Hero has been at the table for about an hour. I haven't done anything very notable. Seen as TAG by anyone paying attention as I've bet and raised a number of times while only limping and calling a handful of times combined.

Villain is an ABC reg I've played with many times before. Never really seen him get out of line. Plays good hands, folds trash. Pretty unimaginative though. He seemingly does have a fold button from what I've seen in the past.

~$325 effective. UTG raises to 10. Villain calls in BMP. HJ calls. Hero calls OTB with 10h8h. Seemed profitable OTB in what will end up being a 4-6 way pot with a hand that can make big post-flop hands. Thoughts? BB calls.

Flop ($50): Kc7s9h. Villain bets 20. HJ folds. Hero calls. I just call here as villain is offering decent odds with a $20 bet into a $50 pot and I wouldn't mind seeing a call or two from the BB or the original raiser. Thoughts? BB and UTG both fold.

Turn($90) 5h. I pick up a flush draw along with my OESD. Villain bets $50. Hero? I range him on top pair with a decent kicker and the 4 suited combos of 68. Maybe a set, but I think his bets would be a bit larger in that case, but I don't have evidence to back that up. I don't think he plays K7 or K9 in MP for a raise. 68s is a bit of a stretch, but he is showing strength here.

Definitely a common spot where I think the best choice depends on both your image and your villain. In this case, I think best option is to raise. Hard for him to call with 1pr hands and you rep 2pr+ very well here. If called you should be prepared to fire the river unless you pick up a read


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As played, call turn. Your flush draw is disguised and you could win a decent amount on the river since it came runner runner. I think we can bluff some rivers like 8's as well.

But I like raising the flop particularly in light of the small bet sizing.

Preflop call seems very reasonable.

Preflop: Call. Your hand has value, and you have both absolute and relative position calling a UTG raise multiway from the button. Often times in spots like this UTG will check after missing the flop, everyone else will check, and (as long as your image is tight) you can steal the pot with a bet.

Flop: Provided we have the same definition of "ABC," I would put villain on a very strong hand. ABC players are not calling EP raises with KJ here, but they are definitely calling with 99 and 77. The board is dry so the tiny bet looks like he's trying to sucker weak pairs into calling. Your implied odds are high here and your draw is disguised, just call.

Turn: You've picked up another disguised draw and your implied odds are still high. Just call again and make sure the dealer throws a J down on the river.

Just my opinion...

Raise turn. Either go $200 or Jam. At these stakes id prolly just overbet shove.

You need some bluffs to balance all the value you will have here when you raise turn. This hand is basically the nut hand to turn into a bluff. You have blockers to the nuts, you have a ton of equity and no showdown value, your up against an abc player who probably has a fold btn. You also credibly rep 86s


Risk $295 to win $385 if he calls or $140 when he folds

equity when called = ~32%
.32*(385) = $123
$123 - $295 = -$172ev when called
+$140 ev when he folds

-$172:$140
= need villian to fold at least 55% of his range

The worse the raiser/callers are, the more I'm cool with trying to get into a relatively cheap multiway pot for cheap in great relative/absolute position.

I also just call the flop. Great odds, in position, cool inviting anyone else along, and might have options if this ends up HU otherwise.

His weak bet on the flop could have been anything when checked to. Even though it is now only HU, the fact that he is continuing to bet (albeit not a monster bet) is a little concerning. We're easily getting the odds to continue to hit our hand, so folding is out of the question. The question is whether raising will be more profitable. If we raise we'll probably have to continue on the river when we whiff 2 outta 3 times if he gets stubborn. But he might have a fold button, and we could perhaps rep a slowplayed flop monster or 86/etc. I would typically take a lower variance route and just call here, but against the right players I think a raise / barrel is fine too.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Theres no room to continue on the river unless your thinking of making a super small raise ott

ugh. kinda tricky. you have a bad table rep, and no matter what kind of range ABC players put you on, they really don't calculate how far they could be behind before they are likely to call you down. So many hands beat him that it is a great spot to bomb away with, I just don't know if your villian is willing to lay down top pair here.

You could just call here again and then bluff the river if an 8, T, or spade hit. Or bet for value if you hit the J, 7, or heart.

But if you are going to bluff here, I think you have to make it like 185. Not a bad move, but calling and bluffing other rivers might be more profitable.

Shove or call are both good. If we are going to raise, I think Shove > any other size.

I make it $150 on the turn. With all the equity you already have, you don't need to get a fold very often for this to be +EV.

Versus ABC villain that has a fold button, you are going to fold out all but the top of his range. Raise here looks very strong.

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I think the best play is shove. A shove looks so much like a set here to a decent ABC reg that shove can't be bad. Call is good too. If I called this bet I'd probably decide to give up any river that I miss so I'd try to take the pot here.

Yeah, even a 3x raise to $150 creates a $390 pot with only $95 left... kinda pointless? If we're bluff raising the turn, then only a shove makes sense? Or does a minraise to $100 (which leaves $145 left in a $290 pot and threatens Villain's whole stack) make sense too?

GprobablyjustcallingG

If villains a thinking player, what value hand wouldnt you raise on the flop that you're now raising on the turn? 68, 99 and 77 and the ladder 2 you're sometimes raising flop with. Not super easy to put you on a strong hand. Take the clear +ev spot and call imo

His cbet is weak, I raise flop to 80, if called bet 180 on the turn. He should fold all one pair hands if he's ABC. Give up on river unimproved.

Seems like a good spot to get aggressive because villain's sizing (especially on flop) doesn't look strong

Shoving should have less fe than a big raise imo

On the surface, it looks like an awesome spot for a raise because our hand is so strong and we can credibly rep a ton of monsters. The problem is that our opponents range is super strong here. His small flop bet could mean anything after the PF raiser checked, but his turn sizing is alarming. I don't think he leads the turn for $50 without top two or better. I'd say AK is at the very bottom of his range. Because of this, he's not going to fold to your raise very often.

It wasn't a cbet. Hero forgot to mention that the original UTG raiser checked, and I think its skewing a lot of the advice in this thread. Had the Villain been the UTG raiser, we could cap his range to AA, AK, and KK here. It would still be a risky spot to try and bluff an abc player off of AA or AK, but it would probably work close to the 50% of the time we need in order for a shove to be +EV (thanks to Happy LuckBox for calculating this). I could see an abc player assuming their aces got cracked in a multiway pot, especially when a draw gets there on the turn.

But because this came from an abc after being checked to, I'm much more inclined to believe he flopped a monster. He's never stabbing here with a weak holding on the flop, and his turn size is big for him in relative amounts, but not too big for him to not want to be called.

I initially thought he was in LP after raiser and other callers checked with maybe only one behind to react (where a lot of even fairly "ABC" guys could weakly stab with any pair here), but now I've realized this guy has bet immediately after raiser with 2 still to react (as well as checking BB), so much less likely a non TP hand. And since he was first to call the preflop raiser, the weakest TP type hands he most likely has are AK/KQ.

So, realizing this, the flop bet (albeit small) is probably fairly strong, and even stronger when he continues on the turn (albeit HU). So I'm disliking a play on the turn more and more.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Quick question on the EV calculation.

Shouldn't the formula be .32*385-.68*295=-$77.4 EV when called? Thereby requiring villain to fold -$77.4:$140, or villain needs to fold just 36% of his range?

Grunch:

Pre is fine. A light 3-bet could be considered as (I'm assuming) at a $1/3 game a $10 reps a weaker hand. Since this hand plays very well MW and makes nutty hands, I'd rather take a flop IP.

Flop is fine as well. I'm ranging villain on Kx and sets a ton. He's got something in order to bet into a big field. I'm discounting sets as players love to make with teh expert slo play. His range is K9-KQ. We could consider raising flop as his flop lead is also small, possibly trying to figure out if his kicker is good.

Turn is a clear call or shove. We're not deep enough to leverage a smaller raise/ship river line. For most villains, however, the 5h is a bit of a brick so we may get hero'ed by Kx. That said, lots of players at this level see a 100bb raise/ship as a huge bet and will fold out everything but the tip top of their range. I'm curious as to how the villain sees us (not just in this session). Folding is out of the question.

OP, since you have a fair amount of history with the villain, how does he generally play his monsters and draws OTF?

He's typically rather straightforward. His strengths relative to other players are that he knows not to limp trash, he generally raises when he opens, and all that other fundamental stuff. But he's pretty much never 3-betting without QQ+ and I doubt he is trying to calculate his equity in pots. Basically, he's no crusher, but he's not some spewy fish I'm dying to sit with. Bets medium strength hands. Doesn't bluff much. Plays draws passively afaik. Will bet or c/r bigger hands like sets here depending on the situation. I felt like this situation lent itself more to the c/r side of things since the pot went 5 ways and the flop was rather dry.

Based on this, his range is KQ-K9 IMO (assuming he 3-bets AK). All depends on how sticky he's going to be with top pair. I think if we cram it, we get more hero calls because the turn adds so many additional draws while not changing the nuts other than having 68 get there.

Jamming is the sexier play but I probably flat and draw for a good price. We have a lot of implied odds that will allow us to extract fat value if we make our hand. If we make our hand, I bet $125 on the river. If we whiff and villain checks, I'm most likely jamming as he's capped his range at Kx. If we whiff and he bets, it's an easy fold.

OP, do you think the villain thinks we'll peel with stuff like 75/85?

If we make our hand, I go for the gold and shove.

If we whiff and villain checks, even though he probably has Kx at maximum, I just don't think our story makes sense. We flatted the turn bet on this drawy heavy board with a monster? Just think we get looked up too often.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Isn't this more justification for raising the turn?



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At this point we haven't seen him check the river to us (which often caps his hand at the weaker end, which we weren't sure of on the turn).

GcluelessNLnoobG