Quote:
Originally Posted by 23LBJ23
First off, what in sam hill is a "good shortstacker" at a 1/3 NL game? IMO, 95%+ of shortstackers at 1/3 play horribly -EV poker..
I was thinking about shortstackers online when I wrote that. Guys who play tight preflop, but raise/jam flops/turns and are not easy to play against. Agreed though, no one live plays like that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 23LBJ23
Anyways. We are certainly not scared of older guy here. He's wide. To the younger guy. You made a standard raise preflop and standard looking c-bet. It is a 4-way flop, but a rainbow so could we could be somewhat wide here. A10+, 1010+. You obviously block 1010, and QQ and given no 3bet pre, these hands are very unlikely. So it really comes down to only 33 beating you. He could be an aggro, with hands like KJ and J9 and such. Probably doesn't pop with one pair hands here often, so I see that as unlikely. So if we put him on either 33 or KJ ONLY (no J9, AJ additions), and assume old guy has a variety of Qx hands and 33, your equity is 50%. HU on side pot vs. young guy is 60%. So we are clearly going no where.
So considering we are either coolered or he has decent equity against us, I think we need to charge a price. Given young guy only has $135 left and pot is now $172, we gotta shove here.
Nice analysis. Similar to the things I was thinking at the table. If the older guy has a Q or possibly a good draw he's probably just going with it and I'm not really scared of his hand tbh.
Here's where the hand gets tricky, though. What range do we put the younger guy on? His line looks really strong given he cold raised the preflop raiser with 2 other opponents still in the hand on the flop. And, he did this on a QT board that hits a raisers range pretty well, as well as a rainbow board so less draws. Since I have no reads on him, do we assume he's an average live low stakes player? If so, does that mean we assume he's going to flat our flop bet with KJ and J9 since the average live player is passive? Especially considering he'd probably want a multiway pot with those hands so he'd be more likely to flat to keep BTN/BB in the hand? If he flats those hands then can he ever have a draw here?
What does his value range look like? Certainly all sets although like you said we block QQ and TT so only 1 combo of both (meaning they're incredibly unlikely). 3 combos of 33. He could also have QT but only 4 combos of that. Would he raise with a good Q? Maybe but probably not if we assume he's passive.