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1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw 1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw

07-09-2016 , 09:36 PM
Relatively unknown 1/3 table

Exactly two hands ago, Hero squeezed a straddled pot with 2 limps to $40 and showed 42o after being relatively inactive at the table for a while.

OTTH..

4 way limped pot, Hero completes QTss in SB, BB nit bumps to $12, 3 calls, Hero calls

Flop ($60): KJ2
Hero checks, BB bets $25, V1 and V3 call, Hero ?

Stacks...
Hero ($350)
BB ($400) -- nit afraid of me
V1 (MP, $220) -- new, just sat down
V2 (CO, $150) -- random tight rec
V3 (BTN, $500) -- loose recfish

Last edited by L00t; 07-09-2016 at 09:41 PM.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 01:25 AM
Raise to $125, shove turn. Easy game.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 02:04 AM
With calls, there will be 160 in the pot. A pot sized raise would therefore be to 185 total, leaving you 153 behind. I'd just shove now.

Any king or J is getting the right price to call a shove, but at least some will fold. V's are more likely to make the correct play on the turn (folding to a flush or a straight board, continuing on a brick). You've got great equity, even against a set.

If there's a high hand jackpot that has enough money behind it, this could become a call but math and stuff (TM) would be required to figure out whether it was or not.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 02:09 AM
There was no high hand jackpot so a call was out of question. I'm basically contemplating on what raise size is best? We've basically flopped close to the nuts.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 08:40 AM
Since you are OOP I would just shove it all in right now and and be happy if they call or fold. I would also do it with 22 alot of the time.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by L00t
We've basically flopped close to the nuts.
While we're probably ahead of everyone else equity wise here, about 2/3 of the deck on the turn is going to kill our equity. It's the nuts, but very vulnerable nuts. I was on the fence between a small raise to try and build the pot or a shove, and I think I just talked myself into the shove. Being OOP the turn is going to suck. The draws here are fairly obvious and if we hit a good turn card (especially the flush) we likely just fold everyone out with a bet. If we whiff then we're behind again and more likely to get called. I think it's a shove here, and like Mike said, I'm pretty happy no matter how it plays out after that.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 09:39 AM
To be a little pedantic (because I think it's actually an important point, although subtle)...

Your hand isn't effectively the nuts, it's just that on the flop it can be played for all your chips. Because your draws are so strong, you can be happy raising (or, IMO here, shoving). But against something like K9o, you have only around 53% equity. Compare that to a set of deuces, where you'd have 95% equity against a K9o and 66% equity against AsTs.

With an actually nutted hand, you might want to raise smaller in order to encourage draws and pairs to stick around. With your actual hand, you want the folds. Big draws are often happy to get all the money in on the flop for the FE, but often run into trouble on brick turns, where their value drops hugely.

That can lead to inverted play, where most flop big raises or shoves are big draws rather than actual nutted hands. While LLSNL V's are unobservant, the idea that a big flop x/r or raise might be a draw is out there. The bad news is that sometimes reduces FE for big draws. The good news is that it increases equity for actual nutted hands, if they're played the same way.

Although I think there are relatively few spots in which balancing lines is required at LLSNL, I think sometimes overshoving with nutted hands on wet boards is actually worthwhile.

Edit: pretty much ninja'd by Koss
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 04:32 PM
Well, I ended up making $125 and everyone folded. Looking back, I would rather get a call or two with such a monster draw.

But it's 2016. Everyone's folding worse than 2p to check/raises.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by L00t
Well, I ended up making $125 and everyone folded. Looking back, I would rather get a call or two with such a monster draw.

But it's 2016. Everyone's folding worse than 2p to check/raises.
You might not have the same wish if you got 2 calls and bricked the turn.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-10-2016 , 05:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
You might not have the same wish if you got 2 calls and bricked the turn.
Agree. Nothing wrong with getting folds OOP and scooping a $135 pot (1/3 of your starting stack) here with no variance and a sexy looking hand that will rapidly lose equity on a brick turn.
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-11-2016 , 12:22 PM
I also complete preflop as we're likely to see a fairly cheap flop with a nice multiway hand (albeit OOP, but can't always have everything). I also sigh call the raise closing the action; I'm not in love with it since we could be dominated by better flush draws but we also dominate enough to probably make this worthwhile.

I would check/shove the flop. Good chance raiser bets and gets some calls (which is exactly what happened) and now we have a huge $135 pot with only $340 left. I'm a little concerned that one of the Villains might have the A high flush draw, but a shove could fold that out. The nit might have a hard time folding, but we're probably in a coin-flip situation with them with huge dead money in the pot, and adding just like 20% FE makes us a monster fave. Actually sucks a little that we showed our previous squeeze bluff (which reduces our FE here), but oh well.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3: Flopped open ended royal draw Quote
07-11-2016 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by L00t
Looking back, I would rather get a call or two with such a monster draw.
I don't think you do thanks to the huge dead money in the pot (which is absolutely worth winning now and folding out everyone elses decent equity in the pot), especially in the times you brick the turn and someone bets.

Only if the pot is very small relative to stack sizes would you welcome callers, imo (where you are then targetting the stacks behind with your implied odds and care little about the current pot at hand).

GimoG
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