Villain is CO with $152. Loves to chase draws and often raises them. Super loose pre. Calls raises with ATC with no regard to position.
SB is standard short stack fish with about $75.

Hero is BTN has both covered.

1 Limp. CO limps.
Hero AQc raises to $12. SB and CO call
Pot ($40)
Flop-As8c7c

Check.Check. Hero bets $25. SB folds. CO calls.
Pot ($90)
Turn Jd
Check. Hero bets $60. CO calls.
River Qh.


1. Clearly, want to value bet both streets. Looking for a size that will keep his dominated draws in. Didn't think he'd call more than half his stack.
2. How do we value bet the river. He only had $55 back , and I can't imagine he'd call with anything I beat. Maybe Ax 2 pair I suppose. Looking back I suppose I could bet something stupid small and hope he shoves over.

just bet the 55. Pot is so big he'll call with any ace maybe worse.

I raise more preflop if CO ain't going anywhere and SB could call.

I bet pottish on flop so I can easily shove the turn.

As played, on the river the pot is $210, villain only has 1/4 PSB left, we've got top two, and it's been checked to us. This is a shove 110% of the time and anything else is horrible.

GcluelessNLnoobG

If you have a hard time in this river spot you need to retool your game. Ship ship shiparoo

yah, there are a lot of hands you beat that would call a bet. The final board is not threatening for you, and villain's action has been really passive throughout the hand, so he could show up with dominated 1 pair / 2 pair hands that will call for pot odds / pot commitment on the river. 9T is really the only legitamite hand that villain could have that beats you, but if he's going to check the river because he fears KT or something, he's got a severe screw loose.

If he had a set, you'd likely have heard about it. If he hit the KT straight by chasing clubs or something, which I think is about the least likely possibility, he'd likely jam the river (lol into a pot way bigger than his stack) because it's well concealed and, well, just like your bet will lay him good odds, his bet would lay you good odds too.

Also, trying to induce a shove with a worse hand is not going to work, because he's been so passive and if he has any sense at all he's going to know you can't leave a pot that big for just a bit more. Make him pay to see showdown, you easily have the best hand in this spot. You're thinking of specific hands that beat you, and expecting that they are the only hands that will call one relatively small bet into a large pot when all the cards are out. Replay the hand in your mind, and ask if any of those hands would play in this fashion on 3rd, 4th, and 5th street. There are situations where the "only better hands will call my bet" concept applies, but they take into account a series of actions that villain has taken in a hand in parallel with the nature of the board, and how it develops, street by street.

ranges shift according to your actions, as you have expressed. Villains are not going to call your raises with the same hands that they might initially lead with. They also might not lead with some of the same hands that they will call your bets with after checking into you in position. That's because you are going to bet some hands that are weaker than theirs in position after they check into you, or check behind giving them a showdown, or they don't, as you expressed you thought was the case in this hand, believe they will get called by worse or won't know what to do if raised (though the latter wasn't an issue as there wasn't really any money behind to play). What's at work here is that what you're feeling is probably going through your opponent's mind when he checks OOP, which really is a pretty sure sign of weakness in this situation given the previous action. He's asking "what can I beat that he would call my shove with?" supposing he has some kind of made hand and not a draw, because hopefully he's not contemplating bombing you off this river with total air.

I get the sense you don't really understand the magnitude of what you just typed.

I've played with these types of villains before in 1/2 and when I raise pre, I raise $25 - $35 and they snap call with zero consideration to the fact I just raised 12 - 18 BB.

Flop comes whatever and I bet pot and they call because there stack of chips is greater than the pot so it must be okay


I was playing a fish who I noticed could not fold a flush draw to save his life.

Game is 1/2NL, effective stacks $200

Hero(AJo) in MP ($500)
Fish on BTN ($200).

Turn ($65): A 5 8 8

Guess what I bet on turn? $200.

Fish snap calls with K T

why? because he was a fish and he had a draw and he "could" win.

My point? When you truly internalize just how bad players are, then you learn exactly how and what you should bet. Trust your reads and observations. Based on your reads and observations...

Bet a helluva lot more pre, and prison rape them come flop, turn, river when you hit. Be offensive with your betting and try not to laugh when they call.

Throughout the session, test the limits of your hypothesis. Raise $12 pre, then $15, then $20, then $25... find out just how big a station they are pre, what are their thresholds???

Do the same thing post. Do they even flinch at a 2/3 pot sized bet? What about pot? What about more than pot? What about an offensive all-in bet when the pot is less than 1/4 their stack?

These are the things you want to key in on as they can double or even triple your winrate.

Good idea. Prison rape is no laughing matter.

Very nice post, imo, dgiharris. Something I need to apply, too.

Here, I do raise more pre since villain calls ATC with no regard. Get it up there when you are this far ahead. Ideally, the others fold, too. And, yes, I'm betting $30-$40 on the flop and not slowing down until it's either in the middle or I commit myself just before the flush card falls. Get him in there while he's willing to chase. However, I need to jam this flop to $50 more often vs this type of villain.