Against three opponents, I'd say someone has flopped a flush often enough that we don't want to bet and face a huge check-raise.

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That's nuts, no way it is anywhere near 50%.

The more willing our opponents are to pile money into the pot on a monotone board, the higher the likelihood someone has a flush.

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Of course, but you know that from three players checking to you?

They check in flow to the pre-flop raiser. Seems pretty standard for low stakes cash. Then hero gets check raised.

Not hard to connect those dots.

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I don't think you understand how this discussion works. Of course there is a very good chance someone has a flush after the check raise. We're talking about the decision point of the bet. If you're psychic, go ahead and check.

In that case, facing a nit is better, because he isn't raising higher sets.

I just went to flopzilla and assigned each villain a range of pocket pairs 99 and bellow, AJo and most reasonable suited cards.

Each range flops a flush 11% of the time, 12-13% if they play most suited hands. If you multiply that by 3, the collective range should flop at least one flush 33% to 39% of the time.

This goes down to 8-9%, if villains play utter trash like offsuit connectors and trash like 42o or 53o like some bad players do.

All in all, playing with ranges on flopzilla, I am thinking that if you go 4 way, you should be facing a flush around a third of the time, maybe a bit less, maybe a bit more depending on each villain's composition.

OTOH, whether you are in danger of being outdrawn depends on how wide villains are. If they are snug, they should have a small smattering of draws, mainly offsuit broadways along with a couple of nut flush draws. But that's a far smaller part of their range, around 5-6%, collectively around 15-18%.

i bet its even more than this because many players play any two suited.

If they play most suited hands, it gets to 13%. But if someone is playing J4s, then chances are he plays 76o etc which dilutes his range.

I think you have to flat call the raise and reevaluate OTT if you miss.

A set is generally a lot stronger than trips. Trips can be beaten by a higher kicker or a boat. A set is usually good or has outs.

Yeah I got it wrong because it's multiway. Let's assume 13% chance any one of them has a made flush.

P(of at least one of 3 players having a flush) i= 1- p(none of the 3 has a flush) = 1- (1-0.13)^3 = 1- 0.658 = 0.342 = 34.2%

It's not quite perfect because they're not independent, i.e if one of them has a flush, it's less likely the others do, but it's close enough. Basically about a 1/3 chance at least one of them has the made flush.

Pretty sure I know how the discussion works.

I would prefer a check on the flop, as I said in my first post of the thread.

No need to be psychic. It doesn't matter if we bet and get called or bet and get check-raised. We've got three limp-callers in the hand, and a monotone flop. If any of them are willing to put a lot of money in when the PFR c-bets for anything close to or over 1/3 pot, it's very likely they flopped a flush.

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Didn't grunch for someone reason, but...

I'd just overlimp preflop but that's me.

I'm cool with a small flop bet. TP and a lot of lol one card flush draws aren't folding to a bet this size, there is most definitely value to be gotten here.

I'm calling for this sizing. We're already getting 3.5:1 to chase our ~6:1 with still 6 bets left behind which we'll likely win in position if we bink. Unlikely up against QQ (although 88 isn't impossible). Sometimes he checks the turn.

GcluelessNLnoobG

As I mentioned in the other monotone flop thread, there's a free video series from Kanu7 which might help if you haven't seen it before:


BTN vs. BB betting on Monotone Flops
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I6AZ9oLizE

BB vs. BTN on Monotone Flops, Out of Position
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN4z6gkDGes

Four To A FLUSH On The Turn: How To Proceed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDriDqKnPQM

Not looking to drag out this debate, but...

When all our opponents limp, I'd weight their ranges away from pocket pairs, towards more suited connectors, and unsuited garbage. When they then call our raise, I'd weight their ranges away from unsuited garbage, and more towards suited connectors. Their limp-calling range is going to be very SC heavy.

So when we go to the flop four ways, with all three of our opponents limping, then calling our raise, it's more likely someone is going to have flopped a flush. When we bet, and get called or check-raised, the odds go up a lot. We have to look at the cards on board, and think about what our V's continuing ranges are.

Other than flopped flushes, their continuing ranges are going to be mostly made up of something that paired the board, with a spade kicker, like AQo/KQo/QJo with one spade, some slivers of 2P (3 combos of Q8s, or 2 combos of Q5dd and 85dd), or low-middling pocket pairs with a spade.

There just aren't that many PP's with a spade in their continue ranges though. Like, it's doubtful anyone's going to be piling the money in with 22-44, nor are they going to love drawing to a flush with 66 or 77. We should think someone would have raised pre with 99+. If someone gets here with 88, it's just a cooler, and not really worth thinking about that scenario.

Maybe they have some off-suit straight draws, but what sort of loons are going to pile the money in with just a straight draw on a monotone flop, when the PFR is c-betting 1/3 pot?

That basically leaves us trying to get value from 1P with a spade, or at most 5 combos of 2P. The rest of their continue range is going to be 88, or flopped flushes.

We should really just be checking back on the flop, or betting really small, to keep all those 1P and 2P hands in, so that they can stab on brick turns or rivers. When we c-bet 1/3 pot, a lot of those 1P hands get folded out, so we're left with flushes, and Q8 that can make better boats if the board pairs the Q or 8.