This is a hand that I played last week at 1/2.
Villain is middle-aged, overweight white guy. Hero is 30-something white guy, just sat with $288 of mostly red chips in a rack. Hero limped one hand UTG (with small pocket pair) and folded flop so far; this info is given for image and limping earlier is not the point of the hand.

Villain limps from UTG, HJ limps
Hero in CO ($288) raises to $15 with KQ
Uber fish with $125 in BB calls
Villain calls, HJ folds

Flop ($43 after rake and drop): K92
Checked to Hero who bets $24
BB folds, Villain calls

Turn ($89): 7
Villain checks, Hero bets $37, Villain calls

River ($163): 6
Villain checks

I don't think Villain knows the size of the pot or understands the exploitability of folding most of his turn calling range to small river bets. So I suspect that betting half pot would be seen as super strong and I think I would fold out almost everything worse.
I have the best hand >90% of the time and I really want to squeeze more value out of him.

Ideally, I'd like to get called by any single-paired King, any 9, maybe any diamond draw that ran into a 6 or 7, maybe A-high if I he's the suspicious type.
How should Hero decide on bet size here to maximize EV?

Since we dont have any real reads on V I am just betting a standard 55 and praying to get called. We are almost always good here.

you say u have the best hand >90% here.

so what range you think will have your villain here?
and which hands would call another barrel otr in this spot?

I would have rather gone with larger bets on Flop and Turn to go for 2 streets of larger value. Two draws (even tho one is insided) on flop makes me want to bet $35 and follow up with a half-pot bet on turn.
Instead, You went 2 streets of smallish value (which is okish), so continue with that plan and bet 50-70.

Also include stack size of V

$34 OTF
3/4 pot OTT
OTR find the bet that will show the most profit over the long term, ldo.

I agree you have the best hand almost always.

I think your bet sizing is too small throughout the hand.

Flop I'd go at least $30.

Turn is really small - he's not folding KT-KJ to a bet of $65 (and there's also plenty of value from draws).

As played on the river, I'd make it at least $100.

I don't think it makes sense to size your bet to get value from randomly paired diamonds with a 6 or 7, or A-high. You're seeking to maximize value against worse top pair hands, which comprise a ton of his range. But if you want to determine the precise EV of certain value bets, take V's range, determine what % of which hands he has, decide what % he calls each bet, and calculate your EV. I think you'll find you're much better off crafting sizing that targets Kx hands than A-high hands.

Preflop: The raise is too large. For the most part I'm all for sizing my preflop value-raises as large as my opponents are willing to call, but if I've just sat down at the table I won't have enough info to raise more than standard. This is especially true with KQo because it's at the bottom of the value raising range. Furthermore, with short stacked fish likely to call the raise you can still stack them with top pair after a $12 raise, with the added benefit that when you whiff the flop and your c-bet gets called you'll have saved yourself 8 bucks or so. Also, if "uber fish" is spazzy with his chips (as opposed to loose/passive) keeping the pot small early with an overlimp is better than raising.

Flop: As played preflop, bet larger. You got the flop you want and the player most likely to pay you off has a fairly short stack. Time to build the pot. Bet $40 and insta-call if the BB comes over the top. Against better players you can't be this transparent, but against "uber fish" throw range balancing out the window and just take the money.

I can't give any more feedback on this hand because you didn't include the fat guy's stack size in OP.

Just my opinion...

Bet more ott.

River is a good spot for 1/2 pot value bet.

Grunching:

Pre - good. Sizing depends on table dynamics, but $12 often would be enough.

Flop - terrible sizing. Bet at least 3/4 pot here. You need to charge the draws and this will often be the only street you will get a call.

Turn - Bet more, maybe 2/3 pot. Charge the draw and possibly get paid from a worse made hand. Get ready to fold if middle aged white guy leads the river heavily. (No reason to thing he is an aggressive type - otherwise I would check turn and call river.)

River - CHECK BEHIND as played. You are almost never getting called by worse unless V is a spewtard. (No reason to think this yet.) Your 90% is incorrect unless V is a calling station, and you don't know that yet.

Without reads on villain, you should play this hand ABC. You can't bet thin value here unless you are playing a venue with TONS of tourists.

Villain had my $288 covered, he had $350 or so. Sorry that I forgot to mention that.

I guess I'd put him on this range on the river:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

115 trials (Exhaustive)

board: K9276

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
KcQd	86.96%	99	2
KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT, K*s, Ad*d, Qd*d, A9, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, 97s, 96s, Td8d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d	13.04%	14	2

Maybe this is wishful thinking (?), like maybe he wouldn't limp call any suited Q or A9o, but I'm not sure. Also, he should fold T8 (which makes the nuts) other than T8dd on flop. If he limp-called K9 or a PP and slow-played a set, I can't imagine that he would let me bet that small on turn and also check river planning to check raise.
I don't know how to calculate the fraction of that range that calls a third barrel, but it definitely depends on sizing.

Villain had me covered. I forgot to mention it.

I like this idea of two large streets as his range should have a lot of flush draws in it that will call big two streets. A large turn bet probably folds out all 9s except for 9x of diamonds.
However, with the small flop sizing I was really trying to keep the uber fish in the bb in the hand. I'd already seen him pay off twice, muck and buy back in.

Also, as someone else mentioned, the 32 combos of KJ and KT make up a really large part of his range and I might as well go for a large 3rd barrel if the flush draw misses.

I like the PFR size, good for getting value vs a passive fish. so far, all indicators point to this player being loose passive. I would just under pot the flop, 2/3 the turn, and 1/2-2/3 the river. You are trying to get called by a K here. If you have any reason from your history with the player that he will fold to a 1/2-2/3 size bet here, then go more 1/3. but from what you have described I don't think he is folding a K. If he has any clue what is going on then go ahead and make it like 1/3-1/2, but I think you can get a ton of value still here

If I already bet two large streets, I can see checking river behind b/c his calling range is probably ahead of KQ. But as played with my small turn sizing, I am giving up a ton of value by not value betting.

This isn't thin is it? Bet more otf and ott. 35, 60, then a 65 river bet or something. Really don't like turn, there are straight and flush draws

In villain's river checking range I put 115 combos, basically all pairs, diamond draws and gutters. I forgot to include the four KQ combos that chop so there are actually 119. My equity is 86% vs that range.

If I bet half pot ($81 or $82), I really think he folds everything that I beat except for KJ and maybe KT. That sizing looks super strong to a standard 1/2 villain who isn't keeping track of pot size. (To some it might also look super polarized b/c the flush draw missed and most 1/2 players will check back everything but T8, 85, KK and 99. So I guess it's possible that he realizes he has a bluffcatcher and calls?)
Of his river checking range, I can see betting $81 and getting called by: KQ, KJ most of the time, maybe KT half the time, K7s, K6s, K2s, 7d6d. That's 24 of 119 combos that call $81 (I beat 12, lose to 6, chop with 6).
EV= (81*12-81*6+ 0*6)/119 = $4.08

There are 67 combos in his range that have at least one pair on the river (48 that I beat, 13 I lose to, 6 that I chop with). I suspect that he would call a smaller bet with any pair, maybe something suspicious like saying "same bet" and betting $37 again.
EV= (37*48 - 37*13 - 0*6)/119 = $10.88

Less than $37 looks so strange that it may actually be clear to him that he has a pure bluffcatcher and he might call with any pair and maybe busted Ax of diamonds (another ~10 combos). Including those unpaired Adxd hands there are 75 combos. Say I bet $35:
EV=(35*56-35*13-0*6)/119 = $12.65

$100 is a massive bet for 1/2, especially when it is almost 3x the turn bet. This betting pattern is basically always a monster at 1/2. I am nearly certain this guy had no idea of the pot size OTR; when most villains see that sizing they are not thinking 60% pot, they are thinking $100. As played, all a $100 bet will do is turn my hand into a bluff and fold out chops and maybe 7d6d and K2s, K7s, K6s.

I haven't played a ton of 1/2 live but based on what I've seen and heard at the table from standard villains, betting $100 OTR is almost never getting called by worse.

Results:
This will probably get me flamed as it's super non-standard, but I bet $21 OTR. Villain sighed, rolled his eyes, shrugged, said "I think I'm beat." and threw in a call. He mucked when I showed KQ. Based on his body language, I think he had a 9.

After doing the calculations above, as played, I think the ideal river sizing was $31-36. IMO, this bizarre sizing that is less than turn can potentially make villain realize that he actually has a bluffcatcher and start thinking about hand equivalency and how much money is in the pot.

PS - Don't say "It's 1/2, play the river ABC." Just because ABC is +EV doesn't mean it's the most +EV.

I'm in the camp with willyoman.

So many people bet this river relatively small with their thin value hands. Something I've come to realize in LLNL is that worse players tend to hero BIGGER bets on bet/bet/bet lines on wet boards than they do valueish bets. He might not know the word 'polarized' but that's what your line looks like. With your sizing, this is a great spot to make your hand look like you triple barreled diamonds. Bet 100-125 on the river. You can get called by tons of worse crap.

edit: results posted while I was posting...
post result discussion:

Your bet sizing on the river will get called just about 100% of the time by any pair. However if you bet 110 and it is called by worse 25% of the time (which is a wildly low estimate), you are making more money than betting $21 and having it called 100% of the time.

Very interesting. I haven't seen evidence of this in my maybe 100 hours of casino LSLNL play, but I'm sure this applies to some villains.

I would like to hear what other experienced players think of this. How common is this type of thinking among LSLNL opponents?

These kinds of moves have to be against correct villains and you have to have the right table image. When the stars align (and they align often), you can make a ton of money by making big thin value bets on certain lines.

From the mindset of a fish:

I'm going to play K10o because its two broadways and I like my broadways.

Yes, I flopped top pair!

Theres a flush draw on that board but he's still betting. Maybe he's betting the flush draw, maybe he has AK or AA since he raised preflop. He definitely doesn't have a set because if he had a set he would check to trap me. I've got top pair though. I call.

Turn... Well, now he bet again on the turn. But his bet wasn't that big so theres a good chances he's trying to bluff with the flush draw. If I were first to act there, I would bet big to protect my hand.

River... Wow, he bet 100. If I were in his shoes and I had just a king here, I would check. I've seen my top pairs get beaten and I wouldn't want to have to call a big raise. So, he probably doesn't have a king. Maybe he has aces? He would probably check his aces too. That big bet could be a bluff because the diamonds missed. From what I've seen on TV, when people bet big, they are trying to scare other people off the hand. When they bet small its because they want a call.

_________________________

Or you can always just go by the numbers. A bet of X is likely to get called Y%.
Multiply, figure out EV, and take the best line. The better a player you are, the closer you will get to the true values of X and Y.

I will look for opportunities to do this. This seems like it might have been an ideal opportunity to try it.

However, if it were really true that one could "often" squeeze $180 out of an opponent with a pfr/bet/bet/bomb line with TP2K then there would have to be 1/2 live pros making $80+ (probably $100+) per hour.

Thanks SunChips and everyone else for your thoughtful posts in this thread.