1/3 Tuesday night

Hero: 30's white male. Been running good and playing TAG. Villain only recently sat down so shouldn't have much of of a read on me except maybe my lack of limping along with the table. Stack $1500

Villain: 20's/30's asian female. Sat down in the last thirty min or so and hasn't really played a hand. I believe I saw her call a standard raise preflop with others and fold on the flop but thats it. By her composure and lack of joining the limpfest i get the impression she's a decent player. Stack $300

On to the hand!

Folds to UTG+1 who limps, folds to Hero in MP who raises to 13 with KQ, folds to Villain in SB who calls, BB folds, limper calls.

Flop: QT5 (Pot~37)

Villain donks 20, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: QT55 (Pot~75)

Villain bets 30, Hero calls.

River: QT55K (Pot~135)

Villain bets 45, Hero..?

Call

I'm assuming you meant to type Q on turn and river. It looks like an AQ, QT type hand trying to get to showdown cheap. Could have K9 through KA but still hard to call a raise on river with those hands. A better two pair is not really possible so we are only worried about a straight at this point.

I kind of like a clickback or similar to make V squirm and induce a crying call with a weaker 2 pair. Then buy her a drink a few hands later if she's steaming and cute

I make it about 135-145. Puts her in a tough spot. Looks valuish, but she's also getting a decent price.

As played, really easy river call. I might be able to get behind a raise but it's feeling a bit thin at this point after villain bets 3 streets. Only real value hands we would be targeting would be QT and maybe AQ.

Though you don't have much of a read on villain, I generally like to raise flop here for thin value (with plan to fold to a flop 3!).

Just call and expect to see AQ, though a min-raise on river is okay too. Her bet sizing seems like she's not sure how good her hand is but didn't want to check.

Don't raise. Just call. I think she has a lot of 5x in her range too given the 5was not on the flop. Raise only gets called by better IMO.

Call. I don't see enough hands she would call with that we beat.

I like the whole hand and call the river.

Against good players, I just don't think a raise gets looked up by worse enough to risk it. Against poor players / calling stations, much more argument for a river raise.

Having said that, there are two benefits of a river raise. One, if she folds we don't have to show our hand (and start planting lingering mind ****ing seeds of whether we do or do not have it). Two, if we do have to table our hand (or fold to a reraise) it shows we don't need the stone cold nuts to raise the river. Overall, I think a raise on the river is more for metagame value than for much actual EV.

GcluelessNLnoobG

+1. Great thoughts here GG.

Allin. It’s hard to imagine many hands that beat us take this line.

Good players would never take this line with this sizing.

You all are worried she wouldn’t call with worse, but I bet you’re not bluff jamming here.

In game I probably call but in theory I assume raise is smarter. Call is really safe but unexciting.

But dude she only calls our bluff with a better hand

TAGs dont flat an EP pfr with hands with a 5 in them in this spot unless it is 55. We raised in EP, all folded to her in SB, who tf calls with A5s, 56s, or something in this case oop?

IMO villain never has a five and we are only afraid of J9s (probably not even calling this pf) or AJs. Not raising the river is ludicrous just wondering the size. I think vs a shove you're only being called with TT, 55, AJs. The blocking bet makes me weight her range away from these straight+ hands. A smaller raise will at least have a prayer of being crying called with something worse.

I would raise here.

What hand that contain a 5 can she have to donk bet into you on the flop?

She she's not calling in the SB with Q5 or T5. I don't think donking with 55 is likely even with the flush and straight draw possibilities. And 55 would be value betting bigger on the turn / river. A5, 56 and 45 of clubs are likely the only hands she can have that contain a 5 (maybe 35 and 57 of clubs too?), but why lead out on the flop with any of those when she has a draw with a few extra outs to 2 pair? Her more appropriate flop action would be to attempt to get a free card or check-raise as a semi-bluff. And like with 55, all these hands would be value betting bigger OTT/R.

I think her donk bet means she most likely paired the Q on the flop, and the small-ish turn and river bets mean she still likes her hand but wants a cheap showdown. She's likely not putting you on a 5 as the PFR.

Let's put in a small raise and see if she's able to bet/fold the river. I wouldn't expect her to call with a hand that beats yours, and despite her blocking bet, she still might call a small raise with a Q in hand.

Now in the unlikely event you face a re-raise on the river, I think you should fold. Then that means she probably had suited clubs with a 5, donk bet for whatever reason, then value bet tiny to keep you in (both these plays suggestive of not a decent player), but then finally felt comfortable that you would call a large river bet when you raised her on the river.

I like making it like 120. There're a few worse K's that will call.

Thanks for the responses all.

Results:

I still think it's a little thin, especially since QT (likely her most strongest weaker hand) is only a bluff catcher on this board (AA/AK/KJ not to mention monsters as well as obvious KQ are all better than it thanks to the 55 on board). On top of that one of our only draws got there, otherwise we likely backed into a hand that has showdown value and no reason to bluff. I'm actually trying to think of a worse hand we can have that gets to the river and has reason to bluff and can't think of a single one (HH is a little weird in that it's unclear whether there is a flopped flush draw or not).

Her call is pretty bad, imo, so it's possible our read is off a little.

GcluelessNLnoobG

HH was correct in the first post with the flush draw on the flop but I messed it up on turn and river.

I agree that her call is bad because I’m only ever raising with 5x, straights, boats, or better two pair but as I said she had only been there 30 min so I didn’t have a real read on what kinda player she is.

I’m actually surprised so many people advocated just a call. My thoughts mirrored GuitarDean’s post that this is a good raise/fold spot. I’m obviously value owning myself against the 5x she may snap call but whenever I get jammed on after making it 120 I can be confident it’s a boat or straight or basically anything that beats me and can safely fold. I even considered draw hands that made top pair like KJ making a crying call.

Yeah I wouldn't label her decent if she snap called a ~3X river raise. She's already dead to AA/KK on the turn if she has QT. Also under bet all 3 streets. More of a non-hand reading weak call station it looks like.

Ha! If she snapped, then 120 WASN'T the magic number. Maybe 140-150. But I'm glad you got paid off.

Shoulda grunched it but man this is an easy raise facing that weak river size, that size in my experience indicates that it isn't a very strong hand. Given spr of roughly 1 I think that just shoving all in is a good play.