Reads: A bit loose preflop and maybe a bit loose postflop. Has been at the table for like an hour and have never seen his actual cards. He has been in an all-in pot once against a shorter stack and lost. He has been involved in a few decent sized pots. But he's definitely not terrible...I may have a real tight image (from his perspective, because I've been unusually inactive in the past hour).

I make it $15 in MP with KK. Folds to villain in the BB who flats. Flop comes K87. $180 effective stacks. Villain donks for $24. Hero?

This situation is so incredibly rare for me that I wasn't so sure what to do. I'm used to handling middle pairs...but not sets (I don't flop a set once per 8 hours, which is average. More like once per 20 hours).

Slow-play or raise? If raising, what amount? Please justify the amount too and say why it's superior to other amounts.

raise to like 50 seems fine. if you do more than 60/ live turds usually fold especially when we smashed the flop.

Pretty easy raise considering his range is mostly flush and straight draws followed by 2pair. I like making it 65 so that we can easily stuff it on the turn.

There are to many action killers / cards he's semibluffing with to slow play. Live turds love donking a FD.

raise to 70-75. a smaller raise could actually give strong draws the right price to continue

Since you have position, I just call. If he keeps betting, great. If not, you can bet the turn

I would raise to 65-75. He is likely to be playing cards that connect with the board so you don't want to just flat or raise so small that he gets to hit his draw, if he would, cheaply

*grunch*

This is a great place to raise, rather than flat, because the board is draw-heavy (both flush and straight draws possible).

Villain can call with draws (which is great, since we're raising for value), and villain can put you on a draw if he has a made hand, and call. In other words, we aren't worried about ending the hand right here.

Conversely, if we flat and a draw comes in, it may either kill our action, if the V had a pair or 2p on the flop and now shuts down -- or if the V wakes up with a big bet, we may worry that we've been out-drawn and may not be able to bet big for value.

If V bet $24 into about $30, I'm raising to $65 or $75 here, usually, which sets up an easy shove on a blank turn.


-EF

85 on flop and 95 on turn means Villain can call off his whole stack without calling a triple-digit bet, and will be getting the wrong price on the flop to call with just about any draw. I'd do it this way.

I think I like gay-raising to 50. Commits stacks and he'll have trouble folding at any point. If we get drawn out on... whatever.

On a draw heavy board I think we want to raise this a lot of the time. If he's got an underset it gets all of the money in before anything could possibly kill the action, same for two pair. It also gets value from any draws and prevents us from making a huge mistake on the turn.

If a card like the 6 rolls off on the turn what do we do?

When we raise to $75 on the flop and he flats, there's $105 behind and $180 in the pot. If a scare card comes out and he bets we get 2.7:1 and only need to be good ~27% of the time, but we've likely got 10 outs to boat up for about 20% equity. So as long as there are a few sets/2-pair/draws in his shoving range into a scare card we're good.

The only time you want to slow-play a monster *especially* when donked out on - is if you think villain might be bluffing and you want him to continue the charade.

A reasonably competent villain with no previous shown bluffs is probably not donking out against the pre-flop raiser on a uber-wet board with complete air. I also don't think he'd do this with a draw - why donk out and get raised off our draw? So our assumption should be that he has a hand, at minimum 2-pair plus unless he's a complete and total spazz (in which case your read of 'he's not terrible' is waaaay off). And if he is on a big draw (T9cc comes to mind), the money's going in anyway.

So: he should have minimum two-pair, and he can't really be donk-bet/folding with that strong of a range - so I'd go ahead and go for gold and raise a bit big; make it at least $75-80 and jam literally any turn, even if a club rolls off (we still have plenty of equity to boat up if he is on a big draw).

Make it 75 to price out draws and get value from hands he likes before scare cards hit.

you don't want to slow play a flop that wet. If it was like Kc/8h/3d we are calling this all day. But a flop like this, you are getting action against a ton of hands. 9/10 any flush draw, some random 2 pair hand he decided to call on the button with, and maybe even K/10.


So we are raising this every time. If a club / J 10 9 6 5 falls you no longer have the nuts any more. Also if an ace falls it might slow down your action. Generally when people donk at flops like this, they like their hand. Only problem is you say you have been real tight, so he may be able to get away from his hand easily unless he has 2 pair or a really good draw.

Even with that said, i'm raising this every time. pot is around $30~ with his $24 bet? So i think a raise to like $65 looks good.

Just a semantics issue. When did betting into the raiser become a "donk bet" rather than a "probe bet"?

The action in this hand fits both definitions.

I think the distinction is it's a probe bet when we do it and a donk bet when our opponent does.

Read the post then did the math with his stack and came to pretty much these exact numbers.

like 3 years ago