1/2 $300 max NL - 2nd of my 2 hands with top 2 I thought were interesting

Villain ($300) Younger guy - apparently a reg. I haven't played with him before, but my friend told me that he's supposedly decent, but he's seen him make some questionable plays. He does stuff like limp/call TP-ish hands utg and sometimes pays moderate bets. So far he's played fairly tight - called some raises but hasn't 3b yet. He's open raised a little but hasn't been iso-ing much. The table is super nitty and I'm trying to table change at this point. Should be a thinking player and should be able to lay down top pair to strong action.

Hero ($350) The table is super nitty, so I'm trying to open wider and play my cbet game. Villain sat down about an hour ago. I haven't really got good cards for the last half hour so I haven't really been crazy aggressive. I don't think I've been to showdown at this table, so villains really don't know what my range might be when I open raise.

folds to hero in MP
Hero (MP) KJ raises to $8
Villain (button) calls $8
BB calls $8

Pot~24
Flop: Kj2
BB checks, hero bets $15, villain raises to $35, BB folds, hero calls

I think this is different from the other hand in that the board is really dry - the only draw is QT. He never has K2 or J2, so the only 2 pair he can have is the same hand as me. Obviously he can have bottom set, and I guess there's some chance he could have JJ although there's only 1 combo.

I'm not really worried about being beat, but if villain has a hand like AK or KQ and he's at all a thinking player, if I bet/3b this board he has to think I have a hand like AA or flopped a set or at least have AK.

Is it a bad plan to call flop and then lead turn and river? Vs this guy who should be a thinking player, I think I could also call flop, c/c turn and possibly lead river or even c/c or CR river because he should be good enough to value bet a strong king if the board bricks out.

Anyway that was my plan - lead brick turns.

Pot~94
Turn: K J 2 T
Hero checks, villain bets $55, hero calls.

I don't think the Tc really improves villain unless he specifically has a hand like QT. He can't have Kxcc. I don't think he's raising flop with KT - that would be a little thin, although if he has KT he's going to bet anyway.

I thought if I came out and bet here he might be afraid I have a huge hand - I could have turned broadway with AQ, I could have 2 paired up if he thinks I was bet/calling KT or JT, or I could have flopped a set and now I'm betting out because the board got scarier and I want to protect.

I thought he would keep value betting AK and maybe QK (b/c he's open ended now). I could CR here too - would you guys put a raise in? I just think unless he has KQ or MAYBE QT he's not going to call a CR. It's not like I'm going to pay off if an ace or 9 hits, and I don't know if he bluffs those cards with air b/c I could easily have a queen in my hand.

Pot~205
River: K J 2 T 8
Hero?

Is this a lead or a c/evaluate? I know I played it weird, but I got some bets in.

The problem I have here is that if I lead, my line may look weird but if he has Ak or KQ what does he possibly beat? I'd have to be turning AJ or QQ into a bluff, which no one does at this level. I'm sure he can imaging a million hands that beats him, and I just don't see how he can have 2 pair and raise the flop.

If I check and he moves in for $220 or whatever, it's actually pretty weird b/c that might be an overplay for 22. But he doesn't seem to be aggro, and with this board I'd have to give him credit for a monster.

Since I'm playing top 2 kind of a bluffcatcher/value own line, should I keep trying to get him to value own himself?

Or should I make a small lead - something like $60 or $65 and specifically try to get looked up by AK? If he raises the river, I just don't know how I'm ever good. Put us in his shoes with KT - if I c/c turn and lead river I'm either bluffing or I have a better hand than KT - so I don't think he shoves over me as a bluff or for value.

Hand is okay and were definately not folding the river. I expect him to fire another bullet so I think c/c is fine. As you state, if he shoves a river lead I want to throw up so c/c keeps our hand under repped enough to get him to barrel with weaker 2pair and Kings and missed straight.

I agree that leading turn will get a lot of fold, but I don't like the call on turn.

Given villain's turn bet size, I believe villain has SD value in his hand, and therefore villain is less likely to bet river after calling turn. The likelihood of him folding river lead is also much higher than turn lead, given that he would call draws like QT on turn, but not on river.

I like CR on turn to about $120 and shove river.

I'm raising flop, why call the flop? Llsnl can't fold tp, so get the money in or fold if you think he only raises sets. Its a vibe thing.

Well, clearly if I don't think villain can fold, I would re-raise flop back.

On the other hand, few would raise the flop to check behind a rather safe turn, and if he does raise on a draw, it would probably be apparent after a few instances.

Bet/3-bet is pretty strong in most games as the pre-flop raiser.

He's supposedly one of the only thinking players there, and if he's not going to 3b AK I don't think he's going to raise/4b shove or raise/call and then call off AK here.

I was thinking of CR the turn, but I think the 10 is a bad card in that a lot of the hands that AK beats now improve to beat AK, so at that point I really don't think he's going to call b/c it looks like I have AQ or something.

It doesn't matter though, because a lot of villains aren't betting river in similar spot after you call the turn.

So the question is which line is better: CR turn or donk river?

I like CR turn because we are charging for the river obviously.

The way he raised the hand on the small side to me it seems like TP. JJ and 22 are his 2 sets (6), AK, KQ are twice as likely (12). People generally dont 3b AK live nor JJ. If he is questionable on some plays then to me it seems like he is just a typical educated player.

So typical reg who looks good but does some "rhu rho raggy" plays occasionally will check down TP hands on the river. Can think level 2 but not beyond and plays a little scared.

If it was me, I think I would bet the turn. If he has KQ he has 11 outs, AK has 7 outs. I doubt he will fold. Even 22 will slow down. If anything you will get a read on him. if he calls you can bet small on the river to get those K hands to call and lose the least vs 22.

But in this hand it depends on a lot of other things also.

Also how long did it take him to raise? Did he take his time, did he think, did he look at the other player? How long did you take? So many depends. What was he doing while you bet?