1/2, full ring, friday night
Hero: 550$, white, mid 20s, reg, been at the table for bout 5 hours but neither V has been at table for more than 45 min. I have shown one medium strength two-pair hand on a super wet flop that had two shorties all in on flop for 70$, then bricks, i scoop.
V1: 200$, early 40s, white, clean-cut, seems like an ok player, seems comfortable at the table. I saw him fold in the SB to 3 limpers. only thing i remember about this guy. was not at the table when i had the two-pair hand.
V2: 600$, mid 20s, white, hoodie, hat, very jittery ALL the time at the table, even when he isnt in a hand. I know he is a reg also, switching between 1/2 and 2/5. I will call him an average player, even though i have had people tell me he was a fish, because i know he has been around this casino for a while (years) and maybe he is just a break-even player. I have seen him 3 bet large in late position once, and also open large once in late position after many limpers, both times taking it down without a flop.

The hand:
EP limps, V1 limps, V2 makes in 13 from either the button or cutoff.
SB folds, i look at Q10.
Are we fine with calling here this deep?
EP folds and V1 calls.
The flop: QJ9 (42$)
Hero leads for 25$. V1 calls, V2 makes it 125$ all day.

I can make an argument here for all 3 options i feel....but i will save my reasons for once i get some feedback.

I really dont think V1 will be calling here.

If i give V2 any set i am a 55/45 dog while getting $217/$100...so the odds are there for this hand to call.
If i give V2 K10x, he wins 56%, we chop 10% of the time and i win 33% of the time. how should i figure this into my decision? If i only consider winning, im still getting the right odds, right?
If i give V2 AK i am actually ahead as a 58/42 favorite...so again this is a call. FWIW i dont think V would raise here with the bare Ace FD...so i weigh this as happening a small percentage of the time.

If i just call, do I want V1 to call? he may have a bigger flush draw. or some garbage like 10-8. Either way, i dont think he is calling.

If i just call and V1 folds, then i bink a on the turn, doesnt this scare the SH*T outta V2, and he might be folding to any bet...killing my action?

If i just call, bink heart (that doesnt make a 4-card straight), then jam, how often do we think V2 will call with a set?

I cant decide what i like here...HELLLPP!

You don't really say much about V2's playing style, if he's tight/loose, passive/aggressive etc etc.

Anyways, I stoved it.

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 50.22% 48.03% 4.390% {JJ+, 99, AQs, KTs, QJs, T8s, KTo, QJo}
Player 2: 49.78% 47.58% 4.390% [QhTh]

Board: [Qc Jh 9h ? ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 10492395 trials


As you can see, I have given him only made/value hands and your still flipping. I don't think he iso's 108 pre very often so I would discount that a lot (I only included suited). I did include AA and KK which may change a lot cause from my experience people are bad enough to raise those hands in this spot.

I don't think you can flat as there will be like $300 in the pot and he's probably just going to shoved a lot and even if he bets like $200 you can't call turn and will be burning flop call a lot. Plus if he's a reg (fish or not) I doubt he will pay you often too much if you get there unless he specifically has a heart with a big pair or has AQ hearts. You have more than enough equity against a very strong range so I would shove. You can get AA or KK to fold a decent amount if he's raise/folding.

Shove that ****!

... shove is by far the best play.

I'd only consider flatting if I thought villain was on air or some kind of draw. If villain is hyper-aggressive and willing to bet the turn with a wide range, then I guess we can flat. But I think shipping is gonna be the correct play against most players.

You want him to shove 450 into 250? we want to get it all in, but not with only the parts of his range that have us crushed.

If v is really as jittery and spazzy as you say, go ahead and click it back and see what he does.

he is going to shove over a much weaker range than he will call a shove with.

some random thoughts -- if v1 is going to play for the 125, hes playing for his whole stack. It doesnt make any difference whether you raise or flat, since the 125 call is essentially an all in for him. Its not like hes going to be ready to get it all in and then your reraise is going to make him see jesus and hes going to muck his hand.

If v2 is raising air as a pure steal, then clicking it back has the added benefit of getting him to ship at least sometimes with the same air, thinking that the hand is still stealable and that your small raise indicates that you are not prepared to play for stacks.

If v2 has no heart in his hand, you dont have to worry as much about a heart ott killing your action, even if V just decides to flat the minraise. At that point, the pot will be $550 or so and effective stacks will be 300. Which means that youll be putting in about .5psb if you shove turn (or even less if you decide to split it between the turn and river)

flatting is pretty terrible all around.

Flatting pre this deep is fine as long as he's not great post flop which seems to be the case.

Shove. Utilizing your FE and your equity in the pot will make this the most profitable play. Calling and whiffing the turn will likely result in V shoving some made hands he may have folded to a flop shove. Min raising also decreases your FE while committing you to the pot regardless.

What are you trying to fold out with a shove here? Before you say "a set" keep in mind that I fully intend to ridicule you for thinking you can fold a 1/2 jitterfish off a set when you do. Basically youre shoving to fold out the weakest part of his range (which we have about crushed anyway) and get in stacks with the strongest part of his range, where we're basically flipping, usually at a slight disadvantage. That seems somehow counter-productive. We are already ahead of the part of his range where our fold equity is significant.

As a matter of fact, I played around on stove for a while, and I couldn't find a single hand that we are folding with a shove like, ever, that we aren't already a favorite over.

IMO we should be ready to get stacks in with this hand. If he has something like AQ and decides to flat our minriase then shove a blank flop, we're drawing plenty good to get it in, even with only one card to come.

Also, im not that worried about him flatting. Usually theyre going to spaz and get in their stacks anyway after you minraise.

Ship it in. You have tons of equity vs everything, but anything you hit is going to be a big scare card. You're OOP, and you have some FE. I'd take it.

I wasn't advocating trying to fold out sets here against a "jitterfish". I guess I need to rephrase. Rather than trying to fold out hands we're behind (sets) which are always calling a shove, we should rather maximize our equity against the larger part of his range ie AA KK AQ.

I don't have stove accessible since i'm traveling but what happens to our equity if we min raise and are called and the turn bricks? I'd rather maximize our FE and pot equity otf when its strongest, rather than ott when we have zero FE and our pot equity is greatly diminished.

Also agree that we may lose value if a scare card hits and V decides to not pay us off

Preflop is rather thin, I wouldn't make this call unless I thought V2 was very likely to be squeezing here and even then not always. QTs is ahead of a squeeze heavy range for V2 but plays badly OOP.

As the flop comes, ship it. Your ahead of everything right now, but not way ahead of most raising hands on the flop. If you miss the turn your equity will drop in most situations. Get your money in while you are ahead and you have some FE. As a side benefit, with this sort of action your will have trouble getting the money in if the flush does hit unless V2 was betting a better flush draw.

the problem is your equity assumes you see both the turn and river. shoving is the best way to achieve this.

that and we don't want hands like AA to call a minraise and then play perfectly on the turn (call a blank, fold if we hit because it's gonna be a scare card whenever we hit anything)

make them fold or get it in as a favorite OOP

Shipping it in has to be optimal. You get FE against all but QJ+, which if plan backfires you have a ton of outs. Massive FE, his raise is a defense raise deep a good % of the time, he will raise/fold KK-AA, AQ this deep since he's been around the block.

Any chance he has AKhh here?

Why do you guys want your fold equity to work?

Because our hand equity is usually cut in half ott and we are deep and oop. Our line is so strong that 2p may not want to even stack for 260bb

pre is a leak.

so it looks like i chose the least liked path...called the 100$ more OTF. Then as unexpected, V1 flats, leaving himself ~60$ behind.
I wanted to flat here because i felt pretty good at the table, and if i miss the turn, i THINK I am fine check/folding to his jam and leaving myself with 350$. The table was pretty passive, so i thought i would rather keep from reloading.
Turn was 3, i take bout 10 seconds to get it in, V1 relctantly calls, v2 tanks and complains about this and that...folds...I ask if he had JJ...he says better...
I scratch my head and say wtf, ok!
River pairs the baord with a 9 and i am not too happy.
V1 turns over K8...YIKKKEEESS!!!

If i jam flop, cant we picture V1 calling? if he called 100$ more, wouldnt he call 165$ more? OR do you think it becomes a mental game of "what if he has my K high flush draw smashed with Ace high flush draw?" how often do yo u think he would have this go through his mind?

Even though we expect the pot to be at least 3-ways? HU is obviously a leak, but MW...

yes. unless you're getting paid absurdly when you flop big.

Shove flop, I fold pre here normally due to the RIO of your hand.

Don't get caught up in what V1 has, what matters is what V2 has.

Yeah I fold pre as well.

X2

why? i feel like this deep we can see a flop...this V could be opening ATC from the button...right?
Dont get me wrong, if im at an average stack, im folding this...

Why would you think villain is 100% pfr?

All you are doing is building a bigger pot to play an easily dominated hand OOP. Just because you are deep doesn't make it profitable... it just means you have more money to lose thanks to the RIO, even in situations like this where you CRUSH the flop - you can see there are a lot of hands that you are either beat by or flipping with, and that's when you CRUSH and hit everything OTF. And its still a pot equity of like 50%-65% at best. Ish. Better flushes, better queens, over pairs, sets. You flat & the turn bricks, now you are ****ed and you lost ~$150 on QT in the BB.

AS PLAYED, I can't see myself not shoving the flop. I agree with everyone who wants to get the money in NOW when your equity is at least around %50 against entire range. A brick OTT is murder, and I don't want to get it in at that point... rather do it now. I know the stack sizes are weird and a shove seems way too big, I get that, but the only raise you can really make is a shove. You are committed. Flatting I don't like partly because it gives shortstack a great price, but mostly because if the turn blanks it's brutal.