I'd like other opinions on this hand I played tonight at my local 1/2 game. Game has been pretty uneventful.

Hero ($270ish): 30s male. Been very quiet this session, probably to the point of being nitty. Won a big pot with AA vs KK when I first sat down. Been card dead since then. Table views me as quiet. Been at the table for 4 hours.

V1 ($400ish): Approx 60 y/o male. Friendly. Reg in the room, though I haven't logged many hours with him. 1/2 and 2/5 player. He's in the game for $800-900 though. He wasn't doing so well when I first sat down. He was bleeding chips and eventually shoved his last $80 in blind. Was still visibly in a good mood though. He left for 45 minutes maybe. Been much more reasonable since he's been back. He's won a few chips and appears to be back to normal. He has been opening pre somewhat often, so I don't feel his opening range is super tight or anything.

V2: 30s male. Quiet, nitty. Mostly irrelevant in this hand.

When I first got to the table, I checked on a buddy of mine who is another reg player and was in a tournament. We both knew him. We spent a minute chatting about the casino and the tournament.

We've also played one notable hand together. He raised to $12 from BTN. I call from BB with SCs (sloppy, I know; should have just folded). Three others call. I flop a FD and bet 1/3 pot. Only V calls. We both check a blank turn. Flush hits river which also pairs the board. I bet 1/3 pot, he just flats with 2nd nut flush (QJ of hearts). I go back into my shell after this hand.

I've also seen V1 raise somewhat light on the turn in another hand I was not involved in. He flopped a FD and called a bet. He turned top pair (ace). He min-raised the turn, then lost at showdown.

OTTH:

V2 limps UTG. One other limp. V1 limps the BTN. SB completes. I check with Ac10s.

Flop ($9): Ah 10d 9c

Hero bets $8. V1 and V2 both call.

Turn ($31): 5d

Hero bets $23. V1 calls. V2 messes with chips and raises to $123 pretty quickly.

I've got $100 and change left. Flatting is obviously out of the question.

Possibilities for V: A10, A9, A5, 1010, 99, 109, or some funky combo draw like 78d. I discredit 1010 or 99 somewhat because I really feel like he should raise those hands pre. Maybe he'd limp 99..? But from the button?

I don't think he's messing around. He has something he likes. And he knows how tight I've been playing. I haven't seen him raise this big before. Earlier in the post I said he was bleeding chips, but that was from calling. Not from raising. It's clear his raise makes it to where he can't fold to my shove.

Hero?

Thanks for all feedback.

V2 messes with his chips and raises $123?
V2 or v1?

Either way I am shoving. If he has a set so be it. We have outs.

Yeah must be V1 raises.

I'm inclined to agree with you kansaispura - raiser can have a lot more worse 2-pair than he has sets after overlimping the button.

Just thinking it through, at widest raiser has: 10 combos of sets, 4 combos AT and 21 combos A9/A5/T9. There is no way he is always limping behind with AA and probably not TT/99 either. Whether he overlimps all Ax and offsuot connectors from button I don't know but it is possible, more the connectors than A-rag I suspect.

Does he raise all those 2-pair that big on turn though? This is what I have trouble with: the evidence from the two shown down hands mentioned is that V1 minraised turn HU in order to get a showdown on the river and played the third nuts carefully without a raise.

Those two hands suggest this is something different. He has raised a pot committing amount vs two tight players when one of them is trying to build a pot OOP. Unless OP and V2 have shown ridic weak/tight tendencies there is no way this is a bluff.

The Q-high flush hand shows it isn't likely a raise with bottom 2-pair either. I mean what does V1 think hero has for him to get value out of? Hero doesn't look like he has a big Ace after checking the big blind vs two limpers. Villain has to realise neither hero nor V2 can call this raise with worse than 2-pair.

If it isn't a bluff and he expects to be called by 2-pair or better he has to have at least A9 IMO. That puts his range at something like 1/4 combo AA, 3/4 combo TT, 2combo 99, 3 combo 55, 4 AT, 2 76dd/87dd and 6 A9. 3 we are losing to but have 4 outs, 4 we split and, 2 we're ahead but he has significant equity and 6 we have crushed.

What impact does V2 have on our decision? He's tight and has called two bets from another tight player in a 3-way pot. He must have something too. I doubt he is continuing without a very strong hand and he was the one who open limped and that from utg. There us a very real danger V2 has a set here too.

If hero shoves at this point I think V1 has a hard time folding any of his raising range but V2 will probably fold everything we beat and continue only sets and QJdd. Could V1 fold A9 to a shove here? If so I think there are so few draws out against hero (FD appeared on turn after all) that hero should just call turn and gii on river. That way he is keeping both V's ranges wide as possible.

However, if you start to think (which I'm inclined to) that vs two tight players who have made and called two bets OOP V1 has to have at least a set here then it is a fold. I know I sound nitty but this is a hand you are only playing because you got to check it in the big blind. You've only invested 15bb. You can just walk away now and potentially save 120bb and you may still see the villains' hands if V2 continues.

After laborious thought I nit fold this as an unnecessarily risky gamble with a secondary strength hand.

I've seen quite a few 3 and 4 way allins in my time and while not all hands that play like this to this point go multiway allin most hands that go multiway allin look like this just before they go allin

All-in.

OTf: too small. You bet just under pot, but it's a limped lot and you're OOP. In limped pots ($6-14 depending on number of limpers) when I am OOP, I pretty much bet $15, at least. Your bet is big relative to the pot, but very small relative to stacks.
OTT: V can easily have a lot of hands you beat. Against his range, this is a call or shove. I'm not folding top two here with these stacks, and I'd prefer to GII now bc the river could freeze action.

The post is odd bc V2 is the one who raises and you describe him as quiet, nitty, and irrelevant.

But, regardless, against most opponents, you're facing T9 or A9 here most of the time. Maybe he spiked a set of 5s bc the flop bet was so small or maybe he flopped a set of 9s but I agree that 99 is very likely to raise preflop, so unless he is very passive, I think you can discount that a bit. 99 is still very possible, but, it's so much more likely he has T9 or A9 and your hand is good.

Ship it.

Just to clarify: V2 calls my turn bet, V1 makes the raise. Got those backwards.

Yeah, I'd ship it.

55 very unlikely (folding flop).

99, TT somewhat unlikely (usually raising pre).

Worse two pair is very possible. The combo draws you mentioned are very possible.

Given likely range and combinatorics (sets are way harder to have than two-pair; there are also a fair # of [combo draws / pairs + draws] out there like 98dd, Axdd, you name it, etc), I'm shipping and feeling pretty OK about it actually. Don't love it, but feel OK.

Appreciate the feedback so far. I'll see if anyone else chimes in, then I'll post the result.

I once lost 30$ folding in almost this exact spot. Aggressor showed up at the river with AJo and caller had KTo or something.

TT,99 only 4 combos. AT=4combos. A9,A5,T9=18combos

=Shipperoo

I thought this was a standard cooler and maybe it is.

I shoved, and he snapped with 99. Nice hand, and I left. And still, I'm ok with the play. But I wanted to take time to break the hand down and avoid simply shrugging and shipping.

Good analysis Rage. I enjoyed reading it.

Thanks, I think if you didn't have those two specific reads from shown down hands it would be totally standard cooler.

Also it is easy for me to assume you lost because you posted the hand so, even though I try not to, it is possible I've partly reverse engineered the hand from the premise that posted hand = OP lost.

Basically I would struggle to make this fold in live play. I wouldn't have the time to think it through or I wouldn't remember the shown down hands accurately enough. Sounds nerdy but I'm planning on using a notebook at the table to record hands that showdown in future.

Anyway, shown down hands are solid gold for reads and you have to remember them and put them to good use. Sounds like you have the memory and, as someone without one, that's the biggest hurdle.