This may be true at 5/10 and higher, but it is really dubious at lower levels at least where I play. Overall at levels 2/5 and below, I think trying to leverage our stack size to fold out TPGK versus all but the nittiest players is -EV.

I'm not saying he's always flopped a set. I'm saying most of the time here we're an 8.5:1 dog, and some of the time we're much worse. And all our improving cards are scary (poor IO), there are few scare cards to rep (that don't actually hit us) and some of those times "improving" will cost us huge (unless he's a complete idiot, if we "improve" and get our huge stacks in, we mostly lose, right?).

GimoG

And how exactly are we a 8.5:1 dog against anything except AK? It’s disingenuous to say we’re that much of a dog most of the time when I explicitly laid out the combinatorics above showing far otherwise.

Also, we don’t have to make the best hand here to win. If I posted this hand as V and I led flop with KQs, got flatted by V in CO, then the turn was like a 4,6,7 or 9 and I bet 1/2 pot and got raised by CO, the entire world would be shouting FOLD. And rightfully so.

Stop answering gobbledy. Like debating a flat earther of poker.

You realize we're on a 5 outer to move ahead of any Kx (or any pair bigger than an 8) on the turn (if our outs are clean), right? That's an 8.5:1 dog to move ahead by the turn. And yes, sometimes he'll check the turn, so we're like closer to a ~4:1 dog to move ahead by the river (but this has to be offset by the times someone else gets involved on the flop, the time we "hit" and are no good, the times he simply keeps betting on the turn, etc.).

FWIW, this is a super good example of why PSBing the flop with top set into the world is typically a great idea in this case (where half the respondents in a poker forum think continuing on the flop here is fine, let alone what most of the typical players at a typical table would do).

Gbut,you'refreetodisagreeG

We’re not only continuing on the turn when we hit one of our 5 “outs,” though, so that analysis is inapplicable.

I feel that just cuz we're *sometimes* continuing on the turn without one of these 5 outs (and, FWIW, the flop action doesn't always end on our call) as justification for thinking that's going to make up for all the other times when we can't (plus all the bad things that can happen when we do hit).

In this case here, we basically nutted up on the turn if against an inferior hand and yet made up hardly anything if we didn't bet the river. If that's the best we can do in more-or-less the best case scenario, I'm not exactly convinced we're crushing it in the other scenarios.

GimoG

Except its not the best case scenario (which would've been a blank river or running clubs), and your analysis is grounded on always needing to make the best hand to win, which we most certainly do not need when we have position this deep and V will almost always cap himself to one pair hands.

River seems like a clear bet.

Who, except you, said anything about "getting stacks in"? With you everything always comes down to "getting stacks in" lol.