1/2, full ring, friday night
Hero: 550$, white, mid 20s, reg, been at the table for bout 5 hours but neither V has been at table for more than 45 min. I have shown one medium strength two-pair hand on a super wet flop that had two shorties all in on flop for 70$, then bricks, i scoop.
V1: 200$, early 40s, white, clean-cut, seems like an ok player, seems comfortable at the table. I saw him fold in the SB to 3 limpers. only thing i remember about this guy. was not at the table when i had the two-pair hand.
V2: 600$, mid 20s, white, hoodie, hat, very jittery ALL the time at the table, even when he isnt in a hand. I know he is a reg also, switching between 1/2 and 2/5. I will call him an average player, even though i have had people tell me he was a fish, because i know he has been around this casino for a while (years) and maybe he is just a break-even player. I have seen him 3 bet large in late position once, and also open large once in late position after many limpers, both times taking it down without a flop.
The hand:
EP limps, V1 limps, V2 makes in 13 from either the button or cutoff.
SB folds, i look at Q
10
.
Are we fine with calling here this deep?
EP folds and V1 calls.
The flop: Q
J
9
(42$)
Hero leads for 25$. V1 calls, V2 makes it 125$ all day.
I can make an argument here for all 3 options i feel....but i will save my reasons for once i get some feedback.
I really dont think V1 will be calling here.
If i give V2 any set i am a 55/45 dog while getting $217/$100...so the odds are there for this hand to call.
If i give V2 K
10x, he wins 56%, we chop 10% of the time and i win 33% of the time. how should i figure this into my decision? If i only consider winning, im still getting the right odds, right?
If i give V2 A
K
i am actually ahead as a 58/42 favorite...so again this is a call. FWIW i dont think V would raise here with the bare Ace FD...so i weigh this as happening a small percentage of the time.
If i just call, do I want V1 to call? he may have a bigger flush draw. or some garbage like 10-8. Either way, i dont think he is calling.
If i just call and V1 folds, then i bink a
on the turn, doesnt this scare the SH*T outta V2, and he might be folding to any bet...killing my action?
If i just call, bink heart (that doesnt make a 4-card straight), then jam, how often do we think V2 will call with a set?
I cant decide what i like here...HELLLPP!