Villain is in his 30s always listening to music. Very quiet. Haven't seen him often until recently. Plays pretty tight, not opening speculative hands. Could certainly be a winner at LLSNL. Moderately passive on the flop and post flop. Definitely high fold to c-bet percentage. I've been fairly active tonight and we haven't played any meaningful pots past the flop. He recognizes me as a regular and knows I open with lots of hands especially in position over limpers. I'm only flatting pairs and AJ+ here. Not sure if he figures me wider or not.

(6 players only)

Hero ($750): SB 5s5h

UTG calls, 1 fold, Villain ($450)(MP) raises to 12. 1 fold, BTN calls. Hero calls. UTG calls.

Flop: 5c8s8d

Hero checks. UTG checks. Villain bets 20. BTN folds. Hero calls. UTG folds.

Turn: Ac

Hero checks. Villain checks.

River 9c.

Hero bets 45. Villain raises to 110. Hero......raise or just call?

Probably butchered this hand. Want to keep villain in the hand on the flop. We want to give his over cards a chance to hit. We are crushing pairs. I was going to check raise the turn but that probably looks too strong and i should have just led the A, hoping it hit his range while he thinks im stabbing at a scare card.


On the river what can he be raising with? Flush draws that checked back the turn after c-betting in order to get a free river? Seems like a weird line for a random 8 like 78s or 89s. Maybe just a big A that somehow checked the turn figuring our hand for mid-pairish? 99 could fit too.

Never folding when our hand is this under repped. Call or raise?

Call, because you'd expect him to bet turn with most FD's, he probably doesn't have 97s in his range pre, and he probably doesn't play 8x or Ax this way (and won't call river 3b with Ax anyway).

He has 88, AA, A8s, 66 for 8 combo's that beat you, which is not a lot, but still enough to make it a flat.

Reraise to 220. There are only 7 combos that beat you (3 combos of AA, 3 combos of 99, and 1 combo 99). I doubt he has A8 since you said that he doesn't raise with speculative hands. You wanna get value from flushes and maybe even TPTK/TPGK if he played it that way.

That being said, if he were to reraise you AI, you would have to fold since I doubt he would reraise flushes and TP hands.

There is no way V is putting us on anything nearly as strong as we are so I think that his raising range is fairly wide - AK, AQ, KK, QQ, JJ, any 8 (unlikely), plus stuff that beats us. I can't see a flush here other than KQcc considering that he doesn't have the Ac and he c-bet this board into 4 players. The problem is that most of what he raised us with either has us beat or should fold to a 3 bet. In fact the only thing that I can think of that would call the 3 bet that we beat would be KQcc.

So I suspect that while he may well have taken himself to valuetown with the raise, that is all we can get out of him. I think that we are ahead most of the time here but if we 3bet here, he folds all worse and calls with all better. So I call and expect to win.

As for the check turn, I think it is fine. Betting there scares off a lot of hands that will later give us action because it looks like we either hit the A or have an 8. But I wouldn't be CR the turn, either. Just keep flatting to the river.

What about 67s, cbet flop and give up turn? Don't mind a call specifically for only getting jammed by hands that beat us and folds by hands we beat (8x will barrel turn here if villain has sense).

Reraise, u beat most random 8's that he slow played, and u beat 67 which is a big part of his range, losing is just a cooler imo...
I know I will get flamed for this but a raise/fold to 250$ could be argued here...in the game I just make it 300 and call

I don't see how 67 can be a big part of his range when OP describes V as "pretty tight, not opening speculative hands." Same thing for random 8s.

He shouldn't be folding 67s or 78s in MP over an UTG limper, and he shouldn't be overlimping them IP either, OP said he's a winner, and those hands are not speculative...opening A7s is speculative

What is villain calling a river 3bet with that we beat lol

This is a clear call imo

Does anyone else donk the flop?

not vs a good villain who will cbet this flop all the time, this is a great board to cbet and we assume that villain is competent here...actually he also should double barrel since the turn will probably bring an over card...I think OP played it fine...villain should bet this turn card with all his range

Grunch

I would have raised the flop to $ 60. If he has AK and folds, then we wouldn't have been getting much value out of him. If someone else has an 8, then we get a lot of value in those cases.
As played I would lead out the turn because the Ace is a great card for us. It hits his PFR range in the face and ours as well, depending on what villain thinks of us CCing from the SB. I lead the turn for 3/4 PSB and go from there.
As played OTR, if villain is the type to get tricky with Aces full or 9s full, then I just call. IF we are puttin him solely on KQcc, then we can min raise for value, but I would lean towards calling.

Call. You have showdown value but not the nuts. Is he really raising you on the river with Ax, or any pair in the hole other than 88? Based on your description of him, I cannot imagine that he is. I don't think he has 88 with the c-bet, but I'd lay money he has AA.

Do you even attempt to read hands or do you just assume that everyone has the nuts?

Villain could have raised with KQ, KJ, QJetc and backdoored a flush. He could have also checked AK OTT for some reason. I would want to get value from those hands, especially if he does have a flush.

Like I said, if he reraised, then I would fold.

Why would he EVERRRRRRRRR check back the turn with a FD? He literally got the nut bluff card.

Also, if villain is solid (or even if he's nit solid), he will realize we have 8 or 9 combos of FH+ and it's more likely we have that than a bluff (especially since we don't get past the flop with air). I would 3b any other FH because they all are losing to ~1/2 as many hands and allow for villain to have FH hands that we cooler.

Raise fold. Your hand is seriously under-repped. And what does villain have here that beats you? He c-bet less than half-pot on the flop and checked back the turn.

The only hands that a) beat you and b) make any sense are specifically 89 and 99. A random 8x hand isn't going to check back the Ace on the turn then raise the river, and A8 isn't going to check back the turn.

This smells a lot like a back-door flush, or a raise as a bluff thinking that you were a lot weaker than you are after you check/called the small flop bet, checked the turn and then only bet half-pot on the river.

I'd min-raise and fold to a shove. I can't recall the last time I saw someone four-bet shove on the river without the stone cold nuts.

Donking out on the flop isn't a bad idea - often times people won't give you credit for flopping gin ("probably some random pair trying to figure out where he's at"). But you end up kicking out all the hands you beat that you want to catch up a bit. So I don't mind check/call on the flop.

I'd bet the turn however. A semi-thinking villain will know you could easily be betting the Ace as a scare card.

Once you check the turn and it gets checked through, I think you have to bet bigger on the river. If villain is going to call 45, he's going to call 75-80 I think.

Villain could easily check back the turn if he doesn't want to get raised off a draw.

Why wouldn't A8 (and AA) check this turn back? If V has this, he figures he has a stone cold lock on this hand and needs to let Hero catch up or at least think that he can catch up on the river. And when Hero donks the river, V puts in a raise that is enough to call with any 8 or flush or maybe even an ace.

because this is such a static flop, hero either flopped a value hand or he didnt, villain should know that if he's competent. Also checking the turn will not get stacks in by the river, which is bad if he's a winner like OP says. Checking the turn with a nutty hand is pretty bad, unless OP read that villain is a solid player is incorrect

I don't know how many players in the 1/2 pool - even good ones - outside of 2p2 think in terms of getting stacks in by the river. I think that the thought process of even a lot of winning 1/2 players when they hit the nuts on the turn is "how do I keep my victim in and extract value?" And checking the turn accomplishes this by making the A look like a scare card.

From another point of view, isn't a competent V looking at this turn and thinking that any bet he makes on this turn will scare off a lot of hands that may make second best hands on the river (overpairs, some FDs depending on bet size and Hero's tightness)?

And does the argument that checking the turn with a nutty hand is bad also apply to Hero here?

How much for value do you think you're getting from Ax and flushes? It's not about what we can beat, it's about what villain will call with.

I would expect a flush more than a higher full house. If he does have a flush, he will probably pay off.

Pardon me, if this sounds like a bad question, but...

Let's suppose that our read of villain's poker knowledge is higher than it really is and he doesn't give value to the strength of our hand combined with the fact that he is over valuing the strength of his own hand (say it's a King high flush) which is shown by his raise. We (Hero) reraise and then villain still thinking his flush is the best, shoves all-in. He has by some ignorance, accidently turned his flush in to a bluff by no intention of his own. Do we still have to fold in the moment or do thoughts like the above have some impact on our decision? Should we lean towards a call because a villain may or may not have the poker mind that we "have" (assuming we have one)?
I think I've gone cross eyed.

Haha im happy to see a lot of responses. This hand happened late in the night when the room was breaking down. Notice it's 6max. We've been playing short handed for the last 20-30 min and I've been opening and winning quite a few pots. Up probably $350 in the last 60-90 min. In the time we've been playing short handed he has appeared to loosen his starting hand requirements opening a little more frequently.

I can't say I remember him opening small-mid suited connectors but he could be. I would certainly hope he's opening with KcQc, KcJc, and QcJc otherwise I'm wayy off with my image of him.

Our decision is on the river but I think the key to deciphering his range is on the turn. Without a lot of history idk which parts of his range he's checking back? I hope to keep getting good input from everyone.

i would def raise here

Bump for resolution.