Hero ($475, HJ): Young guy, playing fairly loose passiveish preflop since V1 sat down an hour ago.I was still more tight and agro preflop than most of the table but for my standards I was kinda loose passive. The reason for this is because there was this maniac regfish that was raising pretty much every hand and all pots were pretty much 6-7ways. I was also very deep with this regfish and I could hand range him really well. Unfortunatly for everyone, he left a few hands ago.

V1 ($205, SB): Middle aged indian guy that has been playing for the last hour. He has been pretty off the radar. I have not seen him raise preflop yet but I have seen him call several raises and give up OTF multiway. So an average loose passive by my best estimation. Excuse my lack of reads, I was at the tail end of a 6 hour session.

V2 ($300, MP): Young white guy. Not too relevant to this hand. Has a bet sizing tell preflop where he raises his premium hands to $12+ and raises some speculative hands to $7 or $5. He is also one of the few players who actually has a raise/fold range preflop.

Hero is dealt AT
1 limp, V2 raises to $7, Hero raises to $25, V1 calls, V2 folds (told ya he was weak )

Based on my description of him and the table dynamics I dont give him that tight a range preflop. Something like: Any pocket pair up to QQ, a good suited connector, broadways, AJo+, A9s+

Flop is KT9 ($60)
check, check
Decided to take a free card IP. I definatly considered cbetting here and I think there are definatly merits to cbetting.

Turn is a 5 ($60)
V1 bets $30, Hero calls
I have second pair and the nut flush draw. There a some worse hands in his range that he will bet and I have ok equity against others so I called the turn.

River is a T ($120)
V1 quickly bets $75, Hero calls

My main question is about the river in this hand. Thinking back I really think I should ship over his bet (he has $75 behind) and the fact that I just called was MUBsy. What do you guys think a ship or call OTR?

yea, hand was played fine until the river. I like the check behind on the flop. In llsnl, where we don't have to balance, I usually just go for a quick/cheap showdown value in these situations. Really no reason to cbet unless villain is a donkey station.

flatting river is a massive blunder. You just missed out on some serious value.




Let's also not forget that you have a T, which is a blocker to many full house combinations.

If you're reflecting that you should've shipped OTR, it kind of gives away results.

You might get better discussion if you leave out your last action, and ask us to call or raise.

You must do the following to arrive at the right decision. There's no other way...sometimes the right answer is counterintuitive.

Step 1 Range. Step 2 Equity. Step 3 EV calc.

Step 1. He doesn't have AA or KK. He also probably doesn't have total junk. I'd say his range is QQ (discounted), JJ, 1010, 99, 88, 77, AK, and AQ. But I'll go with the range you assigned, which is 22-QQ, QJsuited to AKsuited, AJo+, A9suited+, KQo.

On the turn, since he's passive, he's probably only betting QQ, JJ, 99, AK, 55, QJsuited, AKsuited, KQo.

On the river, he's probably betting 99, 55, KQ, QJ. Against this range, you win 30% of the time. Let's say his range is 80% these hands and 20% of the time he is making a bluff or bizarre blocking bet with like AK.

EV of calling = .8(.3*$195 - .7*$75) = +$4.8

.2 ($195) = $39

EV of calling = +$43.8

For raising, let's assume he folds everything except the hands that beat you, and 33% of the time he folds KQ and 66% of the time he calls KQ.

EV of raising = .2($195) = $39
.8 ((1/10)$195 - (9/10)((2/9)*$270 - (7/9)$150)) =
.8($19.5 - .9($56.67)) = .8 (-$31.503) = -$25.2024

EV of raising = +$13.798

So flatting>raising> folding. Anyone wanna work out the math though in the case where he folds all 3 combos of KQ and in the case where he calls all 3 combos of KQ?

I think you ship on the river even if you dont have the 10 with the 10 you need to. He probably will have a decent flush here and you can get him to call

Stepierc, when I said KQ, I meant three total combos: KQ, KQ, and KQ.

I know I just realized that