1/3. Villain is a quiet MAAG. Only a few hours @ the table together. He is playing loose/semi-passive pre. Seems to understand the game somewhat, but not tricky. Occasionally raises pre/post, but mostly limping pre & giving up early post as the defender/limper. Hero is understated MAWG, playing tight. About $475 effective, 9-handed.

What river sizing do people like here on this board/runout/SPR? Can we be greedy & shove for thin value vs Tx, or is a B/F line better given the dynamic? I'm assuming earlier streets were OK, but let me know. Thanks.

Hero (OTB): A A

2 limpers call $3, Hero raises $21, fold, Villain (BB) calls $21, limpers fold

Flop ($49): T 8 5

Villain x, Hero b $35, V c $35

Turn ($112): 4

V x, H b $75, V c $75

River ($262): 8

V x, H ???

If you size up the turn you can PSB shove the river. I like to go for max value on these run outs. If he flopped TT/55 so be it, but his lack of a turn x/r or river lead makes it much less likely.

Shoving $340 into $260 isn’t much of an overbet I’d just do that.

jam

Shove and expect to get called by some lesser hand including Tx. You probably aren't narrowing his calling range much regardless of your sizing, so go for the upside. If he called down with an 8 because he put you on AK, or had some monster all along, I can't help but think he would lead out on the river. I don't mind the turn bet sizing because it keeps him in the hand with marginal holdings.

I think a shove is a little too aggressive and scares off most guys at this level. If you had a total maniac image then it would make sense, but I think a small bet on the river (1/3 pot) has a much higher chance of getting called. OTR, its better to get 30bb of value 75% of the time then 100bb 15% of the time.

Sure, but in your hypothetical, if we get that 100BB call 23% of the time or more, obviously a bigger bet is more profitable, no?

But how often villain calls is purely hypothetical & we're mostly all guessing based on meta-game+experience here. It just doesn't have to be that often for it to be +EV when we bet big, is my point.

Overall when I give someone 22+ IO preflop with my overpair and we end up in a HU pot, I almost never want to play for stacks postflop unless I'm possibly up against someone at the absolute top of the moron chain. This guy isn't giving off that vibe, right? With an SPR of 9ish, we can play for stacks with biggish 3/4+ PSBs, so I'd rather avoid that. We can do that by either checking back a street or by betting on the small side.

So overall if I'm betting all 4 streets here, especially on this rather drawless board, I'd probably size smaller. Although our sizing did leave us with $344 in a $262 pot on the river, so still a good job of not committing ourselves and we have a manageable bet/fold on the river. But I think there is just that much more chance of 3 smaller postflop bets (after a preflop raise) to get looked up by worse (especially if we have a tight image), whereas larger bets have an ok chance of eventually losing an overpair on the last barrel against non-morons.

As played, I'd probably go like $100ish and fold to a check/raise.

ETA: Looks like I'm out of step with most, but a $344 bet in my 1/3 NL game is a *massive* bet. Against most non-morons, my guess is that JJ/Tx makes a fairly easy snap fold and QQ folds like at least half the time; if we're up against KK, yeah, we're probably getting his stack (although KK 3bets at a *much* higher rate preflop than QQ-, ime). Meanwhile a smaller bet allows us to get away for cheaper when we run into better. With a more aggro barrelly maniac image, I certainly wouldn't mind a shove nearly as much, but I'm assuming that's not the image we have.

GcluelessNLnoobG

The bolded makes a lot of sense to me as well, but just as a reality check, we would have to believe that the 1/3 pot bet gets called about 4x as much as a shove for it to be the right play. Maybe it does get called that much more than a shove. I'm not sure.

Regarding the idea of shoving being called x percent > betting smaller being called y percent:

In my experience, this idea is really linked to actual $$$, and starts breaking down a little bit as the actual $$$ gets really large. Like, if at a typical 1/3 NL game the pot was like $50 and we had $75 left, there's almost no difference whatsoever in the calling frequency between $30 and $75 in this spot, so obviously bet $75 if going for value. However, using the exact same percentages, there is a pretty massive difference if the pot is like $300 and we're debating between $180 vs $450, and then an even more massive jump if the pot is like $600 and we're debating between $360 and $900.

Gjustsometoconsider,imoG

RE: Spoiler, yes, when you really boil down the math I think bigger river value bets often make the most sense. It is just tough psychologically because you know you are going to get a lot more folds, so more of the time you are second guessing yourself but you only need the larger sizing to be called off a certain amount of time for it to be right.

Guys are flatting with premiums out of the blinds vs BTN opens? I think he had something like JTs+.

Its possible you could have sized larger (even overbet) on the turn in order to setup a <pot size river bet.

The deeper we are and the more likely the pot is going to end up HU, the more this becomes an option, imo.

GcluelessflattingnoobG

Maybe.

Whether it's strategically sound or not, I've seen JJ-QQ/AK flatted enough to know that many live-regs/recs do it compulsively, regardless of stack depth. I'll concede it is probably a decent strategy vs certain guys who barrel off 2.5-3 streets compulsively w/ TPGK or a big/busted draw -- but I think most people just aren't familiar w/ playing 3-bet pots, so they simply avoid doing it unless they get KK+. Much easier psychologically to flat pre & x/c all the way.

I don't want to derail the thread, but there are other reasons flatting a monster is fine:

- if there is a chance one of the limpers was possibly looking to limp/reraise
- if the opener will often fold to a 3bet
- the deeper we are the less benefit to getting in chips preflop with "the nuts" (especially if that may turn our hand face up, especially OOP)
- as stated above, if the opponent is barrel happy against weak looking play

But as you say, whether it's sound or not is almost irrelevant: the point is it happens and we can't rule preflop monsters out of the range just cuz there wasn't a 3bet.

G/derailG

Deeper stacks and larger pots change the bet sizing dramatically, when playing exploitively against the small stakes live player pool that the forum is specified to be regarding. GG is on point, which is almost always the case, imho.

Theoretically speaking in a vacuum against very skilled balanced high stakes opposition, then of course the $ are just a number, and odds are odds.

Yeah, but isn't it pretty much a cliche that many LSNL recs/regs come not to fold? They might not see the game like a pro, but it doesn't mean the $$$ scares them. I see what you're getting @ though & I don't disagree necessarily.

Not a derail. Your tangents generally contain good insight.

Fwiw, I would shove for value, given the stack size remaining. But the participants in the thread that say this will hardly ever be called by a losing hand at a casino may have a valid point. It all depends on the read hero has on villain.

How many times do you jam this river with QJss and get called by a hand like T9o and think "how the f**k does he call a $350 bet here with top pair no kicker when I clearly rep an overpair?!"

This is an easy jam. Expect Tx to call about 50% of the time. Expect JJ-KK to call about 75% of the time.

THIS

So if you honestly believe that villain folds to a jam 85% of the time, then would you confidently pull a triple barrel bluff in this spot at 1/3? Would you confidently jam J9 or QJ here, knowing that you're getting folds 85% of the time?

I find it laughable that the same people who would criticise a triple barrel bluff on the basis that "this is pure spew, villain isn't going to fold river after calling turn" are the ones saying "you better size down on the river, people get scared of big bets, they'll fold TPTK and weak overpairs to a big bet the majority of the time".