Played this hand recently. Thoughts are appreciated.

$1/2 table.

Hero has been playing TAG, but is likely viewed as a nit. I opened one hand with 89ss utg and got 3b squeezed by an aggro villain and said I folded TT, but really I had 89s. He believed me. Hero sitting with $700

Villain is a younger player. He is thinking. Probably small loser at 25NL online. He raises hands like KJ/AJ in MP. Bets draws. Has had a few bluffy/spewwy plays vs fish when he thought he could "rep" something. I have seen him bet a strong hand when there is no value from worse. He doesn't seem to think "Bet for value, bet for bluff", but seems to think; bet because hes weak, raise because hes weak. Villain is sitting with $200

SB is fairly fish. gets attached to tptk, draws etc. Not super spew, but loose.

Pre: Villain limps in MP, CO limps, BTN limps, SB completes, Hero has K4hh in the BB.

Flop ($10): 4d 8h Jc

SB checks, hero checks, villain bets $8, BTN calls, SB calls, hero calls (yeah?)

Turn ($42) Ah

sb checks, I tank check, villain bets $30, SB calls, hero raises to $110

Thoughts?

How deep is SB?

Honestly, I don't remember. Let's assume 100bb

Fold flop.

Why are you peeling on the flop?

I wasn't sure on this. I think the K and 4 are clean outs for me to win, so I have 5 outs. 6 if you count the BDFD. Still a fold?

I called planning to c/r if I hit anything on the turn.

Your K is not clean. Your 4 might be, and bdfd is frankly worth s**t.

Okay, say the K is not clean. Given my relative position, I can find out if it is. Example; Say a K comes on the turn.. I check, villain is betting a high % of turns, then I get to see if the field flats or raises.

If the turn comes a 4, same situation.

If the turn comes a heart, same situation.

Maybe im a nit, but im folding the flop. Seems like a very high variance play. I like to try and find safer scenarios to try and win my $.

Maybe it's high variance, but is it +EV?

I'm risking $190 to win $102 and I have about 24% equity. I can't remember the formula, but I think I have to get a fold something like 70% to be profitable.

I'm probably folding any 1 pair hand and T9. Villain is raising jj/88/maybe 44/AJ pre, so the only hand that could call my raise is A8o and A4s (assuming he folds J8s/48s pre).

IMO his range here is; 8 A8o, 3 A4s, 30 J9o-JKos, 6 Axs, 6 T9's, 5 air.

what was your plan on a turn that didn't improve you/what story are you trying to tell here?

will the thinking player fall for this line that is usually air/set+ maaybe 2pr.

What is SBs stack size?

The Ah is the perfect card to make this play on, but it seems like most turns you have to give up unless you want to put in 55 more bb with bottom pair no draw.

Fold flop.

Fold flop. Calling is marginal but not completely horrible.

Turn is a great card especially against our MP villain who likes to value-bet superlight. Just call and hope to hit the miracle runner runner flush - for which we'll have great implied odds. I normally prefer to value bet rivers oop but against this guy I think we can go for the river c/r cuz he's often betting when checked to.

Trying to bluff 2 players oop here is a little spewy IMO. Most of the time we raise we should be planning to get it in (and indeed with these stack sizes we will be committed once we put in the c/r). The c/r size is also a little weak. A pot sized raise would be to $160 so I'd probably be making it to about $120.

i like a flop c/r more than a call, you could win it right there or go on to fire the turn

*grunch*

I like leading the flop. It looks a lot stronger than c/c because we're betting into the field. We can credibly rep made hands [44, 84, J8, J4] because we got a walk in the BB. Also, I'd probably bet with [55-99, 56cc/hh/dd, 67cc/hh/dd, 9Tcc/hh/dd] so it balances alot of stuff. With the IO of our backdoor flush, we can play for stacks, so I like to build the pot.

Also, I prefer to build pots myself. It's possible (but unlikely) that we can take it down right here with our pair, and being aggressive allows that outcome to be a non-zero%. bet/call from villain, bet/fold from others.

As played, I think c/r is the best line to take because villain will fold a good % of the time. 1st, we still rep all the made hands listed above. 2nd, I find that if you play back at this type of villain (or any, for that matter), you have to hit the top of their range for them to continue. In this case that would be 44, 88, JJ, AA, AJ, A8, A4. We can discount AA, 88, AJ, JJ definitely because they are likely to be raised pre flop. So [44, A8, A4] is what he'd be comfortable stacking off with. There's too few combos of those and a c/r will get alot of folds from the rest of his range. Plus, we have outs to the best hand. while I'm not thrilled if called, I'll accept variance.

fold flop

I like preflop.

I just fold the flop. We've got 3 others interested in the hand on a fairly drawless board, so obviously we're behind. A K might end up being a terrible card if someone has KJ, so really we're just drawing to the 4, and we might be drawing dead, plus we're OOP (harder to make money if we hit).

Even though villain might be spewy, he's still betting fairly large on the turn into 3 opponents, which indicates strength (which we shouldn't be bluffing / semi-bluffing against). We're getting over 3:1, so I simply call the turn and hopefully back into my fairly well disguised hand.

GcluelessNLnoobG

+1 - I think you're falling victim to the pot odds fallacy here - oh, there are 3 other players calling, so my odds are great; I'll just call along. The problem is that everyone must have at least some piece of this board. Hitting your K will likely give you a better 2pair if someone else flopped 2 pair, but you have to realize everyone else's hand is improving as well. Someone could have 56, 67, 79, T7, T9. Someone could be on a back door diamond draw. Someone could have a jack, someone could have an 8. That means that any 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, T, J or Q on the turn could leave you drawing dead. Same for running diamonds. If you hit your king on the turn and someone else makes their trips, straight, or flush oon the river, it's even worse for you. Even in position I'm folding this flop unless I am confident of my reads and willing to push back on the flop, but OOP this is an easy flop fold - you are almost definitely behind and your reverse implieds are higher than your positive implieds.