Villain 1: Mid-30s white guy, looks like a live grinder. Headphones, tablet, knows a dealer or two, etc. Plays TAG imo and doesn't really limp in (if at all). No history with this villain. He's in the 1 seat.

Villain 2: Older white guy, is probably retired and not very good. Already got stacked off once with pair + SD vs another villain who already flopped the nuts. No history. He's in the 3 seat.

Hero: Moved from a different table, sat down with $300. Went to showdown once in a 3bet pot mw, got it in with a short stack on the turn and Hero ended up rivering a set of 10s vs villain's QQ. 6 seat.

1/3 NL 9-handed
MP V1 ($440)
MP+1 V2 ($200ish)
SB Hero ($560)

Hero is dealt AKo (don't remember the suits)

Folds to V1 who raises to $10, V2 calls $10, folds to Hero who raises to $40, V1 calls, V2 folds

I think flatting here would be bad only because I don't want to play MW OOP. What about my raise size?

Flop ($90) K93
Hero bets $50, villain calls

Pretty standard for me to lead here as I've been cbetting a ton of flops. Villain's call doesn't really tell me anything. I could've bet bigger here but I think betting a bit more than half pot was OK in a 3bet pot.

Turn ($190) 2
Hero bets $100, villain raises AI to $350, Hero?

Now that villain shipped do I have to make a crying call here? Is my bet sizing optimal? By this street I've already put in $90 to this pot with more behind. My bet here commits me I think ($190 total bets of V1's $440 starting stack or 40%.)

I like 50 pre
As played you now have to call 250 to win 900.
Not loving it but I still think you can be good >25% time.
Your bet sizing can seem kinda "weak" to live grinders also which definitely makes me think he could be spazzing

Thanks. Isn't it call 250 to win 640 though (190+100+350?)

he already saw you flip over qq and im assuming you played that hand same way? does he have any info that would make him think youd fold ak or aces in a spot like that?

If you get it in the pot will be 890

I don't think there was that much of a leveling war going on but I've been betting it like I had it at this table and haven't had anyone play back at me at all. I've been pretty tight too so he either has me crushed or has complete air.

Yeah but the immediate odds are 640 to 250. Win 640, fold for 0, lose 250.

I think preflop I make it $50 to account for the fact that I'll be playing the hand out of position. $40 isn't bad. Either is better than flatting imo.

I think I would c/c the turn. Villain 1 isn't going to have many draws, so there's not much reason to bet to protect. You're probably folding out QQ-TT. I guess you'd miss value from KQ, but he might not call the 3bet preflop with that.

OK. So what are our plans for the river? If it's A, K, or blank?

Also are we ever folding to a river bet?

I think just c/c if it's an A. I don't think it's really going to change our relative hand strength. It's doubtful he has 2 pair on the flop and QQ-TT likely folds to a turn bet.

I think I'd bet a river K. You now pull ahead of AA that might have been played tricky preflop and QQ-TT might have a tougher time folding due to you being less likely to have a K.

I doubt it. With the preflop pot our SPR is between 4-5. My plan would have been to be fine with stacking off if I flopped top pair unless the board got ugly, and I don't think it will here.

NH, now fold.

I don't think so Tim

Sorry I calculate my odds weird
In comparison to others

Pokerstove his range and see what you get.

I personally don't like to make a habit of putting my stack at risk with only top pair against competent villains. Not much he could be chasing, either.

The only hand he could have that realistically beats us is 99 and possibly AA, and I dislike soul reading in this situation.

If you haven't been 3-bet happy then I just can't find a fold here since I don't see how 99 calls the 3-bet pf if he is a "good player". I expect to chop here a lot, see KQs sometimes, and stack off to 99 but the vast majority of his combos are K(Broadway). He also shows up with AA some % of the time.

And the only hand we realistcally beat is KQ or KJ that spazz spewed all over the table. There's nothing "logical" that we beat unless we have a villain hsitory that includes bluffing.

I'll pokerstove it when I get home in an hour if you guys are too lazy to find the answer =P

Haha, I am at work and can't stove it.

We have no history with villain so I don't think we can give him ultra-credit without having a solid read.

In a box you have to allow for some level of "spew" here at 1/2 and yes a lot of the time he is going to flip over AA/99 but without a "this guy is a rock" type of read who knows. Getting 1:2.56 we need 28% equity for it to be EV neutral and he shows up here with AK, KQ enough to justify calling.

Moral the story: check/call turn and river to under rep your hand.

It's funny that you say "don't give him credit for a good hand without a solid read" and I'm saying "don't give him credit for a bluff without a solid read."

I'm saying don't give him credit for having the 2 hands you are worried about (99/AA) without having a read that he is a rock. All things being equal he has 3 combos of 99, 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of AK, 4 combos of KQ, and lets add in 1 combo for "wtf he had xxcc floated the flop and turned a straight/FD and shoved". I mean I know plenty of players I would fold here against, but against those players I am check/calling the turn/river and if you are betting you should be bet/folding but in a box I just can't find a fold here given the reads OP gave.

I mean we don't know if he is fit/fold or how he views us so tbh I don't know how great 3-betting PF OOP is.

This is my donkey "we have tptk hurr durr I'm not folding" post

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

660 games 0.001 secs 660,000 games/sec

Board: Kc 9h 3d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.909% 00.91% 20.00% 6 132.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 79.091% 59.09% 20.00% 390 132.00 { AA, 99, 33, AKs, KcQc, KcJc, AKo }

28% equity needs to call. 21% if you assume he isn't really bluffing. When you add in a few KQo and KJs "bluffs" this is pretty close.

He can't have the Kc because the Kc is on the board

What is the point of 3b pre when we're just going to dump TPTK on such a dry board? Are we hoping they just call/call/call with KQ or what?
At least at my casino guys that look like that are complete ******s. That are definitely capable of spazzing. We are afraid of AA and 99, which 99 probably doesn't call the 3b pre and AA is probably going to 4b with V2 in there so it won't be a MW pot. If he has 99 is he going to be raising the turn just because a club came in?

My bad but stove doesn't include it anyway.

I guess it all depends on if you think villain is capable of spazzing. Your description made it seem like he wouldn't be ******ed like that but everyone is capable of spazzy moves sometimes. Call?

Yeah I guess versus a reg I am willing to look it up here one time for information and I hate folding after showing all this strength. Makes people think you are weak, and just shows we misplayed the hand.

I mean, if the guy is really this tight and all he is calling with here is AA/99/AK then I don't mind calling pf to underrep our hand since we are OOP or bet the flop then check/call the turn/river. If you are planning on bet/folding the turn then you are making a mistake and should just check/call and once you bet I think you are priced in.

Also it is good to know if he is making (what I think) is a mistake to set mine PF, or flat calling a 3-bet with AA IP. Without more information though I can't fold the turn here.

it's not a mistake to call with 99 pre ... it's less than 10 percent of effective stacks. not saying it is ideal, but people will call that.

no one has mentioned KK either. i know there is only 1 combo, but a lot of people play KK scared, making sure there is no A on the flop before going broke.

i think you are way behind here.

Hi (first post in ages/newbie). Appreciate reading these forums, want to try to contribute. My thought/question: Does anyone see Ac9c in V1's range? I see the OP's read of his as TAG, but someone who doesn't limp might be raising A9 suited when he decides to play it. Granted, hard to see that calling the pf 3b, but -- how many hands has he played lately? Is V1 bored? He's got position on hero and might be happy to see the pot go multi-way with his medium suited ace.

Anyhow, he makes middle pair on the flop, decides to peel/not fold to the c-bet. Picks up the nut FD on the turn and decides to shove. He wants to pick up a big pot, and if he's behind, now he has lots of outs.

Now, if all of that is vaguely plausible, I realize it still only adds 1 combo to the all stoves. But imagination might be the best way I can add something new to the convo.

Thx.