1/3, 9-handed

Stacks, positions:

V1: $200, UTG (mubsy recreg)
V2: $300, UTG1 (tightish passive old guy)
Hero: $450, UTG2 (TAG reg)
V3: $220, MP1 (loose old guy taking stabs with any pair when checked to)
V4: $250, SB (loose fish)

V1 raises to $10, V2 calls, Hero 3bets to $40 with AJo, V3 calls, V4 calls, V1 calls, V2 folds

4-way to the flop:

FLOP ($170): KT2r
V4 checks, V1 checks, Hero checks, V3 bets $40, V4 calls, V1 folds, Hero ??

Firstly, I know that flop is an obv fold rather than a 3b/call but tables had just merged and I felt like setting the pace of the game/build an aggressive image so I decided to 3b planning to take the pot down right there.

Once coldcalled in 2 spots and then by the OR, I was pretty much done with the hand unless I flopped gin because hands like AK/JJ could easily be out there.

OTF, I was hoping it just checks through, but V3 decided to bet $40. Since the flop was so dry and he was so short, I felt like he flopped a set/AK or something and I only had 4 clean outs.

I am not really a pot-odds guy so I stuck to my plan and just mucked for $40 into $250 because I didn't think it was worth chasing just 4 outs.

Thoughts?

The f you mean not a pot odds guy?

Obvious fold is obvious.

As in, I can't quickly calculate pot odds to decide if I should call or fold here. It's close I know but it's mostly just intuitive for me.

So you're folding for $40 into $250 closing the flop action?

Actually against AxKy you are getting the right odds plus 3% profit in the long run. A set of Tens, you are getting the right odds plus 1% profit. The real question you need to ask yourself in this spot is are you going to get paid off or not if you do make the nuts. If the answer is yes then you should call. Implied odds make it a profitable call

Pretty clear call, IMO. You are getting 6:1 direct odds with 4 outs to the nuts. You only need to make $160 when you bink on average, which you ought to be able to do. You also may get to see a free river sometimes and occasionally your A is an out.

3bet pre is too small, it only bloats the pot.

Don't like pre, flop is a fold.

Flop is a thin call, their stacks are a bit small for you to be sure you'll get value if you bink, but an ace might be good as well and you may also get a free river card.

Can someone give me a QUICK way at the table of calculating whether to call $40 into $250 to chase 4 outs?

I know 4 outs = 16% (4x4) to hit, and $40/250 = ~1/6th = ~16%, is that approximation good? I know it's not completely right.

Youre only chasing one street so its 8%. At the table I'd work out how big the final pot I take down will have to be to justify the call. 40 is 10% of 400 so I figure I need to win like 450, which seems slightly ambitious but then the ace might be good and I might get a street free, so I can handwave my way to a call.

Ah, now this 1/3 NL table looks like the 1/3 NL table I play at! A raise, a call, a 3bet, and 3 calls. Standard!

I fold preflop. Yeah, it's a small raise and there's a little bit of dead money in the pot. But it's still a raise from UTG from a MUBSy player, and AJo plays *horrible* against a typical raise from that position from that type of player. We also still have most of the table left to react behind us; there's still a good chance a lotta decent hands are still in the mix.

Lol @ preflop results, I'm assuming we didn't expect this. But at loose tables, honestly, this has to be half expected, so simply make sure you have the goods when you do this and you'll print money. AJo is not the goods.

On the flop, we're getting about 6:1 closing the action, which means we need to make up about 5 bets to break even chasing our gutshot (noting I'm not counting pairs as outs as they likely simply bring a lot of RIO). Pot will be $290 and we need to make up about $200. Our gutshot is clean. The two guys are fish. The problem is, the remaining stacks are just $170 and $140, so in order to breakeven+ we'd have to get in money from both these players, which is typically very difficult to do. So trivial fold due to remaining stack depths.

I come from a Limit background, which means I've memorized the odds table for all the typical outs you'll encounter (from like 2 thru 10). You really should do the same (it's not hard). If you don't know that chasing a 4 outer is a 10.5:1 shot, then you're simply going to be making too many mistakes in spots like this.

ETA: This is how I woulda done the math at the table, and it isn't hard. The bet is $40, and there's a call. The pot before the bet was $170. So first figure out how many bets the pot had in it before the bet. If you don't like division, and I don't, just start with a number and see what you get. Let's try 3. 3 * $40 = $120. That's not $170. So let's try 4. 4 * $40 = $160. That's about $170 (in fact, after rake / BBJ / tip, it's about exact). So there's about 4 bets in the pot before the bet. Now add the bet, and the call. Alternatively, you could have added the pot + bet + call and figured out the number of bets it in at that point, although you start dealing with bigger numbers that might take you longer to do math on. Whatever you find comfortable. So there's 6 bets in the pot. So we're getting 6:1. We're on a 4 outer, which is a 10:5:1 shot (i.e. memorize your pot odds table beforehand) to breakeven. I like making money and not breaking even, so I'm going to round that up to 11:1 (and rounding up is fair cuz we ain't gonna get paid off 100% of the time). So I need to make up 5 bets to make money. 5 bets is 5 * $40 = $200. Making up $200 in what will be a $290 pot against one fish who has $200 is *perhaps* doable, but maybe not (again, we don't get paid off 100% of the time). It's looking a little thin. But if none of the fish have $200 (and both of these guys don't), then it's almost impossible (hoping both fish pay you off to meet your quota is far too optimistic a parlay). We're also OOP to the better and we're 3way to the turn, so it's unlikely we're going to get to the river for free (we can't be relying on the turn checking thru). So it's a *trivial* fold. This is the *exact* process I go thru at the table.

GcluelesspotoddsnoobG

The ace figures to be good quite a bit though, you need to factor that in. Both villains are unlikely to have aces. They could both have AT. Given the betting on the flop AK is unlikely. They could have QJ. They could have a set, I guess. If they don't have those specific hands then the ace will be good. If you make the ace good 100% of the time then it's a call with direct odds. Obviously that's far too optimistic, but with the implied odds as well it's going to be close. "Trivial fold" is overstating your case, it could well be a fold but it's closer than you think.

Okay, so mixed opinions I guess.

FWIW, I folded and turn was a Q, V4 led out for $100 and V3, the flop bettor folded.

Been folding all the winners recently.

For some reason I didn't realize how little stacks remained going to the turn. It may be a fold, actually. I think it's close, though, for the sizing.

Having the A as an out is *extremely* optimistic. It completes the OESD, plus is the most common card to have in someone's hand when we get called in lol 3 places to a preflop 3bet, where there is a very good chance someone has us dominated with AK or reverse dominated with AT. Start factoring in the RIO when we lose our stack on this card (and also sometimes lose our stack when hitting the gutshot due to someone redrawing out on us), and the fact the individual fish stacks aren't *remotely* close to what we need to chase our gutshot, I maintain this is a *trivial* fold.

Gnotclose,imoG

I just want to recircle to this point. Being a pot odds guy is fundamental and gives you the clear answer to this question. If you want to use your gut to determine if you're priced in you will continue to have uncertainty as to basic math situations and that's the name of the game.

Even ITT, you see misapplications of this totally fundamental concept. With 4 clean outs you are roughly11:1 to hit the next card or 6:1 to hit by the river. Here the bet is offering you slightly better than 6:1 but that's only for one card and as pointed out above the implied odds of extracting the remaining stacks are close to your 11:1 but not present.

Become a pot odds guy it's super important.

pre looks like your just pressing buttons with a mubsy UTG open (very tight range likely) followed by a tight UTG+1 call and loose players behind you. This is not the best time to 3bet with AJ.

as played, I don't like the odds to call and with roughly 60 BB stacks there's probably not much FE. Not opposed to a call though (calling the flop would be a better decision than 3betting pre imo).