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1/2 top pair bluff catch river? 1/2 top pair bluff catch river?

02-16-2015 , 02:29 AM
Villain (BB): 40s asian man; not as loose as your typical 1/2 fish, but no TAG either ($400)
Hero (BTN): mid 20s asian man; TAG reg ($250)

Three limpers to hero who makes it $16 on the BTN with A2. Villain calls in the BB and one of the limpers calls.

Flop: AT3 ($53)

Checked though.

Turn: 9 ($48)

Villain bets $25. Limper folds hero calls.

River: 3 ($98)

Villain counts out $50, thinks then slides it forward. Standard call getting 3-1? I checked back the flop to keep their ranges wide. I was gonna bet two streets for value but he did it for me. The river helped my kicker so now I'm only beat by A9+ and backdoored hearts along with a few combos of monsters. Of course I'd rather have him x/c two streets like a hand like JTs than him bet two streets.

Last edited by LordRiverRat; 02-16-2015 at 02:34 AM.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 02:56 AM
Eh. On the surface it looks like an obvious call getting 3-to-1. But the real problem here is that we're calling hoping for a chop. When we're right, we usually win $49. When we're wrong, we lose $50.

I suppose V can have JQ/J8/87 occasionally, but that seems pretty unlikely. Most loose 1/2 players aren't playing their backdoor draws that aggressively. If he's the type of player who does so, you probably would've seen that before and made note of it.

So if we assume this isn't a busted straight draw, then we're left with a range of ace-x and made flushes. We chop with A2, a4, a5, a6, a7, and a8. We lose to a3, a9, a10, aj, aq, ak. Throw in the flushes and the occasional 99 and this looks like a -EV call to me.

BTW this is why I hate your flop check. What hands are calling your two streets of value after you've checked the flop? Maybe 1010/JJ/QQ/KK, but those probably aren't in there since there was no 3!.

Bet the flop, give players with a weak ace the opportunity to fold/players with a gutshot or middle pair the opportunity to call. If they do call, you can take a free turn and evaluate river. You have a weak top pair hand and there's 26 bbs in the pot already. Go ahead and bet it rather than trying to set up a showdown.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 03:09 AM
I agree, you should lead that flop unless your read on the villain is he will bet the turn really light if you don't cbet. This V doesn't seem like that type of player though. Id fold river as i'd think a lot of his range is beating you.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 03:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sierradave
Bet the flop, give players with a weak ace the opportunity to fold/players with a gutshot or middle pair the opportunity to call. If they do call, you can take a free turn and evaluate river. You have a weak top pair hand and there's 26 bbs in the pot already. Go ahead and bet it rather than trying to set up a showdown.
I don't get this. So you're saying bet flop to bluff someone else off a weak ace yet at the same time try to get Tx or a gutshot to call?
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 04:25 AM
We are betting flop to win now rather than play a weakish hand a full board. 1 bet will not get folds from many A's 3 handed IMO but it will fold out most of their range as this flop is really dry...but cbeh and flatting turn is just setting us up to letting V's get there on backdoor draws when we can't really do anything other than call down turn and river if they lead both. And id probably fold almost all rivers if they continue with the latter after we have checked flop.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 05:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize
We are betting flop to win now rather than play a weakish hand a full board. 1 bet will not get folds from many A's 3 handed IMO but it will fold out most of their range as this flop is really dry...but cbeh and flatting turn is just setting us up to letting V's get there on backdoor draws when we can't really do anything other than call down turn and river if they lead both. And id probably fold almost all rivers if they continue with the latter after we have checked flop.
So instead of keeping their range wide so we can extract value from weaker hands like Tx you're saying to turn our hand into a bluff and just try to take it down on the dry flop?

Last edited by LordRiverRat; 02-16-2015 at 05:43 AM.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 05:53 AM
I think this is a very easy b$25/fold
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 07:25 AM
So when you raise pre-flop OTB with A2s, is it for value? So when you hit the Ace you're ahead and will use your button to b/f 2 or 3 streets with reasonable bet sizing?

Or is it more to represent a big Ace, and b/f 2 streets hoping people might call one street and then fold?

Because when I raise with A2s it's pretty much a bluff. I find that when an Ace hits I can't get value from smaller pairs on relatively dry boards, and am dominated when I am called. Against regulars, I double-barrel flop + turn representing the big(ger) Ace, against loose non-regs I pretty much just c/c all the way hoping smaller pairs grow some balls, against tight non-regs I can usually find a fold if he leads out.

In this situation it's looking to me a lot like an Ax, followed by a small percentage of flushes. IRL I think I would probably just call because I think it's close, and it can tilt me a lot (personally) when I fold trying to make hero folds. With the benefit of time, no pressure, and no tilt factor, I fold.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 08:39 AM
Why are we 8x'ing it from the button with A2? This is really bad. This is a pretty standard overlimp on the button with a hand that you can win a ton of money in a multiway pot. Weak suited aces play much better multiway than they do vs 2 or 3 villains. You are essentially turning a hand with great potential into a reverse-implied odds hand.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 09:27 AM
Limp pre. Low Axs plays very well in late position against limpers. We want to hit a flush draw or else be done with the hand. Raising with a weak hand like A2s is more a bluff than for value. We can expect at least one of the limpers or blinds to call. Not a great spot. I rarely limp pre, but this is one of the exceptions to the rule, imo.

Bet the flop. Very few players will continue without top pair on a bone dry A high flop. Your SPR is under 5. Take it down asap.

As played, I would only call if I've seen V bluff before or overvalue top pair. I think hero loses more than wins if the pot isn't a chop. Low stakes live players limp/call pre with all kinds of suited junk. Most hands worse than A2 give up and check the river.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 09:39 AM
Couple things:
I like a limp on button preflop. You have position, a NFD, and since you're aggressive and they expect you to raise any ace, deception.
OTF: unless your Cbet frequency has been super high, I think you have to bet this flop. You have a weak ace and are unlikely to improve. you may take it down, you may get called by a sticky opponent with a worse hand (or a better hand, but with position, you can drive the action or check behind on turn). If you get check raised, you can fold. But you're also against more than one opponent. HU, checking behind with top pair can be a great way to control the pot size ands get value later, but multi way against typical opponents, you let them catch up to beat you too often
OTT: as played, did you give any thought to raising turn? I think the line to check flop with an ace and get two streets of value can be a good one but when opponent comes out firing, I start to wonder if my hand is good. I think I'd sometimes raise here to either take it down or set up a possible free showdown. The turn card in this hand brought a lot of back door draws into play so now might be the time to get value.
As played: OTR: I don't like this spot. Depending on reads, maybe you have a call, but typically, this is a fold. The back door flush getting there gives you even more reason to fold (possible flush doesn't seem to scare V). Even if our three possible outcomes were evenly weighted -- call and win; call and chop; call and lose -- it's still not a great spot for us and I think we are losing more often than winning or chopping. And I hate calling for a chop. I just think you're beat here and it's time to fold.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 11:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat
I don't get this. So you're saying bet flop to bluff someone else off a weak ace yet at the same time try to get Tx or a gutshot to call?
Wrote that one too fast, let me clarify:

There are Vs who call loose, but then play carefully post. If you bet this flop, they'll fold a lot of Ax's. (I would fold most Ax's here, for instance. I'm in bad position against a tag pfr. I can win a little or lose a lot.)

There are also villains who think any piece and any draw is worth pursuing. Their 10s could now become trips. They could hit that gutshot. And there are Vs who will float between those stances, based on tilt factor and whether they think you've been raising too much.

In all cases, you're better off putting them to a decision on the flop. Your hand has big potential RIO problems. Don't try to extract lots of extra value with it. Give them a chance to make a mistake.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 07:01 PM
Limp pre, fold now
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote
02-16-2015 , 08:11 PM
Given that button versus blind confrontations don't come around too often in live I think it's probably a good fold on the river.
1/2 top pair bluff catch river? Quote

      
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