Villain: mid to late 30s white man; seems to be a well respected TAG reg ($400)
Hero: mid 20s asian man; TAG, just got stacked pushing a combo draw and has been on a losing streak ($200)

Villain opens $6 in EP. A caller. Hero squeezes to $26 with QQ IP. Folded back to villain who calls and the other guy folds.

Flop: K86 ($61)

Villain checks. Hero checks back for pot control.

Turn: 5 ($56)

Villain checks. Hero bets $30. Villain calls. It's hard to put him on anything better than QQ at this point since on this wet board I feel like he wouldn't check twice with better.

River: 9 ($116)

Villain donks $50. Tank tank tank...I block AQcc and also what kind of flush draw doesn't bet the turn? I obviously don't have a flush cause I checked back the flop and he's good enough to know that. Could be thin value with 99? Or maybe 77? No way it's JJ or worse right?

"You show if I fold?" No answer or even a movement from villain.

Hero ???

I don't get the pot control comment on the flop. You 3-bet pre and check with that board? 2 clubs and a King. Bet flop, reevaluate turn.

If you wanted pot control, why raise to 26 pre when you are already isolated to 2 players? Make it 15-18 and control the pot size earlier on. I understand wanting to pot control but there is a time and a place for that IMO.

Checking the flop isn't terrible, although I'd prefer it if the flop were something less connected, like K83.

There are tons of turns that will complete straight draws, and/or create combo draws for our villain.

Betting the flop helps us realize our equity.

Bet flop. Bomb turn again if checked to. As played to river, I don't think it matters if you call or fold.

Bet the flop, you will get called by worse on a fairly coordinated board.

AP, fold barring additional reads.

Why bomb the turn??

I would bet $45 on the flop, often check turn for pot control. That turn card isn't great for AK, which is what we're repping when we bet AK after a 3! pre and get called. Our stack is short enough that we could also bomb the turn to force out club draws and weak kings though.

As played, it's very easy for us to be beat. Villain isn't worried about a flush, since we would've cbet the flop with a flush draw. Most likely hand is a suited connector that made the straight on the river, is hoping to get paid off by an unimproved pocket pair.

I'm having a hard time thinking of hands we can beat that check-call the flop and lead the turn. All the draws got there, and we have less than top pair. Only hope is that he has 1010,JJ, or ace8/ace9/ace6. ...And scratch that, he isn't making it $6 preflop with 1010 or JJ.

We are never good here. Fold river. If you are going to pot control by checking the flop, why don't we check the turn as well?

By checking the flop we probably are reducing our fold equity on the turn to near zero.

On the flop is where we have a chance to use our fold equity.

What the hell are we trying to fold out? Do you think Kx is folding the flop...?


I prefer bet on the flop due to extreme wetness. As played, we lose, fold.

Yeah a bet on the flop would probably be much better. Keeps my range on the turn uncapped. What do you think he has though? We block flushes. Only 7 I see him having is 77. Other than that...sets?

+1

I think it's 77 a lot. Maybe AJcc/ATcc or 99. I don't see how we can ever be winning on the river though.

Wow, talk about a polarized river betting range. If there was ever a case of it, it's here. That being said, I think I would lean to a fold. You really can only beat showdown value type hands and most players at 1/2 aren't betting those, especially a player like how you described the V, an experienced reg. I've seen 1/2 players do these pot-sweetener type raises with A7s, JTs, 77 and even occasionally 87s, so I don't think him having a seven is beyond the realm of possibility; he can have AXcc too, surely. He pretty obviously doesn't have a king; a set of nines is very possible. At 1/2 I think you assume Vs are not bluffing rivers until you have a good reason to believe otherwise. If I folded, I'd put this guy on my radar for extra special attention, for sure.

Oh, and fire $40 on the flop and reevaluate, like am21 said. You're giving the guy a free shot to catch a set on you with his probable underpair and is likely to call at least once with it if you bet. Pot control the turn if you want, then, but just know that if he has JJ/TT you might get multiple streets of value out of him. But bet/fold is the standard line on flops when you were the raiser and an over comes out, at least heads-up versus a player who isn't too tricky.

I usually c-bet this flop, but it's not required against this villain. We are most likely ahead on the flop, but our hand is vulnerable and we don't stand to improve which makes it a usual c-bet. A respected villain is often leading any non-K turn when we check behind on the flop, so we should be planning on calling his turn bet. So most often we either take it down on the flop with a c-bet or get to the river after calling behind on turn, with a pot of just about the same either way. (Third case is our V calls the flop c-bet and leads turn, which we are never ahead of).

This V surprised us and didn't lead turn. We should be calling behind. What hand ahead of us folds to a turn bet? And this $30 gives V near direct odds to call his draw.

As played I am folding the river. We just aren't ahead of anything he's value betting the river with.

If you had JJ or TT here you'd be fine taking it down on the flop. QQ is pretty much the same hand here. C-bet flop or check behind on turn.

A 'well respected tag' raises to $6 pre-flop in a 1/2 nl game?!? I think hero needs to work on better profiling villains....

Most villians playing LLSNL have epic bet sizing tells. In other words, there is no way that this guy raised $6 pre-flop with AK. If he had AK, then he would have raised $10-$12. If hero bets 75% of the pot on the flop, then this guy is snap folding (unless he flopped 2 pair +).

Fold river, we are rarely good. I think your actions on the other streets are fine.