Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual
I just went to flopzilla and assigned each villain a range of pocket pairs 99 and bellow, AJo and most reasonable suited cards.
Each range flops a flush 11% of the time, 12-13% if they play most suited hands. If you multiply that by 3, the collective range should flop at least one flush 33% to 39% of the time.
This goes down to 8-9%, if villains play utter trash like offsuit connectors and trash like 42o or 53o like some bad players do.
Not looking to drag out this debate, but...
When all our opponents limp, I'd weight their ranges away from pocket pairs, towards more suited connectors, and unsuited garbage. When they then call our raise, I'd weight their ranges away from unsuited garbage, and more towards suited connectors. Their limp-calling range is going to be very SC heavy.
So when we go to the flop four ways, with all three of our opponents limping, then calling our raise, it's more likely someone is going to have flopped a flush. When we bet, and get called or check-raised, the odds go up a lot. We have to look at the cards on board, and think about what our V's continuing ranges are.
Other than flopped flushes, their continuing ranges are going to be mostly made up of something that paired the board, with a spade kicker, like AQo/KQo/QJo with one spade, some slivers of 2P (3 combos of Q8s, or 2 combos of Q5dd and 85dd), or low-middling pocket pairs with a spade.
There just aren't that many PP's with a spade in their continue ranges though. Like, it's doubtful anyone's going to be piling the money in with 22-44, nor are they going to love drawing to a flush with 66 or 77. We should think someone would have raised pre with 99+. If someone gets here with 88, it's just a cooler, and not really worth thinking about that scenario.
Maybe they have some off-suit straight draws, but what sort of loons are going to pile the money in with just a straight draw on a monotone flop, when the PFR is c-betting 1/3 pot?
That basically leaves us trying to get value from 1P with a spade, or at most 5 combos of 2P. The rest of their continue range is going to be 88, or flopped flushes.
We should really just be checking back on the flop, or betting really small, to keep all those 1P and 2P hands in, so that they can stab on brick turns or rivers. When we c-bet 1/3 pot, a lot of those 1P hands get folded out, so we're left with flushes, and Q8 that can make better boats if the board pairs the Q or 8.