1/3 with $6 utg straddle. Saturday @ 3:30pm.

Been at the table for about an hour. Every single player is white, male, and over 50 (except me). Table in general is loose/passive and loves to l/c. Single raised pots go 2-5 ways typically. Exactly zero 3bets so far.

V (250) is one of the few regular straddlers, opens way to wide but also limp calls some. Talks a bit and clearly thinks he's good. Haven't seen him fold his straddle yet, but I have a sample size of like, 3, so....

H (400) 39yo white male wearing out of town sports attire. Could be mistaken for a Wookie if running fast enough. I've played like 3 hands in two hours and V probably cares enough to have noticed this.

The rest of the table has between 200 and 500 stacks.

OTTH

H utg+1 to $25 w/ AhJh, loose passive fish on my left calls ($200), V in straddle calls ($250). 3 ways...

Flop: (70) 7h 4d 4h
V snap leads $75.

da fuq is dat?

In my experience, this type of spaz bet on a paired board from this type of player is just top pair almost 100% of the time. I would jam and expect to take it down then and there (and obviously, if he hero calls you with K7, you’re flipping).

Yeah I jam, expecting a lot of fold equity and sometimes get called by worse. Maybe say “if you got it you got it.”

This. Usually works.

1 +1 - expect him to have 7x most of the time. If he had a 4 he'd think about it a bit more. 2 overs, flush draw, and a bunch of fold equity mean this is a jam nearly always.

I limp in and evaluate but that's me.

And I'd probably just sigh shove over this donk. It's a little scary because he's put in about 1/3rd of his stack so he might have a hard time folding. But we only need a little bit of FE to add to our good hand equity to be a decent fave here with nice money in the pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I really don't think we have any FE, this guy probably has a 4 with his wide pf range, and this player type could do this to protect his hand against a flush (donking out for pot otf) so to me it just looks like a math problem. We're an under dog with no FE and we probably have at best 40% vs JJ/QQ; but only about 25% vs most of his range so folding isn't out of the question here for me at all.

I agree with the other posters, with the addendum that I think this snap bet has a good chance to be a mid-low pocket pair that saw a "safe" no-paint flop.

what range do you get 25% from?

4x

He lead out for pot otf 3 ways, people don't usually do this (unkown people to be specific, unless we know more about them) with small pairs or even FD's, they would probably donk out for a lot less or c/c, since he's also said to be passive.

At low stakes trips usually either check raise or check call. Folding would be ridiculous.

Not everyone does, and yeah I'll fold ace high if I think I'm beat (why not?). Again I'm assuming we don't have any FE (which it doesn't seem like we do) ppl don't usually make a strong bet of 75 into 70 first to act in a 3way straddled pot with 150 behind only to fold, his bet sizing tells us a lot so his money's likely going in and we're putting ours in way behind vs a short stack.

Strong disagree we don’t have fold equity.

If he bet round hp or less I would slam dunk jam fwiw but he seems to be tryna shut it down with a big hand before the flush hits.

Folding seems pretty bad when we're like pretty much ~fiddy/fiddy against stuff like 88 but with relatively large dead money (i.e. preflop money) already in the pot.

Add just a mere 10% FE, and we move into pretty decent fave territory.

And super unlikely he's taking this line with a crushing boat (4x, ok, sure, but we still have decent equity against that ~worst case scenario).

Gforumaggrotard,ldoG

What does he think we have then? We opened UTG+1 in a straddled pot so we have all the over pairs. Why would he think his med PP's are good? He's looking to get value from our AA/KK and QQ's.

Group A : Regularly thinking/hand reading on Level 1 or higher and applying it to decisions.
Group B : Snap bombs full pot into 2 opponents OOP on flop

Not much overlap between these two populations. I do think there's a reasonable chance of trips in this guy's range due to other heuristics (Like Big Bets Mean Big Hands), I just think it's overwhelmed by all the hands we want to GII against regardless of fold equity.

I think we might have a tiny amount fold equity from hands like weak 7x, but I think it is not super likely he takes this line with 7x. To the extent he doesn't fold these hands it isn't a huge deal because we are flipping anyways, and possibly a very slight favorite. I find it more likely he just has a 4. But there is a chance he could have a 7x or overpair hand we are flipping against, and there is also some chance he can have a lower flush draw which we dominate.

I doubt he is balanced here, but I don't know in what direction. We're either printing or torching by jamming, but if he does have weaker than 4x, bet folds, or draws here, then jamming is printing so much that I think if we probability weight what range a random player would have here I think jamming is the highest EV play.

On the other hand I think calling is going to be a lot closer to 0 EV, but I feel more confident that it is going to be very slightly + EV. So jamming is somewhere between + $20 EV and - $20 EV, but I tend to think it is more of the positive side of the spectrum, whereas I think calling is like $0 EV to $5 EV.

LOL @ folding being mentioned.

Jam.

He could easily have a small-medium overpair and put us on / hope we have AK/etc. and just donk hoping to protect against the draws / overcards. Other than his sizing, its probably not even a horrendous play.

When we shove, he'll now have to re-evaluate whether his small overpair is good. He won't always fold them, but he only has to fold them a very small percentage of the time to make this massively +EV for us.

ETA: Not sayin' he can't have 4x... just sayin' that's not all he has.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't think he easily has med pairs, and if he puts us on AK, there's still another guy in the hand too that he's gotta deal with (heads up would be alil different).

In my experience, these over bets otf OOP in 3 way pots with two tone flops are bets to protect a big hand from a flush coming much more than a bluff hoping everyone has AK. Even if he as an over pair, we still need to draw out on him while being behind (at best it's a flip vs 7x) so I fold but that's just me.

I think this is a pretty easy jam. I agree with the consensus that this looks a lot more like 7x/88/99 than 4x. We're ~47% against below range with a couple of 4x combos in it and ~42% vs. exactly A7 so seems not too hard to GII.

[FONT=courier new][SIZE=12]
Board: 474
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.59% 46.44% 0.15% { AhJh }
MP3 53.41% 53.26% 0.15% { 99-88, A7s, A4s, K7s, 65s, 54s, A7o }
[/SIZE][/FONT]

We only have to draw out on TP/overpair if he manages to call our shove. Again, even if we get him to fold just a very small 10% of the time (noting that in reality I'm guessing this percentage will be decently larger), that moves us solidly ahead of flipping.

For example, do some EV math examples against black 88 (where we are a very slight 49/51 dog). Thanks to the dead money in the pot, even if he calls 100% of the time, our EV is $30. If he folds just 10% of the time, our EV is $41. If he fold 20% of the time (fairly realistic?), our EV is $53. If he flips a coin in his head whether to call vs fold, our EV is $87. [assuming I mathed right]

So we're printing money in these flippy situations thanks to dead money and FE. Obviously our overall EV will come down thanks to the times we jam into 4x at an EV of about -$74 (although does he really show up with 4x a lot due to preflop?). But there are also times we're a monster fave vs stuff like KQhh at an EV of about $102. [those EVs assuming 100% call of our shove]

GcluelessNLmathsnoobG

GG is like our canary for agressiveness. If GG is playing a hand agressively, it's 99.9% likely the right line.

Lol.

Gforumaggrotard,ldoG