1) $250 effective. Straddle is on ($5) and the fellow who straddled, he and I just got moved from 2/5 as the table shut down so this is our first hand. He is a 2/5 reg who plays TAG. BTN is a passive fish flatting with hands he should be 3betting - I know this because he was playing a bit on the 2/5 table earlier and completed sb with AdK and overall vpiping high with not much raising. OTTH

We have AK

MP limps, I raise to $35 in hijack, BTN flats, straddle flats, MP folds

Flop ($113) K 6h 9h

straddle checks, I bet $75, BTN shoves $175, straddle shoves for $210.

Hero: ??


2) In this hand, the btn and straddle are the same villains as previous hand. SB is a mega fish who clicks buttons, talks about "runs", lucky seats, lucky numbers, flats super wide, no fold button, does raise when he has strong starting hands. $235 effective, straddle is on again.

MP2 limps I raise to $35 in CO with J10dd

BTN flats, SB flats, straddle flats, mp2 folds

Flop ($148): 3Qd3d

SB leads $50, straddle calls, I call, BTN calls

Turn ($348): 9h

SB jams, straddle folds

We have roughly $140 left

Hero: ??

Snapping both. Not sure what there is to analyze here tbh.

1st one is tricky as described - Straddle is reg TAG player who presumably shares the same knowledge as you on button with all three of you being on same table previously.
Is there a case for a considerable overfold?

2nd one is a trivial call. you need 22% equity and likely to have about 30% close to worst case (3x, Qx)(Q3 you're obviously f**ked)

Hand 1: Pained call. Your going to lose more then win but it's $135 to call and there is $573 in the pot already. Can't fold TPTK for those odds on a wet board. Expect one to have a set a lot though.

Hand 2: Meh, thin call. You have too many outs on the turn to fold because SB has too many random 3X in his range.

Preflop was probably the mistake here. If you have to raise that big prelop relative to your stack you don't want to be messing around with JTs except as a very rare mix it up play. After that your odds are too good at every step to give up.

Hand 1 we only need 19% equity with TPTK on a disconnected board with a bunch of available draws after betting almost half of effective stacks with SPR <2. Who even cares about reads? BTN never folds NFDs or combo draws and maybe not even weaker draws. Doesn’t even matter if his made hands all beat us because there aren’t many combos of better.

Hand 2 isn’t thin. Folding is a massive blunder. We need 22% and have >30% against any reasonable range.

How was the 19% figure calculated?

H1: Spinz do we have the Ah? I think it matters.

H2: Just call with direct odds but raising 25 preflop with 235 eff maybe wasn't so good. Top off perhaps.

Our call represents $135 out of the $708 final pot. 135/708 = about 19% equity required. Having a side and a main pot makes a difference but not that big of one since the side pot is small so I'm not considering it.

More generally you can calculate the minimum success requirement based on pot odds expressed as win:risk with the formula risk/(risk+win). For another example when you bet half pot on the river as a bluff you're laying yourself 1:1/2 so it needs to work (1/2)/(1+1/2) = 1/3 of the time.

I mean, how do we know whether we have better than 19% equity...how do I calculate my equity in this position?

Good poker detective work. We're losing a lot here but maybe 19% we're good lol

Haha

We could construct a range for V and figure it out with software - however, I was wondering whether you’ve figured out a short cut or general rule of thumb for these

my general rule of thumb for these spots is instincts!
Honestly though, i think the answer lies in the dynamics between Hero, villain (reg) and then the fish.
Hero and villain reg should have a somewhat tacit agreement to be playing more straightforward vs each other when the fish in the pot. its bad for EV for both of them otherwise.
If villain is a complete war-like reg then its different but i think we're good a fair chunk less than 19% here. If we're not, make notes on this guy for future pots.

Hand 1 Results:

I tanked for 2 mins and folded. Button tabled 9s for a set, and straddle was on a draw which he missed.

Hand 2 Results:

I called off, button tanks forever and folds (says he folded kings). We miss the river and SB tables Aces lawls.

Well played