Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
Even if he as an over pair, we still need to draw out on him while being behind
We only have to draw out on TP/overpair if he manages to call our shove. Again, even if we get him to fold just a very small 10% of the time (noting that in reality I'm guessing this percentage will be decently larger), that moves us solidly ahead of flipping.
For example, do some EV math examples against black 88 (where we are a very slight 49/51 dog). Thanks to the dead money in the pot, even if he calls 100% of the time, our EV is $30. If he folds just 10% of the time, our EV is $41. If he fold 20% of the time (fairly realistic?), our EV is $53. If he flips a coin in his head whether to call vs fold, our EV is $87. [assuming I mathed right]
So we're printing money in these flippy situations thanks to dead money and FE. Obviously our overall EV will come down thanks to the times we jam into 4x at an EV of about -$74 (although does he really show up with 4x a lot due to preflop?). But there are also times we're a monster fave vs stuff like KQhh at an EV of about $102. [those EVs assuming 100% call of our shove]
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Last edited by gobbledygeek; 08-02-2023 at 11:49 AM.