Villain - ($250) 60's old man. Maybe eastern european. I've only see a few orbits, but he definitely seems tight. I don't know how weak/tight he is because it's only a few orbits. I seem to remember him calling something like 3 streets, then insta-mucking to 2 pair, but I can't remember if that was before or after this hand.
Hero - ($300) Playing TAG, but looser and aggro from LP b/c of many deep, horrible stacks. I don't think villain picks up on this since he's only been there a few orbits.
folds to hero
Hero (HJ) 8
9
raises to $8
Button calls $8
SB calls $8
Villain (BB) reraises to $15
Hero calls
Button folds
SB calls
Pot ~53
Flop: J
T
T
SB checks, Villain checks, Hero?
I think the min 3b from an old man is extreme strength. I really think he has QQ+ in his range. I don't even know if old men 3b AK here. It's bizarre that he's not betting, but I have a decent draw and I think a lot of the time he's c/c here. Is there any merit to betting this?
Hero actually checks.
Pot~53
Turn: J
T
T
7
SB checks, Villain bets $15, Hero raises ?$
Best possible card for me. Unless he flopped a boat i have him crushed. Unfortunately if he has AA he has to fear I have trip 10's, so I don't want to blow him off the hand. I think the 1/3 pot bet is something like a scared AA or KK that I don't think calls huge raises. I think I can win a decent pot if I make a raise and a bet he can call.
If Villain comes over the top, he reps really JJ or TT only IMO. I don't see him taking this line with AA. Could I still fold this OTT if he raised?
Hero raises to $45, Villain tanks for a little while, then kind of sigh calls.
Pot~140
River: J
T
T
7
7
Villain checks, Hero bets ?$
I think I'm good like 100% here. I think he's got QQ+ here almost always. The 7 shouldn't change anything, but to an old man a double paired board like this has to look somewhat scary. He looked like he didn't want to call the turn and his tank/call tells me I probably can't get a huge river bet. I really want a call, so I decide to bet an amount I think AA calls almost always. What kind of sizing do you like here?
Hero bets $65.
I don't know if I missed value OTR. I probably did. Table was nitty and not getting river value was annoying me. Thoughts on the hand?