Sunday afternoon at Maryland Live.

Villain is mid 50s bearded white guy with quilted vest in seat 1. He has been active, with VPIP/PFR at roughly 60/30. $420.

Hero (late 20s white guy, hoody, earbuds) sat down in seat 3 about an hour ago. I've played pretty tight; prob a VPIP/PFR of 17/13, but enough 3bets that the table won't realize this. $700.

Not a lot of conversation between us. I let him borrow my charger for his phone. He seems annoyed by my 3bets.

Previous hands:
- 2 limps, V raises to $12, 2 seat (old Asian man) calls, I 3b to $35, all fold.
- 2 limps, V raises to $12, 2 seat (same) calls, I 3b to $35, folds back and old Asian man calls. Flop J T 6. I bet $45, old man x/r to $100, I call. Turn K. Guy shoves for $180. I think for a bit and call. He shows J9, I table AK. River bricks. Old Asian man leaves 2 seat after this hand and is replaced by a middle aged white guy who is a loose passive 80/10.

On to the hand:

Villain opens UTG for $13. Seat 2 folds, hero 3b to $45 with AK. Folds back to villain. He calls.

Flop ($90): T 9 6. V checks, I bet $60, he calls.

Turn ($210): A. He checks, I check back after 3 seconds.

River ($210): 4. Villain rather quickly pushes out $315 all-in.

Hero ???

In addition to the call/fold decision with reasons, I would be interested in hearing which specific hands you think villain has in his range at this point.

I’d fold getting < 2-1 on a call.

Possible range of hands with disclaimer that the hand combos (number of) we beat may be enough to warrant a call. For example, KK/QQ/JJ may be too ambitious while he may have some 2-pr AX combos.
TT/99/66/T9/87s/QJ/KK/QQ/JJ/AT

Flop – I’d check back and evaluate turn. Board texture is favorable to his 3-b calling range.

I think this is a fold. The villain opens so wide that he has plenty of two pair combinations and could have hit a set with the 4 or even flopped a straight. You aren't good with top pair top kicker 3/8 of the time.

Wow, tough one. V limp/calls from UTG -- I wish we had some info on what hands he's played and how he's played them. He could have a ton of hands: AK, AQ, AJ, AT, JJ, TT, 99, T9, 66, 44, 78 bluff/semi-bluff w/ QQ, JT, JQ, KK, random.

Why did you check the turn?

As played, I fold.

Flop call in hand 1 seems kinda spewy with a good chance that we're drawing to 3 outs.
And if we are calling the flop the turn should be a snap pretty much.

In this hand, sizing pre suggest a stronger hand than previous opens ($13 over no limpers vs $12 over 2 limpers) when he folded to you. As a result, I think we get folds on the flop almost never, so I'd likely check.

Turn check is fine as played.

River feels like a call.
Only things that should be beating us are 99/TT since I don't get the sense that he's going to peel light given his 2 previous folds, so he shouldn't have 87s, T9s type hands in his range.
So it is a bit of AQ/AK/AJ, some % (maybe 1/3) of JJ/QQ and then some TT/99 that we lose to.

What are you hoping to get value from if we bet the turn?
Also, he should have 44 here never.

We really think that he floated 44 here after our 3bet and flop barrel on a scaryish board?

Played well. I call.

AQ, AJ, maybe KK or QQ, draw.

No, I don't think he really floated 44, but since I've seen it done, I'm not discounting it.

We do have the backdoor NFD in that previous hand, too. That caused me to dislike folding when getting better than 4:1. I also thought it was a bit less likely for him to have sets since he had previously 3bet large with TT.

Turn check is to try to maximize wins when he has KK/QQ/JJ and minimize losses when he has 99/TT/AT.

I think the check on the turn was great. Villain is likely drawing almost dead at this point. Hero wants Villain to have a chance to bluff or gain enough equity OTR to call a value bet. As played, I call......

If the check on the turn was to induce, obviously OP must call. In that case, it's moot what we put V on. Our plan worked, and we should follow through.

(Of course, OP didn't check the turn for that reason.)

Agree. once you check the turn you have to call river. too many bluffs here. isnt shoving 2 pair hands here, very very small amount of the time he has sets and is shoving for 1.5x pot. 87s is his only real value hand i think he can have here and against all the bluffs he has it makes it a call.

This is faulty logic. Just because I check to induce and hope to widen the range of bluffs and blocker bets doesn't mean I shouldn't re-evaluate when I receive new information (i.e. a fish suddenly decides to make a 1.5 x overbet shove, a rather rare event).

While I am 100% committed to calling pot sized bets or lower, I feel no obligation to automatically call an overbet since that was not part of the induction plan for the turn check. This is therefore a legitimate decision, hence the thread.


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Also, as far as info on how V has played postflop, I have seen a much lower aggression factor than I would expect for someone with his preflop stats. Has checked with the lead while holding NFDs rather than c-betting in 3way pots. Was trappy in one hand HU on the river. Has x/c down with preflop lead once with Ax on Axxr flop.

I cannot remember a spot in which he made an overbet shove earlier in the session.


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Where is this coming from? You wrote that you checked to minimize loss and maximize gain, not to induce. Are you now saying you did check to induce? Very confusing.

Maximizing gains includes induction.


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I'm not crazy about the flop bet. I don't think you get folds nearly enough and it's not for value.
I like the turn check. And I'm fine with saying the turn check is at least in part to induce and also re-evaluating now that he overshoves.

In game I have to admit I likely fold but I think this is really a call here. I play in the same player pool and I see a QQ spaz here or an AQ too often to make folding right.

Results:

In game I start talking to villain, asking why he suddenly decided to make it one point five times the pot. "Did you flop a set on me?" I gather up a bunch of green chips. He looks somewhat uncomfortable.

I know I have to be good roughly 40% of the time. Combos that beat me include 3 x 99, 3 x TT, 6 x AT, i.e. 12 total. I think he thinks that my hand can be KK here a lot and want to push me off it. In general, the stuff I win against is fuzzier because I'm not certain about which worse hands he calls a 3b with and then continues with after my c-bet and then decides to shove on the river after the turn checkback. Three different conditions lead to Bayesian considerations...instead of saying the full 8 AQ combos, I'll give him 25% of that for 2 x AQ. Also, 25% of the JJ/QQ (as a bluff, and also sometimes a weird spazz play as psujohn points out) for 3 more combos. I'll also say 25% of QJs/87s that he decided to "take a stand" with preflop and is now deciding to unload with for 4 more combos. That gives me 9 total. 9/21 = 42.9%, 43% > 40%, so it looks like a call is mathematically appropriate given the assumptions I have made.

I slide out the greens, he mutters, "Pair of jacks," I table the AK and mhig.

The JJ/QQ spazz seems to happen a lot in this player pool. I suspect the thinking goes: I have a strong hand, he likely doesn't check back the turn with an A, I must be good. And they never consider the whole "but he won't call with worse so why bet here".

Hell I fall into that trap myself at times. I'll bet on the river, get called and go "oh **** I'm beat".

NH

Not crazy about your sizing here..... why you 3betting to $45 with no callers in but only $35 with one caller? Also, flop bet is huge in my opinion. when he continues flop he has AA, KK, TT. In my opinion. As played I expect him to roll over TT most of the time and prolly AA rest of the time. <10% of the time he is spazzing with KK or QQ ,imo , and you are already getting terrible odds to bluff catch with one pair.

He also might have thought he had a chance to bluff Hero off of KK/QQ. It's obviously not clear whether he knew why he was betting, but it is possible he thought he was bluffing.

Snap call.

You induced him to bluff at the ace. now finish the job.

Very close, but I think quilted vest makes it a fold.