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1/3 flop bottom set weird river spot 1/3 flop bottom set weird river spot

05-13-2013 , 07:39 PM
thoughts on all streets appreciated

i probably have a loose image at this table, frequently coming in for raises and not really showing much down.

main villain has been there around 45 minutes playing a lot of hands and folding, hasnt shown down once yet.

the hand:

villain limps mp, another limp behind, i limp 22 on the button, sb (very big stack) makes it 15, both limpers call i call.

flop (~60 pot) 26k

checks to me i bet 36, only main villain calls.

turn (~130 pot) 5

villain leads 50 leaves 200 behind (i cover him) and i call.

river (~230 pot) 4

he checks, i?
1/3 flop bottom set weird river spot Quote
05-13-2013 , 08:28 PM
I think it looks like a stab at reppin the flush on turn but he didnt want to risk more than 1/4 his stack because $50 was just over 1/3 pot.

However, if you bet river what will he call with that you beat? Looks like a way ahead/ way behind scenario to me. He either has a K, air, or you are crushed. I prob check this and see a showdown.
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05-13-2013 , 08:33 PM
edit:

Preflop is fine if the two limpers are like 75bb+ deep. I would probably bet a tad more on the flop since this is multi-way, like $42. Turn is fine imo - folding is bad and raising probably folds out all worse hands.

I would bet like 60 bucks on the river (for value) - I think you get called by Ks + 77-QQ (especially pocket pairs with a diamond - I think these hands might take this line). If he raises I would puke/fold without a good read.

Last edited by illini43; 05-13-2013 at 08:41 PM.
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05-13-2013 , 08:37 PM
I think you played all streets OK other than I would have made closer to a pot-sized bet after the flop ($50ish) - you're letting flush draws get in a little too cheap IMO and Kx is going to call that bet most likely. Some would say to make a small raise from the button for set-mining; I'm OK either way.

On the river, Villain's line is a little strange unless he has a 3 From what you've said about him I would think he'd bet the river w/ a flush although maybe he is just being trappy here with a straight that he just made. I just don't think there is much if anything that you are ahead of on the river that will call you so I'd just check it and showdown.
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05-13-2013 , 08:44 PM
the problem is that its hard to see him calling all 200 off with worse but i have to think i probably have the best hand right now.
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05-13-2013 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 702guy
I think you played all streets OK other than I would have made closer to a pot-sized bet after the flop ($50ish) - you're letting flush draws get in a little too cheap IMO and Kx is going to call that bet most likely. Some would say to make a small raise from the button for set-mining; I'm OK either way.

On the river, Villain's line is a little strange unless he has a 3 From what you've said about him I would think he'd bet the river w/ a flush although maybe he is just being trappy here with a straight that he just made. I just don't think there is much if anything that you are ahead of on the river that will call you so I'd just check it and showdown.

i probably could have bet a little more on the flop especially with my perceived image.

you dont think he could have kx or like 56 here though and pay me 75 or so?

it seems near impossible for him to have a straight and extremely nitty if he has the flush.
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05-13-2013 , 09:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerforjoker
i probably could have bet a little more on the flop especially with my perceived image.

you dont think he could have kx or like 56 here though and pay me 75 or so?

it seems near impossible for him to have a straight and extremely nitty if he has the flush.
Since he bet the turn, I think he would have bet the river with a slightly lesser hand or a flush. A straight is the one hand here that he may be trying to trap you with. Since you haven't seen a showdown w/ this Villain before it is hard to know what he likes to do though. But, as a poster above said, I think you are really either way ahead or way behind here. I just think betting the river here is a -EV move.
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05-13-2013 , 09:54 PM
B/f river
His line makes so much sense with a hand like KdX or a pocket pair with a diamond or a random 2pair.
B/fing small like 60 here on the river, even with how little he has left.
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05-13-2013 , 10:07 PM
grunch

stack sizes would help. pre is fine with 100bb stacks.

I like your flop bet. On the turn, I wouldn't be surprised if villain led smallish with AxAd or AxKd, maybe even QxQd. Stacks are pretty awkward for anything other than a shove or a flat.

Given your flat on the turn and his check, I bet 100 to get value from his one pair hands. A shove might fold out his Kx hands.

To me, the hardest decision is on the turn. I think that the river is a clear bet.
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05-14-2013 , 12:23 PM
thanks guys i end up thinking for a while and checking and even mumbling something about it being the worst check ever when the villain flips up 7d9d for a turned flush.

i kinda flash my hand as it folds and most seemed to think it was an easy check and wondered why i took so long, which made me think it was supposed to be a bet even more actually given how they played.
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05-14-2013 , 12:30 PM
Next time post stack sizes in the OP as it helps in planning out what bet sizing you should be doing on streets.

Preflop looks fine, imo.

Flop might be dependent on stack sizes, but I'm typically potting this. Board does have a draw, we're multiway, plus it's been checked to us on the Button (so it can look like a steal). Flop bet was far too small, imo.

I find the turn/river really tricky. So far this guy seems pretty loose preflop, just trying to get into a hand and hit, and it doesn't look like he's hit one yet as he's done nothing but fold postflop. And now he continues on the flop plus donks this scare card on the turn. The bet is on the small side and I think we can make up the bets we need on the river if we boat/quad up, so I think I also just call. If he bets large on the river (which would probably be a shove) I think we'll have to fold against this guy.

As played, with <PSB left on the river, we can only do one of two things, imo: check it back, or shove. Does he really pay off with many worse hands? Does a K pay off? Does he show up with two pair here ever? I think I check this back. This might be MUBSy, but this looks like a scared baby flush or better set, imo.

GcaptainoftheGoodShipMUBSyG
1/3 flop bottom set weird river spot Quote
05-14-2013 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerforjoker
it seems near impossible for him to have a straight and extremely nitty if he has the flush.
I like the line, I think you need to pair this board OTR in order to make more money. Agree with others who said there aren't that many hands we beat that will call a sizable river bet here. I've played against some MUBSy LLSNL players that will lead out when they turn a baby to medium flush, but all of a sudden shut down OTR because they automatically interpret your turn call as a higher flush (crazy I know). In other words, unless their flush is near the nuts they aren't always willing to play for stacks.

I think with your image as you've described it is also possible that he may be setting up a trap here thinking that there is more value in a check raise than a lead out bet since you are aggressive and will certainly try to steal if checked to (I think we all know the lead out is better, but fish are not immune to FPS).

EDIT: Just noticed results, nice check!

Last edited by ProFeSSa D; 05-14-2013 at 12:49 PM. Reason: Just noticed results
1/3 flop bottom set weird river spot Quote
05-14-2013 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProFeSSa D
I like the line, I think you need to pair this board OTR in order to make more money. Agree with others who said there aren't that many hands we beat that will call a sizable river bet here. I've played against some MUBSy LLSNL players that will lead out when they turn a baby to medium flush, but all of a sudden shut down OTR because they automatically interpret your turn call as a higher flush (crazy I know). In other words, unless their flush is near the nuts they aren't always willing to play for stacks.

I think with your image as you've described it is also possible that he may be setting up a trap here thinking that there is more value in a check raise than a lead out bet since you are aggressive and will certainly try to steal if checked to (I think we all know the lead out is better, but fish are not immune to FPS).

EDIT: Just noticed results, nice check!
funny because this is exactly what he said after the hand.

a few guys have said something about stack sizes, i guess i could have been more clear but i did say the main villain had 200 left after his turn bet and i covered him.
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05-14-2013 , 02:05 PM
Looks like he could have AK or KQ with a diamond and wasn't sure where he was on river. I'd probably check and take the pot down most of the time.. If you bet like 60-75$ for value and he jams it's a pretty gross spot.


edit: saw results, good check lol
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