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1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check 1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check

12-13-2014 , 08:39 PM
Hand at Red Rock....

Hero ($700): Late 20's reg, viewed by most regs as LAG, raise a lot of hands pre, seen as capable of semi-bluffing, overbetting bluffs and nut hands, not afraid to get it in when playing deep with draws that have good equity.

V1 ($550): Late 40's/early 50's Israeli guy, plays fairly often, doesn't have much of a fold button. I've seen him make big bets with nothing or garbage hands, calls too often, gets it in pretty light. Plays ATC from any position even for a big raise pre. Near 100% VPIP

V2 ($200): Early 30's white guy, just had his AA busted against obvious trips on paired board, seems to play pretty straight forward loose passive game.

V1 in SB, V2 in CO, hero on button. Hero dealt QQ

Hero button straddles $4, another reg in MP opens $16, V1 thinks he's calling $4 and then is forced to call the $16 since he put chips over the line. I call, SB calls. Since the MP opener is pretty tight and three of us are $500+ deep, I just flatted here since they probably fold almost everything to any kind of sizable 3bet, and QQ isn't the best hand to play this deep in a 3b pot. I probably 3b half the time and flat half the time here.

Flop ($66): J95

MP checks, V1 bets $45, hero calls, V2 thinks for about 30 seconds, then goes all in for $200. V1 says "how much?" and gets a count, then says "if it was $150 I would have called already. Ok I call". Hero shoves.

Fold or get it in? I don't think we can just call here.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-13-2014 , 08:44 PM
Given V1 description, and the fact that V2 is quite likely to be tilted due to both losing with AA and being forced to call more than he wanted pre-flop, I'm pretty happy with the line you've taken here. Given V1 description we can't just call.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-13-2014 , 09:05 PM
I think not 3betting here is a mistake regardless of MP open, it will be making other bad villains play a bigger pot while they are deeper, and possibility of isolating against a cold calling V1 and MP folding.

As played I can't find many folds since we under-repped our hand but we are definetly going to be sweating a lot of the deck IMO.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 12:00 AM
Definitely 3-betting here after straddling, especially if we are defending our straddle somewhat regularly and have a loose image.

I'm fine with flop action, our hand is definitely underrepped since we just flatted V1s initial open. Expecting to be up against AJ/KJ and some kind of flush/straight draw. Going to be a high variance spot since we can only be so far ahead, but I think it is the correct play.

Edit: Has V1 been chatty at all in the past? I feel like his little speech could be trying to conceal a monster and induce more action from us.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 12:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoLex
Definitely 3-betting here after straddling, especially if we are defending our straddle somewhat regularly and have a loose image.

I'm fine with flop action, our hand is definitely underrepped since we just flatted V1s initial open. Expecting to be up against AJ/KJ and some kind of flush/straight draw. Going to be a high variance spot since we can only be so far ahead, but I think it is the correct play.

Edit: Has V1 been chatty at all in the past? I feel like his little speech could be trying to conceal a monster and induce more action from us.
V1 is always a talker, doesn't matter if he has a monster hand or not
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 12:20 AM
Don't like the shove.

Only better hand calls now unless Villain doesn't like money.

If we are not going to 3-bet QQ on the button when will we 3-bet anything?

We let one, maybe both Villains into the pot and now are a big dog to J9, J5, and 95.

We are flipping for stacks with possible flush and straight and combo draws who got a cheap flop and now might beat us. At least we should have made them pay pre-flop.

Unless we really like playing for stacks with hands we let in cheap, it's a fold now IMO.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 12:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nozsr
Don't like the shove.

Only better hand calls now unless Villain doesn't like money.

If we are not going to 3-bet QQ on the button when will we 3-bet anything?

We let one, maybe both Villains into the pot and now are a big dog to J9, J5, and 95.

We are flipping for stacks with possible flush and straight and combo draws who got a cheap flop and now might beat us. At least we should have made them pay pre-flop.

Unless we really like playing for stacks with hands we let in cheap, it's a fold now IMO.
V1 is loose but I think he shows up with J5/59 just about never. I play in the same room most of the time so I mix up my play and occasionally flat big pairs, 3b garbage, raise speculative hands in EP, etc. Helps get paid off when I have it.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 01:50 AM
I don't mind your flat at all here. Stacks are deep, hero has position and likely has an edge postflop anyways. Mixing in 3bets and flats would be how I play in this spot and I would decide whether to flat or 3bet based on table dynamics and stack off ranges for V1. Some tables I'll pound 3bets in position getting players to play big pots OOP, but I don't always go for that strategy depending on table dynamics. It's important to consider preflop flexibility and not get so rigid on preflop requirements, especially in deepstacked play where hero has a postflop edge. If hero has trouble postflop and the players have an edge on you, I would advocate 3-betting keeping SPR's low almost always here.

Given that you think he doesn't do this with J5/59/95 I think I am liking a jam here. Obviously, you will not always have the best hand, but I think that there are enough worse hands to make this profitable. I definitely am liking having the Queens as blockers to the straight and the Q of spades for decreasing the draws to a flush.

This kind of V1 do not have trouble calling top pair here in my experience. He likely did not consider you shoving and there are just so many draws in villains range with him playing ATC. If your bankroll can handle some variance I think you show a profit pokerstoving all of the draws and Jx V1 calls with.

I definitely like that V1 did not shove here, most Villains are not competent and don't think about just flat calling to keep Hero in the hand if they are nutted. They would want to keep themselves from getting sucked out on by a draw. These V1 who call these huge PFR like to show that they do not care about throwing around big money. "Oh its only $150 I call".

I think if you pokerstove this then V1 is the exact reason your play shows profit here. All of his money that he gets in with top pair and weak draws helps your situation a lot. Also, if he is on a draw, his cards are likely to give V2 less outs on his flush draw, straight draw, or combo draw. Also, add in the fact that V2 is tilting, he could be raising all in with air here. I see it all the time on guys who steam at 1/2 with dead money. I think V2 would make this play with AK given frustration and tilt.

Last edited by bcmiddy; 12-14-2014 at 01:58 AM.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 02:03 AM
Yeah hands too underrepped to fold and v1 likely does not expect a jam here, think he could probably still find a fold for about 300? more with his over card/tp hands and
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 02:41 PM
Firstly, OP is screwed up with where Villains are seated. I assume V1 is actually the CO and is the one who didn't realize he was calling $16?

I will also sometimes not 3bet QQ preflop, but never for the reason you gave in the OP.

If a straightforward loose passive player is raising a bunch of people on this flop, I don't know why you think your hand is good anyway.

It seems like you think V1 is drawing here? If that is the case, you absolutely can call with position and shove blank turns, can't you? For $350 into a main pot of $600+, V1 may consider himself priced in but you'll have a bigger edge on a blank turn than you would getting it in now.

What range are you giving V2? Because unless you think you have V2 beat a lot, this shove seems like you are likely contributing $200 in near-dead money in the main pot to take a slight edge on V1 for the remaining $350. And if that is the case I don't think I like the shove.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
Firstly, OP is screwed up with where Villains are seated. I assume V1 is actually the CO and is the one who didn't realize he was calling $16?

I will also sometimes not 3bet QQ preflop, but never for the reason you gave in the OP.

If a straightforward loose passive player is raising a bunch of people on this flop, I don't know why you think your hand is good anyway.

It seems like you think V1 is drawing here? If that is the case, you absolutely can call with position and shove blank turns, can't you? For $350 into a main pot of $600+, V1 may consider himself priced in but you'll have a bigger edge on a blank turn than you would getting it in now.

What range are you giving V2? Because unless you think you have V2 beat a lot, this shove seems like you are likely contributing $200 in near-dead money in the main pot to take a slight edge on V1 for the remaining $350. And if that is the case I don't think I like the shove.
Good catch, V1 is CO and V2 is SB. I think V2 has all Jx and flush draws in his range so I'm still way ahead of that. Calling the flop $200 seems bad because if a spade comes and V1 shoves, are we still folding an overpair with spade redraw for $300 more? I can't think of any hands where I would just call the $200 on flop.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 04:37 PM
Holding the Qs is bad for H.

My first impression is you are way behind.

But if V1 is really this bad, and V2 is really this tilted to do this with 1p-, then gii.

I think most of the time this is a fold.

And I hate not 3b pre here.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Good catch, V1 is CO and V2 is SB. I think V2 has all Jx and flush draws in his range so I'm still way ahead of that. Calling the flop $200 seems bad because if a spade comes and V1 shoves, are we still folding an overpair with spade redraw for $300 more? I can't think of any hands where I would just call the $200 on flop.
If a spade comes and V1 shoves, I'm perfectly happy to fold. Once someone is all-in, people tend to make big bets very straightforwardly. I would be less surprised to see V1 check a flush on the turn than I would be to see him shove without one, and if I know I'm against a flush then I have at most 7 outs and can fold getting 3:1.

The fact that our redraw is the Q and not the A does matter a little, by the way. Since I'm not ruling out that V1 is drawing to an ace- or king-high flush, I think it's sort of a wash when our overpair is good (or we have more than 7 outs) versus when we are drawing dead on the turn.

EDIT: By the way, I'm not convinced you have the right range for V2. Loose-passives with flush draws call with them. Maybe he could have Jx but I think your range for him might be a bit too wide.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 05:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
If a spade comes and V1 shoves, I'm perfectly happy to fold. Once someone is all-in, people tend to make big bets very straightforwardly. I would be less surprised to see V1 check a flush on the turn than I would be to see him shove without one, and if I know I'm against a flush then I have at most 7 outs and can fold getting 3:1.

The fact that our redraw is the Q and not the A does matter a little, by the way. Since I'm not ruling out that V1 is drawing to an ace- or king-high flush, I think it's sort of a wash when our overpair is good (or we have more than 7 outs) versus when we are drawing dead on the turn.

EDIT: By the way, I'm not convinced you have the right range for V2. Loose-passives with flush draws call with them. Maybe he could have Jx but I think your range for him might be a bit too wide.
V1 should have plenty of hands like KsJx or TsJx in his range or even QT/8T with a spade, so if he shoves a blank turn or spade I don't think I can fold. Like I said, he doesn't like folding especially with $200 in already, so instead of c/c my shove, he would probably just open shove himself if I call. Once he has $200 in on the flop I think he calls his entire range when I shove.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 05:23 PM
I feel like this is a dream squeeze spot preflop. The fact that the guy was basically forced to call the raise is a golden opportunity. Given that you have a loose image already, this squeeze looks pretty bluffy and I feel like it's perfect timing. It looks like your trying to capitalize on that guy's forced call and j feel like people won't respect it as much.
I think it's a puke fold after the flop. Best case scenario, you're up against a draw.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 05:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
V1 should have plenty of hands like KsJx or TsJx in his range or even QT/8T with a spade, so if he shoves a blank turn or spade I don't think I can fold. Like I said, he doesn't like folding especially with $200 in already, so instead of c/c my shove, he would probably just open shove himself if I call. Once he has $200 in on the flop I think he calls his entire range when I shove.
I think that you are vastly overestimating how much V1 will shove into a dry side pot on the turn if you just call, but I agree that if you're right about that, then shoving now is better than calling. I also wonder if folding is better than both though. Seems to me like it's close.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 06:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
I think that you are vastly overestimating how much V1 will shove into a dry side pot on the turn if you just call, but I agree that if you're right about that, then shoving now is better than calling. I also wonder if folding is better than both though. Seems to me like it's close.
I know V1 pretty well. He's not going to c/c turn. It's either open shove or c/f, and he doesn't like folding. Since V1's range is so wide I thought even if I lose the main pot to V2, I had pretty good equity for the side pot if V1 called the shove. It wasn't a fist-pump GII though.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
I know V1 pretty well. He's not going to c/c turn. It's either open shove or c/f, and he doesn't like folding. Since V1's range is so wide I thought even if I lose the main pot to V2, I had pretty good equity for the side pot if V1 called the shove. It wasn't a fist-pump GII though.
Well, if you assume you're going to lose the main pot to V2, this is probably not a spot to get it in.

If you don't think you have a good shot at the main pot, but you have good equity against V1 for the side pot, then it's almost like you're paying $200 for the privilege of getting $350 into the side pot with V1 at 1:1 odds.

So let's say you have 70% equity against V1's range. That means you expect on average to collect (.7)(700) = 490 from the side pot, right? If you were only contributing 350, that would be massively +EV...but since you had to pay into the main pot first, you're actually paying 550 to realize your side pot equity, and that's not worth it without main pot equity.

If we assume that 70% number is correct, you need to get back $60 (550-490) in equity from a pot of 666, which means you need about 9% equity. It's not much, but it is also highly dependent on the assumptions about your side pot equity.

(And also, this spot seems to be close enough that you should clarify the numbers for the stacks. Did V2 start with 200 or did he have 200 after the preflop call? You said both in your OP.)
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
Well, if you assume you're going to lose the main pot to V2, this is probably not a spot to get it in.

If you don't think you have a good shot at the main pot, but you have good equity against V1 for the side pot, then it's almost like you're paying $200 for the privilege of getting $350 into the side pot with V1 at 1:1 odds.

So let's say you have 70% equity against V1's range. That means you expect on average to collect (.7)(700) = 490 from the side pot, right? If you were only contributing 350, that would be massively +EV...but since you had to pay into the main pot first, you're actually paying 550 to realize your side pot equity, and that's not worth it without main pot equity.

If we assume that 70% number is correct, you need to get back $60 (550-490) in equity from a pot of 666, which means you need about 9% equity. It's not much, but it is also highly dependent on the assumptions about your side pot equity.

(And also, this spot seems to be close enough that you should clarify the numbers for the stacks. Did V2 start with 200 or did he have 200 after the preflop call? You said both in your OP.)
I'm pretty sure V has like $210 to start the hand, don't remember the exact amount but it was right about $200 postflop. We can't assume that I always lose the side pot to V2....I should have like 50% equity against V2's range. I just ran it on my phone and against QJ+, JJ/99/55/J9/QT/8T/nut flush draws I have 63%. Take out 8T/QT and it's still 59%. Take out QJ and it's still 55%, adding AA/KK still 47%....so I don't see how I can be behind V2's range.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-14-2014 , 06:36 PM
You need both equities, not just main pot equity. That 70% number I was using was pulled out of nowhere. Plus you can't just run your equity against V2 for the main pot; you need V1's range in there as well. Then you need to run your side pot equity against V1 only.

I was playing around with various ranges and it looks like based on the information you gave that it is close, but shoving is OK.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-15-2014 , 03:15 AM
Preflop is a really fundamental mistake. You have a LAG image, villain 1 has near 100% vpip, and somehow you think he folds almost everything to a sizable 3bet? Something doesn't compute here.

If there were only decent regs in the hand it might be worthwhile to mix up flatting and 3betting for balance as it can be a consideration against them and you're not getting as much value from their bad calls (even so I have to think not 3betting close to 100% would be a mistake if you actually have a LAG image). Here 3betting gives you the opportunity to 1) get massive value from villain 1's wide calling range and 2) iso a bad player HU IP. Getting the MP opener to fold to a 3bet is somewhere from an ok to excellent result.
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote
12-15-2014 , 02:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
You need both equities, not just main pot equity. That 70% number I was using was pulled out of nowhere. Plus you can't just run your equity against V2 for the main pot; you need V1's range in there as well. Then you need to run your side pot equity against V1 only.

I was playing around with various ranges and it looks like based on the information you gave that it is close, but shoving is OK.
Assuming V2 always has QJ+, NFD/combo draw, or two pair+, I get the following:

Hero - 33.6%
V2 - 36.7%
V1 - 29.7%


Results:

Spoiler:
V1 takes about 5 seconds and says "ok, too much money out there, I call". Turn 9, river 5. V2 shows KJo, V1 shows A5o and scoops
1/2NL: Pile in 275bb with an overpair on the flop?  Line check Quote

      
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