Hero (CO): late 20s Asian guy, TAG image (covers)
Villain (UTG): old white guy, super nitty ($300)

In the two hours or so I've been at the table, this was the only hand I've seen villain raise. Villain has limped occasionally otherwise.

Villain opens $10 UTG. Hero calls with 66 in the CO. SB calls.

Flop: A63 ($29)

Villain bets $20. Hero calls. SB folds.

Turn: 9 ($67)

Villain bets $35. Hero calls.

River: Q ($137)

Villain bets $75. Hero ???

I highly doubt villain even raises AQ pre as nitty as that sounds. Assuming villain raises AK 100% of the time and doesn't slow play, there's 12 AK combos and only 3 AA combos. But I don't think he goes for thin value with AK cause nits don't go for thin value. They get scared of stupid unlikely things such as me having a set or two pair. Also the river is bad for specifically AK because AQ beats it and it's a hand almost everyone calls two streets with even against a super nit. Most importantly, I don't think he's calling a shove or even a small raise with AK. Anyone nit calling here?

I guess hitting a set vs a nit on an ace high flop significantly diminishes the value of the set as opposed to say a ten high flop where my raise can be a lower overpair, an overplayed ten or some kind of draw.

ship it or call if you're 100% certain of your read. i play with nitty old guys all the time and would have put in a raise at some point in this hand.

I would have raised $75 on the flop then if he calls I would ship it


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If hesitant about shipping river, call. I'd raise turn for value when a BDFD appears, which will balance the sets/2 pr.

Raise turn and don't fold if he shoves.

As played I jam the river for value. This is going to be AK often and also AQs (yes - nits will raise pre with AQs). IMO you are overthinking his line and being MUBSY. We have a set in a raised pot vs a tight player on an Ace high board. We need to get value!

Call and NH
Given nit’s line this is Classic WA-WB. He is giving us about as much value as we could get.

Given 2/3 pot and 1/2 pot bets by the V, it really looks like AK or AQ. A nit usually checks an A-high flop with a hand like KK or QQ. If V has QQ, he's almost certainly checking the turn once called on an A-high flop. If he had AA, you would expect him to bet more on the turn to set up a reasonable river shove. If he pots it on the turn, the pot would be about $200 and V has about that much behind.

You have to ask yourself, what is the odds of V calling with AK/AQ, and does it exceed the odds of V playing AA this exact way? If he's super nitty, then calling isn't terrible. But in most cases I shove and hope V calls with AQ. If he does fold, then you can at least keep your hand a mystery.....V won't know if he was bluffed or if you were raising for value.

That said, I would raise the flop to $70. V isn't folding AK or AQ to this raise. If he does, then you can just bluff him to oblivion. Then you can check the turn and likely get another street of value on the river. That's probably the best way to get max value from a nit in this situation.

This. People who say raise turn or river and it's a cooler when he has AA don't understand super nits.

Plus 1

Lol at thinking AQ is in a super nits raise range. Supernit I'd also discount AK quite heavily as super nit will limp with that frequently. I'm calling, but I'm far from loving it. River is way closer to fold than raise.

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He kinda looked like that. I don't think he raises even AKo pre. Maybe AKs if he's drunk.

Ok I missed the part about "super" nit and now with that image in mind I'd like to take my back prior advice. New advice..

Fold pre.

Results?

I mean if you're so confident in your read that after r/b/b/b he always has AA and never AK or AQ, you should just be folding river. I'm never trusting that read though just because a guy is old, you have the effective second nuts and only 3 combos beat you, I'm raising river for sure.

While thinking players see you as a TAG, OMC probably sees you as a total maniac. Villain may be willing to die with his AK thinking "got this idiot kid", especially if it's around 5pm and bedtime is coming up. If this happens at noon he may be less likely to stack off without the nuts since he has to make his money last another 5 hours.

I tanked for a while. I wanted him to think I was contemplating a call, but all I was thinking about was Vegas and the ****ing Mirage. I shoved. He quickly called. I know before the cards are even turned over.

This is all about your pre flop range. People can argue all day about what to do with a super nit but I saw very little in the way of actual range analysis.

If he raises AK preflop and is willing to call a river shove then it’s an obvious value above on the river.

If he raises AK preflop but folds to aggression then this is a river call.

If he doesn’t even raise AK preflop then it’s not really in his range at all and you should be contemplating folding the river unless he has some once in a while spazz factor.

Degrees of OMC. I’ve played with all three and the definition really matters in spots like this.

This is good. With the description as a super nit, I assumed #3.

You probably dont have that much info to correctly bucket, so let's discount AK by half, and then you add in he will bet river only some of the time, and only call a river raise with it some time, and it feels like a call and not a raise.

MVP over here. Probably a mix of #2 and #3. Clearly wasn't on my A game.