5am at Harrah's Las Vegas. Table is 3 handed. Three white guys in their late 20s. All fairly deep. Mandatory $4 straddle on button.

Villain in this hand has poor fundamentals (during full ring VPIP/PFR was 60/15; bet sizing can be off) but has a lot of experience. Has worked as a dealer. At least knows how to identify the fish and value bet effectively. Against hero he has tended to act pretty carefully postflop. I've seen him attempt to x/c or x/r rather than lead out the river with strong hands a couple times. One was when he held KT on a board of 8T5KT against a guy who had bet strongly on the flop and turn. The other was against me when he x/r a flop of A T 8, x/c a 5 turn and then the 2 river went check, check (I had T8, he had AT). He starts with $600.

Hero's preflop game in full ring was 25/20. I recently stacked a tourist with AA after 3betting OTB pre. In 3 handed play I've been raising more often than the other guys but have been folding pre quite a bit more often. I start with $650.

On to the hand:

Villain calls straddle from SB. Hero raises A A to $15 from BB. BTN calls, SB calls. $41 in pot after drop.

Flop 9 8 6. V bets $10, hero calls, BTN folds. $61 in pot.

How many would prefer a raise on this flop? I didn't love the idea because I don't have a great plan against his 3bets. I think his b/3b range can include both strong draws and 2pr+ hands, and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he would be making a small donk lead to induce raises and then make a big 3b. I also like the idea of controlling the pot size and keeping my range somewhat wide for future streets; I think he thinks I can raise pre and then call his flop bet with hands like QJ, A7, etc.

Turn 9 8 6 T. V bets $25, hero calls. $111 in pot.

River 9 8 6 T 4. V checks. Hero ???

At this point, I see a couple problems with betting the river for value. One is that I can picture him deciding to x/c two pair hands either to bluff catch against my whiffed flush draws or because he's now concerned about sets in my range (i.e. TTT). The other is that if he thinks about it, this is a pretty good spot for a x/r bluff. Seems like he's much more likely to have a 7x when he takes this line and then x/r the river (lots of 97/87/76, etc), while I can't have that much 7x in my own range when I flat the turn. Am I giving this V way too much credit to assume he could consider ranges and come up with a x/r bluff here against my value bets, or is that a legit concern?

Is that the normal pre-flop raise from BB with a straddle and a caller? Seems a bit small, but I realize it's table-dependent.

I think you played it fine. That's a terrible board for AA, and against described player on that board, I'm kind of happy to get to showdown so cheaply. (Basically, I doubt he would call a river bet with worse, and you can't stand a raise.)

I might have raised flop because it's such a weak bet, but I would hate to be re-raised.

no. it is not a legit concern. IMO you are way overthinking this river after you call the turn.

when V bets the turn he either has.....

-two pair
-a seven
-a bluff, or some kind of semi-bluff that cannot beat AA

but your image is not laggy. so if you bet the river, he is only calling you with hands that beat you.

Yeah, I was making it $16 for a little bit but that was starting to fold them out. They've been varying their raise sizes from $7-$13.

That's amazing. Most of the 1/2 games I play, you can't get in on a non-straddle pot for less than $12, and it's often $15 - $20! (Even short.)

I think you're probably overestimating the likelihood of him 3-betting the flop with less than 2-pair. He's raising pre-flop with hands like JTdd, QTdd, KTdd, ATdd, and A7dd right? In my experience, that $10 donk bet is likely an attempt to set the price with 1 pair and/or a 4-9 out draw, and represents legitimate weakness way more often than an attempt to induce. I would raise to $55 or so and fold to a 3-bet.

You'll leave yourself in a good position on the turn IMO. Depending on what falls, you'll usually be able to either value bet again and check behind lots of rivers, or check behind and bluff catch the river.

As played, what hands would you be targeting with a river value bet? JT, QT, and 9x? Anything else? For bet/fold to be good, you'd need to come up with a sizing that is both small enough to get called by skeptical 9x and big enough to deter a bluff raise... Maybe $60 or so? Feels really villain and recent history dependent. Has he seen you bluff much?

Such an easy check on this board...

You listed the hands I'm targeting. Pair + FD (ie 9xdd other than T9dd), JT, QT. And not even that sure that he x/c rather than blocking bets with Tx, so it is a pretty tight range that I'm going after.

He has seen me semi bluff and 3barrel. On the 3barrel I was in position HU with 6 high, the runout was 982hhc 4d Qc and he x/c river with QJhh.

And yeah, sizing is a little tricky too. I would want to bet something like $45 to give him just worse than 4:1 to call with a worse pair on this board, but that and my line can strongly signal that I'm b/f pretty much the exact hand I have (although again, I'm probably giving a lot of credit for him to be on that level of thinking AND actually try a move like that against me for a big river bet).

Aside from overpairs I think he thinks I get here with FDs and TTT. The one thing that's really attractive about a value bet here is that he'll be tempted to put me on FDs when he holds 9x.

One other somewhat relevant note: I've seen him x/f two pair on a scary board to another player when we were 5handed. He raised, the other player 3b, he called w AT. Flop AJQhhc. He leads, other player flats. Turn Ts. He bets, other player calls. River 4c. He checks, other player shoves (which overbets pot for say 1.1x), he tanks and folds the AT face up. Other player claims AK. He says sizing was a factor and he would have called for a smaller amount; also said he wasn't sure if he could fold AQ in the same spot.

I would raise the flop big limiting Vs propensity to bluff raise. If he does raise, then I would fold knowing I'm behind. Seems like a spot where raise-folding is appropriate. Also allows you to take control of the pot.

As played, I would check the river. The board is way too wet and any and all draws got there.

Problem with raise/fold is that we fold the best hand when he makes a 3b with any pair + FD or pair + OESD. He can hold a lot of these hands and be pretty happy about his equity against overpairs. Q9dd has 14 outs, T9dd has 17 outs, 97dd has 20 outs, etc. Good news is that he has less equity than he thinks with NFDs, but even then he'll have 11 outs with A9dd and that makes us barely a favorite to the river.

If he mixes in 2pr+ (which includes T7, 98, 66, 86, ie a lot of his limp/call range) with his strong draws for b/3b then we get put in a tough spot. If he has strong draws/better made hands at a 3:1 ratio then it can work really well as a semi bluff.

As others have stated, you're absolutely over thinking this. Against this opponent, just check.

Check behind on the river. I do think it's too thin to bet for value.

good post.

i agree with checking the river.

Few other hands that factor into the dynamic a bit:
a) Against aggro fish 1 he x/c a rivered flush and got the fish to spazz shove MPNK (he had KJcc, fish had 85o, board Js8c4cTh2c); he checked the river and tried to act as though he was very scared of the flush and the fish reacted by shoving pretty quickly.
b) Against aggro fish 2 he l/rr AQo UTG and then x/c three streets to stack off on A82r Ax 3x (fish had AT).
c) I noticed this slow play and checked back a river against him HU in position when a possible OESD hit after I had bet 2/3 pot on flop and turn. He mucked and said he had MPNK.

Since I've checked behind with decent hands a couple of times he might realize that I know he likes to slow play and therefore may be less likely to check 7x on this river. But who knows. Old habits don't go away easily.

I'd raise flop since there isn't any history of him running bluffs. As played think check behind on the river seems best since he seems to be a bit of a showdown monkey on turns and rivers so I think he still has all 2 pair hands in his range.

Results:

Hero does check back. Villain shows J 9.

He says he would call a reasonable bet OTR with that hand and I tend to believe him. But I need his x/c with losing hands range to be significantly bigger than his range of x/c winners + x/r winners + x/r bluffs, and still don't think that's necessarily the case.

For those who say the x/r bluff isn't anything to be concerned about, if he does it even 2% of the time it dramatically alters the math of the value bet. Normally we would say that for a river value bet to be effective we simply need his x/c losers > x/c winners.

EV = 0.5 (45) - 0.45 (45)
EV = 22.5 - 20.25
EV = + 2.25

If we throw in 5% x/r bluffs, we end up with this:

EV = x/c winners + x/c losers + x/r bluffs
EV = 0.5 (45) - 0.45 (45) - .05(156)
EV = 22.5 - 20.25 - 7.80
EV = -5.55

Because we lose not just the bet but the entire pot that went to the river, I think we need to be at least a little concerned about the x/r bluff in a spot that will appear to be for obvious thin value. Since I flatted the turn and had been betting aggressively for value for most of the night it should be pretty obvious to villain that a river bet from me is either a medium value hand or a missed draw; it can't ever really be the nuts.

Would he ever be capable of bluffing here? He's braver than me if so.

I'd check back also, too thin for me.

I'd like to present a second example in which the thread title would apply. This hand also took place at Harrah's, although in this instance it's 9pm, 9 people at the table, most of them middle aged men who play loose passive.

Villain in this hand just sat down an orbit ago. White guy, mid 50s, button down shirt. Does not look very experienced (asked questions about posting blinds, has his chips stacked in $40 and $50 increments, etc). In a previous hand with hero he limped in early position, I raise to $12, get a couple callers and he folds pre. He starts this hand with $250, I cover.

Hero is a white guy in mid late 20s wearing a red track jacket. Start with $400.

Villain limps in EP, hero raises K T to $12 in MP, BTN calls, BB calls, villain calls. $45 in pot after drop.

Flop: T 7 3. BB checks, villain bets $20, hero calls, BTN folds, BB folds. $85 in pot.

I see this donk bet as usually indicating Tx and 7x hands. With such a dry flop I don't mind flatting and letting him fire again.

Turn: T 7 3 4. V bets $40, hero calls. $165 in pot.

River: T 7 3 4 9. V checks. Hero ???

I figure I value own myself when he x/c AT and two pair hands. Not impossible for him to check two pair if he gets MUBSY about betting when a straight possibility appears. I can get value from T8/JT/QT/87/76/75. Is this enough of a reason to value bet, or should I just take the free showdown?

Check. If you bet here you are bluffing, trying to get small 2 pair hands to fold.

$65-70 OTR in hand 2 imo.

300 BB deep I don't know if V is willing to 3-bet otf with a big draw. It's too deep to 3-bet and commit himself, if his 3-bet gets called and he misses ott, now he's just bloated a pot oop and he has less than optimal equity ott to continue. It's also the high variance route, I'm usually < 150BB deep or less when I'm willing to get ai with a draw of 50-55%. So I don't mind a r/f otf.

It's not as if we have KQ on a KK2 flop and we're raising a flop donk from a guy who limp/called pre so he likely has 22 and if we raise we're just giving him the chance to shove when we could have seen a cheap turn and if the Q hit ott we're getting stacks in miles ahead. There, trip Ks is too strong to r/f. In this post, I don't mind r/f an overpair. (This was a hand from a 5/T LATB hand from last Tuesday)

AP I'd check behind otr though. He could be planning a c/r with 7x or a c/c with a lot of 2-pair combos.

Bart Hanson has a pretty good discussion of thin value here:

http://podbay.fm/show/303710848/e/13...60?autostart=1

He considers not betting for thin value enough one of the 4 biggest leaks of cash game players.

Hand 2 results:

Hero bets $65, V calls and shows red AA.

Seemed a little bizarre. Still think his range to Donk flop, lead turn and check river had a lot of worse Tx/7x.

Just for fun, here's a third installment of "Is it Fat Enough?"

Wednesday night at Harrah's. Couple grinders at the table getting hours toward the freeroll, otherwise fish. Table is eight handed.

Villain in this hand is a white guy in his 30s. VPIP/PFR 60/10. In his only pot with hero I raised pre, he called. Flop T 7 5. He checks, hero bets 2/3 pot, he calls. Turn 4. He bets 1/2 pot, hero folds, he shows 88. Not sure if he's aware that he executed the Johnny Chan play, but found it interesting. He starts with $500.

Hero is a white guy in his late 20s. VPIP/PFR 20/15. Haven't shown down any big hands yet tonight. I start with $400.

One limp, hero raises to $12 in MP with Q Q, villain calls in SB, limper calls. $34 in pot after drop.

Flop A 8 3. Checks around.

Turn A 8 3 7. Villain bets $15, limper folds, hero calls. $64 in pot after drop.

River A 8 3 7 5. Villain checks. Hero ???

Given V's line, the type of hands I'm looking to get value from include JJ/TT/99/98/T8, probably a few other 8x combos as well. Do we see his x/c range including enough stuff like this compared to Ax? How often do we think he x/c (or x/r attempt) with random two pairs? Let me know what you think.