Wanted to check how some others would play this here....

Effective stacks are $650

MP($300) Raises to $15.
CO ($650) Calls $15. (player is extremely loose; Built his stack by calling a preflop All in bet holding AQ vs KK and AA; He lost a good portion of his stack since)

Hero ($1100) makes it $50 to go otb holding AK

Flop comes 357

MP checks.
CO grabs $100 stack (He had done this multiple times, always leading to a check) but then grabs another and bets $200 into the $150 pot. He has about $450 left and I have him covered.

Push, call, fold? (Im never just calling here).

shove and make him fold the lower flush draw

My typical 3bet size is 3x + dead money, so I'd go a little bigger preflop, especially against looser players. We don't mind picking up the dead money here and moving on.

Any reads on how villain plays postflop? Obviously preflop he's loose, but does he bluff / semi-bluff off large BBs? Or does he play a little more standard postflop, just betting his hands?

With the huge bet for half his stack, plus the fact he went all-in preflop before with a very mediocre hand, I'm guessing our FE is 0 here. Against a single diamond draw, we're a huge favourite. Against non-reverse dominated pairs with no diamond, we've got 15 outs (55%ish?, damn my PokerStove has expired, I should get the new one). Against pair without a diamond, we've got 14 outs (still ahead but not by much). Against a straight, we've got 8 or 9 outs (big dog), against a flush we've got 7 outs (huge dog), and against a set or two pair we're also a huge dog. Seems to me we're probably at best a smallish favourite some of the time to a huge dog others; I pass, especially since methinks we'll have our chance against this guy (plus in position) later.

ETA: So basically it's $650 to win $800 (assuming no FE and other guy doesn't come along), so we need 45%. I doubt we're close to that?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Why would you want him to fold if he has a lower flush draw?

Im folding here.he drilled his set

This is a pretty easy fold.. You aren't against 1 pair or a draw most of the time here, and I doubt like 95% of 1/3 players would fold a set or lower flush here.

I'm folding in this spot, mainly because history of player. I feel like we can find a much better spot to stack this guy. No need to get involved in a big pot here without anything.

I hadnt seen a big bet like that from him...so I thought that with our fold equity being 0, Im basically giving this guy the chance to flip with me for stacks.....and I felt I had a big edge on him skill wise....

He actually had another $400 behind him as he started with about $650....so I would have to shove $600 on him with my draw.....

I ended up folding because I did feel with position I would get a better spot.

SOB shows QT

classic weak means strong and strong means weak bet sizing tell. I think you have to ship it in here.

Also, I'd raise more preflop, at least 60

That deep I think it's a fold. Most of his range here includes pairs and straights. Let him scoop the pot and think he made an awesome play. You'll pick up a better spot later on.

You are getting 1:1.5 odds with little to no FE. I see no real edge here with another person left to act behind me so I just fold.

I fold. I never have seen a player do this with the 2nd nut draw... the overbet smells of a small flush, and, as many have said, if it is a good game, there will be much, much better spots.

why is everyone saying fold. villain will have a PSB left on the turn and be OOP. We have almost (36 percent equity needed; to our 35 percent equity) enough expressed odds to call and surely we will be able to win some more of that back in implied odds as villain will be forced to react to the turn first

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 357

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AdKh	34.89%	207,916	2,853
33,55,77,64,75,8d6d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,QdTd,QdJd,JdTd,9d8d,Td9d	65.11%	389,231	2,853

We do not enough express odds to call. We are getting 2:3.5 which means we need 36% equity for ONE street, but your ranges are giving you equity for TWO streets. Dividing the 34.89% by two means we have 17.445% equity to see the turn which means calling is -EV. Furthermore when you hit you will likely not get paid off.

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