I'll describe the hand first and reads after.
HERO has 850$
Vilain 1 has 550$
Hero is in MP with AJdd

1 limp, hero raise to 15, vilain 1 call, 2 other callers (the limper+1 )

Flop is JJ6r (60$)
Check, hero check, check check
Turn K (still rainbow) (60$)
Check, hero bet 45, vilain 1 call, fold fold

River 9 (whatever suit) (150$)
Hero bet 110, vilain 1 raise to 280, hero ????

Reads:

Table is classic 1/3 at casinos, standard bet is 11$, usually get 4-5 callers, people limp a lot and give up a lot on flop cbets.
Been playing for 6 hours, around 40-45 vpip, limping some raising top 15-20 and balancing a bit now and then. Hero is young 25 caucassian male, perceived as aggro preflop and postflop. Perceived really lag since he play in almost half the pots. Running a bit over the table since he's almost the only one raising pre and have been on a heater for 1-2 hours.

Vilain usually play tag style but at that table he lean toward 20-25% and limp some to adapt to the table. He's probably the best at that table. Age around 35-40 regular of the place.
I didnt see vilain raise on river in a while, never seen him do it as a bluff in 6 hours. To be clear, he's never bluffing here.

Why the play:
I check flop since I know the only hand that pay me are PP and random combo with 6 like 67 etc.. I hope for a money card. Turn: Best card in the deck, i bet bet bet for value.

River: Still betting for value, bet get raise by vilain

So what to do ?

AP, Call>Fold>Raise. No way a good player calls a river 3bet with anything less than a straight.

I'm not really a fan of the flop check either. Your reasoning makes some sense but if your image is aggro you need to capitalize by getting streets of value normal players wouldn't.

Yes I know that with my image, I can bet here and get called sometimes but I felt at that point that only the Reg could float me and the other 2 were pretty fit or fold so I went for a check.

If a raise is unlikely to narrow the field or setup an SPR where I'm cool with stacking off postflop, I'd rather just overlimp preflop. This hand plays find multiway, so we're cool with going to an eleventeen way flop with as many morons as possible. If a raise doesn't narrow the field to 3way at worst, then we can get into some gross situations postflop, especially considering we can easily run into dominating hands, plus there's a decent chance we'll be OOP. We ended up with a fairly sucky result (didn't narrow the field, OOP to two players, and a difficultish SPR of ~9 where playing TP hands can be tricky). I think more consideration has to be given to preflop other than "AJs, whoop!".

I would bet the flop. We have a nuttish hand and are probably fine playing for most stack sizes (although if someone has us covered, we might have to rethink). Let's build a pot against worse Jx hands, and also get some money in a pot vs other non-believing hands that might call a bet. Even overcard hands might call a bet, so let them (and hopefully they'll hit as well and we can get an even bigger bet from them on the turn).

I'm cool with the turn.

On the river, we know villain is probably never bluffing. So the question is he ever raising for value with a hand that is weaker than ours. Is he really raising with QJ/QT enough, even though we showed weakness on the flop? And the OESD did get there on the river (although does he even raise that on a paired board?). I probably make a hero fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I bet flop. Anybody with 77+ isn't likely to fold. Even 22-55 and 6x will continue a good percentage of the time. It's unlikely on this flop that we are going to win a huge pot unless someone out there is holding Jx.

Obv this is almost never a bluff on the river. If he is holding QJ/JT, would he really raise? He can't expect hero to call with Kx. There is some hope that he is holding AJ also. AJ seems to me to be the very bottom of his raising range. I think this is KJ/66 the vast majority of the time, sometimes being AJ and sometimes being QT.

You're getting better than 3:1, but I still think we fold our bluff-catcher as his raise is almost always a boat.

It's great that you were able to make the read that he's never bluffing here, and I agree with that.

I think a jack that you can beat (JT/JQ) raises on the turn, or don't raise at all.

What's left is KJ/J9, and QT. I'm actually pretty sure he has QT or slightly less likely, KJ there. So sigh fold.

It would be a little strange for him to call 3/4ths PSB on turn with open-ender on paired board though, no?

Ps, OP - which casino in Canada has 1/3?

Against a lag who almost never has a jack there, I would think even hitting a queen is good.

My point is that he never just has a jack there - the board's effective nuts are straight and fh, i only said kj is slightly less likely because we have the other jack.

ps: oh silly me, let's not forget 66/99s in the possible fh combos. .

I was at Playground poker club, which is not a casino but a Poker place on the indian reserve. (I think it's the biggest poker room in canada...)

So pretty much everybody agree that it's a puke fold ?
For info a Folded and showed since we were friendly, I though he would show me too.

He showed Aks.

I wasn't sure about my fold but seems that most of you agree, Thanks for all the answers, you can comment further on his line and if you agree...

Before I saw what you said he showed I thought I'd reluctantly call here. Because you didn't bet the flop he might think he's ahead on the turn with TPTK (w/ 2nd pair on the board).

It's a massive raise on the river and it could represent a chop, a jack, a boat or a king so I think a fold here isn't something you should kick yourself over.

The only q here is if the villain would just check here with the non-nut trips on the flop. If he had a boat there already he might. Just a tricky spot I guess.

This. I don't mind a check on this dry a flop though especially if yin don't think you can get three streets from non Jx hands. As played I would flat. You still have the best hand a lot even if he's not bluffing

Against QT, 66, QJ+, JTs you have 22% equity on river. Include spaz with worse hands and bluffs and river is a call. You need 22.5% to break even

You caused this situation by not betting flop. Hands like 99 and QT might call this turn but would never call flop and turn and now we have to worry about them. AP fold river. This is never a bluff and you cant count on random villains raising here for thin value.

Compare this with bet bet bet. He might call flop. Might call or raise turn. But he never raises river without straight+

Raise to $20 pre

Wow...I think you must've really gotten under his skin with your aggressiveness throughout the session and he decided to play back at you without really thinking about the board on the river and made a move out of, I almost want to say calculated frustration, not fully being rational and strategic with the decision.

It just happened this move worked out for him in this spot. I can almost guarantee he wouldn't take this line on another board of the same texture because his logic and intellect would have him either call or fold, it's just that in this case it seems his frustration got the best of him and his subsequent play led him to get lucky IMO.

I don't see the river raise as exhibiting skill at all, but if someone does see some brilliance in it where it can be +EV in the long run or explain a different rationale for executing it I would love to get their perspective.

First of all 99 call even a pot sized bet on flop... I think we can agree with that.
QT might float some since ive been really aggro but yeah I get yoir point.

As for the line vilain took, I think he never pit me on the J and was just value raising his K thinking I had one too

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Again, the villain taking that line is an example of why slowplaying makes it easier for you to make mistakes. When you check this flop after raising preflop, you have no idea how this is going to affect this villain's perception of your range, making it harder for you to properly size future bets and decide whether to call on the river.

In other words, you make money after raising preflop with a value hand like this by making bets that he will sometimes call without sufficient implied odds against your strategy. To do this profitably you want an accurate estimate of his perception of your range. Playing your hand deceptively adds noise to this and increases the chance you'll make a mistake when you misinterpret his perception of your range (like what happened here).

I'll add that if you had bet 1/2 pot on this flop instead of checking, there's still a reasonable chance he would call with AK and then you take him to value town instead of this mess (him raising the river in that scenario is much less likely).

I couldnt say better and I agree. Thx a lot

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Ah, I've only played 1/2 and 2/5 there, didn't know they have 1/3 in between.. does they also rake an amount between the two?

Yeah, people at playground does more weird/stupid/crazy things than anywhere else i've seen, so getting FPS can really backfire

I think the rake is 1/2 +1 but I could be wrong. Or the same rake as 1/2