Ok so this hand occured at a 1-2 game at the Beau rivage. If you have played there you know how deep the games can get even at a 1-2 table.


Villian $800
Hero $425
MP $300


Hero is in the CO and has played maybe two orbits absolutely no image and hasn't played many hands yet.

Villian is a bad reg that plays a bad lag style. However, he is semi-comptent and plays only mildly ******. Villian is "xxx" if any Beau regs are on here.

Mp is new to the table and has not raised much.

Anyways action starts with Villian limping from UTG +2, random limps, MP raises to 12, seat after MP calls, Hero calls in cutoff with 79 (I called because I was assuming Villian would call as well as the other limper), Villian and random call.

Flop JT5 ($50 pot)

Action checks around.

Turn 8 ($50)

WEEEEEEEE BINGO hero makes his gutter ball. Villian leads out for $40. Action folds to hero. At this point I'm not really sure what villian has as he is very lag and could be betting with total air. However, since he is very loose and will gamble with a worse hand I decided to make my raise fairly big here in hopes that I can stack him if he has two pair etc. I know Q9 is possible but unliely since I have a Nine already. Hero raises to $150. Villian immediately says, "How much you got?". Then tanks for a little and calls.

River 8 ($350)

FML. Villian snaps all in. Hero getting like 2 to 1 on his money here. Is this a Barf and call or should I fold here. I hate my life with that river card and how often is villian bluffing here. He is good enough to know I have a made hand so I doubt he is bluffing. However, with how ******ed he plays it is possible.

55 or flush is most likely followed by J10 or some kind of diamond+str8 draw that completely missed. Villain's don't normally bluff against someone who's shown alot of strength, so I'd fold unless you've seen him bluff in a big pot before.

fold

You have to be a little more solid in your reads and not so wishy-washy.

Is he bad or is he semi-competent?
Does he like to make a lot of moves and is he prone to shoving river a lot? Does he bluff a lot?

If i've noticed that this villain shoves scary rivers, then I call here.

If i've noticed that this villain value bets scary rivers when he hits, then I call here.

I also call here if villain is a bit of an ego-maniac aggro donk that loves to make plays.

Especially when he's asking you "How much you got" on the turn.

Sure, the river card is the absolute worst card in the deck for you. But if he's making a move, he was planning on shoving no matter what the river was.

Basically, against aggro maniac type villains, air is in their range a lot here. Enough to make a call +EV imo.

Or put another way. What would this villain do if he had KQ or J9 type hands?

Conversely, if villain hasn't shoved for stacks on river or hasn't gotten out of line with his shoves, then this is a fold.

So this is a very read dependant situation. Against a generic opponent, I would fold and folding would be +EV. But against aggro donks that love to bluff shove scary rivers, a call is +EV here.

i can easily fold this hand, too much beats you here