3a.m. at action table in casino in California, couple drinkers but not V's in this hand.

1 limp to V 1 (UTG+1 450) ~50 year old white man who shuffles chips and seems capable but no amazing, only seen 2 hours of very slow play so haven't seen much from him but he hasn't messed around.. complemented me on a play earlier opens to 8 (strange weak sizing)

1 caller to Hero..

Hero AsKs (HJ 350) 27 white male leather jacket open with button up shirt short/medium length hair reraise to 35

V 2 (BTN 800) Old middle eastern man coffee calls, has built huge stack playing pretty loose pre seems splashy because hes up a ton.

folds to V 1 who calls other player folds

flop 6s-2s-Qd

V 1 Check

Hero check

V2 bets 100

V1 call

Hero thinks for 1 min and check raise all in 315 total both V cover

You’re repping pretty much QQ or bluffs imo, likely getting called here but I guess that’s fine as you have a huge amount of equity v any hand.
I’d just bet the flop though..

I would just x/c or cbet here. The x/r line is either QQ or a nut flush basically every time, and villains are going know there is way more bluffs than sets here. As far as bluffs go, you can't find one with more equity but it also means there are fewer bluffs in villain's range. He is highly weighted to Qx here, which means you're getting called a lot. Not a disaster with your holding, but awfully high variance method of playing this hand.

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What's the chances of this weak open + callers getting 3bet by one of the 4 players still to react? At action tables, I might risk a flat here anticipating that where we can then really bring down the hammer. Plus if we end up going very multiway, whatever, not the end of the world as this hand plays fine multiway in what will still likely be a manageable SPR. And even though it's a lol open size, it's still from an old guy in EP who isn't messing around at an action table; there is some chance he's sizing small to be played back at. If we're 3betting, I'd make it much larger to about $50ish to make poorer ~setmining odds.

Flop we have a lotta options with this big equity hand. SPR is a fairly small 3, so we could consider simply open shoving although that's probably too much of an overbet. Another idea is to break that shove down over 2 streets, so like a big bet on the flop to setup a turn shove. We could also just bet small and see if that takes it down, and otherwise slow down if it doesn't. Or if we think the splashy guy behind us will bet we could check/shove. Don't think there are too many bad options.

As played, I'm a little worried facing a huge PSB on this flop although maybe it is trying to buy the pot after the 2 opponents showed weakness. And I'm a little worried about the old guy still in the mix although perhaps this is just AQ. But overall we should have decent equity here and some FE, so I'm cool with the jam at this point.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Don't you think we also have KK/AA in our range? We 3 bet just large enough pre at 1/3 which almost always polarizes jj+ at this level. And just because its bad doesn't mean a lot of players don't c/r with those type of hands on flops hoping the guy will bet hehind them.

My thought process boiled down to folding to the 100$ bet because I was willing to find a better spot UNTIL the other V called.. at this point I was thinking if both V called my shove I could find myself +EV vs a lot of holdings.. there was a small about of FE and if one V called I was never drawing dead but was going to be the worst case scenario but only a set dominates us so all together things didn't seem that bad..

on this flop after bet and call V's range narrows down to Q'x, lower fd, overpair, and sets.. however overpairs we block and since there was no 4b by V's, and 2 pair is highly unlikely, so unless you're feeling mubsy there is definetly more FE than at first appears, and vs one Q'x caller were actually +EV because of dead money with 2 overs.

I didn't feel comfortable that I had the SPR to just call there and it may have been 15-20$ shorter actually which makes the math more close

No, I would discount overpairs from your range because generally villains aren't going to trap with overpairs when there are flush draws on board. Doesn't mean you can't have them, just means I don't think it is as likely if I'm the villain in the hand.

As far as fold equity goes, I think Qx is going to call often because KQ and AQ are blocking a bunch of overpairs and your line looks exactly like what it is: either QQ or a nut flush draw. If they have Qx then they have to decide if they believe you 1) trapped with an overpair that they may partially block; 2) have a strong flush/nut flush draw (which we know they don't block because we have the Ace and the King); 3) have the one combination of QQ and chose to trap (which is not uncommon but is done less than 100%)

This isn't to say it's a bad play or -EV. It is higher variance than making a cbet, though.

AA or KK can be in our range some of the time. I'd argue we have more value than nut flush draw, only "bluffs" are AsKs and AsJs. QQ, AA/KK (sometimes) and AsQs for value.

Well played, if they call it's still profitable, when they fold it's massive profit. A call is a poor play imo, fold equity is your friend here and you're gonna whiff the turn pretty often. With value & nfd you'll want to just get it in asap.

You plan was to 3b, get this flop and then check fold????
LOL