Late last night, was getting ready to rack up after my BTN but wasn't paying attention and posted my BB. Effective stacks between $250 and $480. Table has been together for 5-6 hours with the same players, many players rebuying and table is playing deep.

V1 is UTG and has a wide opening range. Donks pots with 2nd pair. Probably calls raises too loose OOP. He is sitting on $800 or so after getting stacking a guy twice on some questionable calls.

V2 is MP and has been playing fairly tight all night. Had a stack of $500 most of the night and I hadn't been involved in a meaningful pot with him because he seemed to be a nut peddler but his stack has dwindled down to $250 possibly due to him opening up, missing draws, playing looser or playing tired as we are near 4am.

V3 is SB and just recently sat down. No reads on him and he has no reads on the table. Stack of $250.

*2 hands prior*
V who is known as "the cockroach" because he has been AI 9 times and survived every time has a stack of $50. Opens for $10 and gets called by 2 players including V3. Hero raises to $50 from the BTN with K8s to squeeze or isolate the cockroach since his opening range is wide. He ends up calling with 56s and flops a pair which holds up. V3 claims to have folded JJ because he didn't know how the table was playing. So hero's image is gambooly even though I am really just attacking weak and timid players with hands I suspect to be ahead of their range. Hero is only player at the table 3!.

OTTH,

UTG (V1) opens to $6 (on the lower end of his normal open)
UTG+1 calls $6
V2 calls $6
CO calls $6
BTN calls $6
SB calls $6
Hero raises to $50 in BB with A K and a stack of $480

Thoughts?

V1 tank calls $50
UTG+1 folds
V2 calls $50 fairly quickly
CO folds
BTN folds
V3 sighs and says "well there's only one thing I can do with my hand now" and moves AI for $250
Hero overshoves for $480 total
V1 hems and haws and calls $480
V2 says "what the hell" and calls $250 total AI

Preflop pot: ~$1460

All aboard the variance train Choo Chooooooo

If you were on a boat it would be called the SS Spew. No way you're good in that spot.

If V3 thinks you can be light here then he can be trying to force you out with lower pairs and some worse hands. When he just completes the blind out of the SB it is hard to put him on a big pair. As long as this is true and V3 has middle pairs and some stronger unpaird hands in his range and AA/KK are discounted, this is +EV.

When it goes 4 ways to the flop you have to be facing at least one pair, so your going to win less then half the time. Getting better then 3-1 on your money it should be +EV. The only likely disaster case here is V3 has JJ-99 type hand and both V1 and V2 have AX and eat up a bunch of your outs.

No way I'm calling/shoving with AKo after a 4-bet accompanied by a speech. With no reads on V3, I'd fold. We don't know if he's the kind of player to call in the blinds with AA or KK hoping to 'trap'. And what the hell is a tight player like V2 quickly calling a 3bet with?

Best case scenario is hero has 6 outs against pocket pairs. I think that's extremely unlikely given someone else almost has to have AK/KK+. I get hero shoves to try to isolate V3, but V1 and V2 already called hero's huge 3bet. At least one of these players will call the shove.

This was my thought process. V3 is the only unknown quantity and had no idea how loose and gambooly the table was playing until the previous hand where I squeeze raised him off JJ with K8s.

I am discounting AA/KK from everyone but V3 after UTG made it $6 and got 5 callers. Even though the table hasn't 3! much, I have seen players 3! AA/KK tonight. After I make it $50 and V1 and V2 just elect to call, I am putting them on Ax and lower PP's so basically flipping. And V3 can now be shoving with any mid-PP which is what I put him on. Why would V3 flat $6 with AA/KK in the SB with 4 players (plus BB most likely) seeing a flop? I can't think of a worse way to play AA/KK than that.

So all in all I felt fairly confident I was flipping here and with all the dead money it seemed to be the +EV play. High variance, yes, but variance is your friend and folding after V3 shoves seemed way too MUBSY to me.

Grunch

If you like to gamble (I do), I think it's fine. No way V3 is calling $6 from SB w/ AA or KK (or JJ or QQ, I hope) -- unless he had a feeling you were going to raise. Did you give a tell? Maybe he also has AK or a smaller PP? I would have done the same

i agree.
i don´t see any other way to play the hand tbh (3bet size debatable, but hardly a stretch, barely more than pot i think)

nice hand. High variance but I play it the same given the action and speeches. It's really weird if anyone shows up with AA/KK here. V1 I guess if he was "fake tanking"

my guess:

V1: QQ
V2: AJ suited
V3: JJ

Dubey, you give them way more credit than I. I think the best pp here is TT, maybe. The only other A I see is AQ.

play money hand?

nah but all donkery aside i think u have to get in AK here and say nice hand if some1 really got cheaky in a 6 way pot with AA/KK. (one thing to keep in mind tho if the table really hasnt been 3betting at all is that compitent Vs are gonna be aware that they havent 3bet and may feel it looks to strong to raise an early position raiser for the first time in 5hours)
but with reads on this table dynamic this has gotta be a pretty nice spot

1500 is a huge pot at 1-2, did u scoop it?

That was my first thought. The speech/shove from an unknown is scary. However, when we look at all the money already in the pot, I think shoving is the right play.

There's ~$180 in the pot when V3 goes all-in for $250. If we range him QQ+ and AK, we've got ~39% equity.

We'd be looking at calling $250 to win $430.

I think AK is ahead of the overall range of the rest of the Vs (other than V3), plus we have some FE by shoving.

The only thing that worries me is if Hero gave a tell that he was going to raise and SB picked up on it.

Are you trying to justify risking that much with an AK draw pre flop. I hope you got crushed risking your whole stack on a draw that might not even be good by this action. I think you are way behind and this was a horrible play on your part. I would of folded to V3's shove.

"on a draw" lol.

This was a very mean spirited post.

+1

(20th post. LOL.)

I don't think I gave off a tell. I don't hold my cards or chips while action is taking place. I just observe the table. I looked at my cards once dealt and once again when the action got back to me before making it $50.

One reason I never look at my cards until it's my turn to act -- I'm not sure if I give a tell or not. (Not that you do -- I just don't look until it's on me.) I can also watch the other players look at their cards.

Dying to know what everyone had!

I'll disclose soon since everyone showed. Don't wanna drag it out.

True. Probably could of worded it better. I just don't see any point of risking so much money on a non made hand pre flop that you have to know is behind.

Now 21st post.

Grunch:

The only decision imo is if we should flat or shove.
When the action gets back to us it looks to be $200 more to call into $412 if I'm keeping track of the players right so we are getting 2.06:1, so we need 32.6% equity in the hand.
If we put V3 on an absurdly tight range of QQ+ then we are not getting the right price to shove as we only have 30% equity against that range.

If we think he will do this with JJ+, then we are 35%. +EV.
If we add in AKs, we rise above 36.2%. Add in a 5%, screw this guy, he just stole one from me last hand I'm going to get him with my AQs or TT or whatever hand factor, and we get even better.

No one else here can really be that strong, given the call/call lines they have taken for >10% of effective stacks, so we can assume we have the best hand here against then a large portion of the time.

Against some ranges that I ran for all three players (including some stupid tight ones for V3 our equity varies between 25% and 30% in the multiway pot. Clearly high enough. And when (like in this case) we gii against the other V for the side pot, we still often have >50% equity in the side.

I don't see how this isn't a shove here given previous hand, our short term image, money in the pot, and the likely ranges that people are playing here.

the goal is here to bring UTG along both for his range and stack. If that is the case once he tank calls $50 and it goes 4bet shove, 5bet shove I think he folds a ton. I would just call. The only chips in play are the UTG V and 5bet shoving there I dont think is the best way to get them in. I would call and hope that induces UTG V to call. Unless you know something about him that would be my thought.

btw speech = nuts so I dont mind a fold here though.

At this point (when the action comes back to us), we want folds given the tremendous amount of dead money in the pot (if our read is SB holding AA/KK unlikely).

As for people expecting monsters here, something goes funny in peoples heads when pots get big pre like this. Had a similar had, was racked up ready to go, got AA. It went all-in pre four ways (and like this hand, the shortest stack with about $150 was the first to shove after a raise then 3-bet by me). The pot was about $1100 (3 stacks including mine about 300, plus 150 ss).

The short stack had 88. The two other Vs had QJ and KT. I came in 3rd place after a flop of QJ9.

But the point is, when pots get giant multi-way, people start doing dumb things with marginal hands.

Did they know you were getting ready to rack up? This makes it even better. Probably thought you were just trying to win your last hand and played back at you.

I am much more worried about V1, who opened small and then didn't go away when you 3bet him, than I am about the guy who actually shoved. That guy probably has some mid-pocket pair that he didn't feel like folding, and if I knew V1 was going to fold I'd get it in against V3 without hesitation. However, V1 could definitely have AA. He opens small to induce a 3bet, then pretends to tank, and then just calls because your 3bet is big enough that he doesn't think he needs to worry about isolating. I would be very surprised if we were in good shape against V1 (unless he has another AK).