big mistake.

GtryingtoavoidbigmistakesG

i wouldn't look too much into it, we can get folds from weak hands with a spade in them + a lot of pairs who put you on AK (clean up our equity), we can get called by weak flush draws that we're ahead of. you happened to run into the tippy top of someone's range. it happens.

i just hope you showed the mighty AJo to give you a more gambly image

This has turned out to be a surprisingly interesting thread...

I really think we are discounting the other non-whale players intelligence and ability to read our move. I say that because I have been in that spot a bunch.

If hero has AA/KK type hands is he really blowing up the pot to try to win 100 from the whale and get everybody else to fold. I wouldn't think so.

If I was one of the limpers with say 99 or left of hero with 99 and had any table awareness I would think this is EXACTLY what it is... a pretty strong Ace but far from nutted hand trying to ISO the whale.

If I have AQ, or 88-1010 or somethign like that it is a SWEET spot to shove for Hero's 320. Now there is tons of money in the pot pre-flop; we are ahead of whale's range and we know Hero has to decide if they want to at best flip for his whole stack.

I get that pumping to 100 with our image is going to work a lot, but I think we are underestimating the rest of the tables ability to see through it and counter play

Thing is, when you say it's lighting money on fire, you have to ask yourself, "ok of this play is bad for me, then who is it good for?". If you can't answer that, then it's probly not a bad play

if players want to close their eyes and jam with 99 and me getting an overlay, i'm down with that all day errr day.

if they think i'm folding to a jam getting better than 2-1 on a call, i'm printing money.

if i get the table to fold, woo free $$$

if i get dealt AA/KK i'm pumping it up to 100 at this table a lot. maybe a tad less but not by much.

in this spot, i think flatting AJo is horrific for any player.

Agreed; any hand I'm raising here (including the very top of my range) I'm making it $100 (maniac's stack).

GI'llletthefieldfigureoutifitisAAvsAKG

For real? At a big action table you are going to put in 33bb preflop with AA/KK to ISO a whale who has no money behind? Feel like I am missing something. That makes perfect sense to me if whale has $500.

I'm raising an amount that I think a couple of players will call. If it's 100, make it 100. If it's more, raise more. Game flow has a lot to do with the right raise amount.