Hero ($900): Late 20's reg, probably LAG image, semi-bluffed V earlier but didn't show, just won a big pot to double up

V ($400): Older white guy, probably in his 60's, seems like typical tight-passive old guy, not quite old enough for OMC status

Two hands of note:

1. Against V a couple orbits ago I raise AJ to $12 UTG+1, two calls, V calls in BB. Flop QT5, V leads $25, I call, others fold. Turn 7 V leads $35, I raise to $125 with $400 effective, V folds.

2. Against a different V, I raise AQ to $12, V calls SB. Flop Q75 V checks I bet $20, he c/r to $45, I 3b to $100 with $450 effective, he calls. Turn K V c/c $100, river 9 V c/c my shove pretty quickly, no idea what he had.

On to the hand...

I am dealt A4 in HJ, someone raises to $12 in MP, I call, two more calls including V in SB.

Flop ($50): T73

Checks to me, I bet $40, only V calls

Turn ($130): 8

V checks, I bet $75, he calls

River ($280): 7

V checks, I bet $110, V shoves $270. Hero?

Anyone just shoving river or are we good with b/f or b/c here? Are we ever actually winning against described V when he c/shove river on board pair?

$160 to win $660? I don't feel great about it but can't fold for that price. Lower flushes, 7x, and boats make sense and your image seems pretty aggro so I think it's a call.

He shows up with a boat most of the time, also some small flushes. I think I would make a crying call here.

U could bet fold vs some players but vs random OMC have to call even though we are generally behind. Bet sizing seems fine...maybe a bit more on river but I'm ok with it.

^^^this.

Wouldn't this guy have check raised the flop with a set/top two??? Meh, I don't like it, but I'm calling it off.

Edit: Your bet sizing on the river looks good. No reason to shove.

" Older white guy, probably in his 60's, seems like typical tight-passive old guy, not quite old enough for OMC status" LOL being 67 myself I am glad (I think?) to NOT qualify for OMC status

No way on earth that this particular OMC (me!) shoves with anything you beat when I could call it down for only $110 more were I feeling generous

Fold the dead meat and curse the poker gods for pairing the board if it provides temporary solace

Snap call pls.

He should have x/r 2p or a set by the turn, he only x/c's twice like <20%. Expect mostly K/Q high flushes here, sorry you ran into the slowplayed set this time

In game this would be a really hard fold even for a tight MAWG like me. It takes so much discipline for V to check river assuming you will bet it. This really makes it a tough spot. If you have a lot of history and he knows you will bet river and you know he is extremely tight maybe on my best day I fold. Against someone I have limited history with I have to put enough flushes in his range to call. When I lose hands like these it actually helps me to say good hand and mean it. You gotta give it to a guy when he plays a hand with this line.

Good to see you posting Wj would like to see more from you. I hope to get to Vegas soon as I want another chance after my KK vs your set at Aria, LOL

I d probably check back that river.
AP call.

We are priced in my friend and he could possibly have
Lower flush w our image so snap..

Also in history hand vs villain do you guys think we can
Take down pot for less, like 80?
Or are we betting more here to look like we're
Betting for value w our image?

You are losing a lot of value by doing that. In order to maximize our winrate we should be looking for spots to get thin value. This isn't even close to being a thin value spot though. Super standard bet for value.

Its more of a boat for lower flushed would probably x/shove turn for protection.

Ap, i call.

Fair enough. Given action up untill the river, what range of hands are we value betting against OTR ?

What am I missing here... I just don't see how we can fold here.

Ranging Villains over the internet is pretty much impossible and it's likely no two people would do it the same way.

Here's my guesstimate.

There's not a lot of likely flush draw combos unless he's playing 32s or something. If he's value-betting all likely flushes and boats we're barely getting odds to call.

Board: Ts 7s 3d 8s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.261% 78.26% 00.00% 18 0.00 { TT, 88-77, 33, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, Qs9s, Js9s, 9s6s, 87s, 6s5s, 87o }
Hand 1: 21.739% 21.74% 00.00% 5 0.00 { As4s }

Since he's very likely not value-betting all his low flushes. I think it should be a pretty clear fold unless you include some sort of possible "he spazzed out" factor.

I think there's lots of various ways that the hand can be played. Anything from never semi-bluffing to sizing our bets to 3-barrel whether he hit or not.

Given how awkward the stack sizes are likely to be on the river I don't know whether it makes sense to semi-bluff the bluff -- though I guess we don't know which of the Villains will call and how big all their stacks are.

p.s. Did he call your flop bet with 87 and go runner-runner?

Given V's perceived image of hero in this spot, V could have got there with J9, and could be putting OP on anything but a flush or boat.

I'd have to call

I'm a nit and love to make big laydowns and I know people don't check/shove bluff rivers but I think your hand is a bit too strong to make this laydown.

OP, your sizing otr seems like you were b/f. What range of hands did you want to get value from? Also, how did he shove? Did he say "all in" or just silently slide his stack in? These physical actions matter IMO.

When he called flop with action behind and then called turn I thought his range was flushes and sets only after turn action, plus maybe something like KsTx but discounted that since he called pre from SB where he should mostly have pairs and suited broadways, at least that's what I usually assume when older passive players call raises pre from SB.

When he shoved he stacked the $70 on top of two stacks of red then said all in and pushed them over the line. Was listening to headphones so didn't hear if his voice was shaky or anything but he seemed to like his hand.

I think the board pairing otr is irrelevant in this spot. You have a psb left and should jam for value targeting smaller flushes and overpairs KsKx-JsJx. I've seen omcs flat with premiums from any position pre and get married post. As played, if your plan was to b/f river because he would never shove anything worse, then it's a fold.

He has top pairs, over pairs and lower flushes in his range and we should expect him to pay off most of the time on the river.

Yeah, agreed 100%. As played, call. You'll get a lot of 7x and smaller flushes showing up as well. Could be a FH, but gotta call getting 4-1. This is a super standard river bet.

How does he ever have 7x in this spot when he called pre in SB then calls almost PSB on flop with action behind and then calls again on turn?

Smaller flushes yes, but does he c/shove or just c/c when I triple barrel? Two of the flush combos are also a straight flush.

Since you describe him as not-quite OMC, I'm guessing he's not brain dead either. You've been LAGging it up, so it's possible he's calling down with a 7 vs your obv. air, got there on the river and decided for the ol' c/r.

Not likely, I admit, but I've seen a fair share of guys I play against spazz out with a naked 7 here. Hence, I'd lol call and be surprised (not shocked) we're good a fair amount of time.

I do agree that boats are possibility, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him flip one over after I called. However, I expect to see KQss, QJss, KJss, a lot too. I do agree a naked 7x is least likely to have gotten there unless he was tired of you "bullying" the table and taking a stand. I'd still call though. And if you're going to discount 7x entirely, sets should be discounted a bit too as shouldn't he have raised a set on the flop or turn to charge against 3rd or 4th spade coming?