Didn't realize the KGB game still ran

/lasttimeIstickitinyou

I laughed very hard at this.

OP, if you don't get past your confirmation bias you will struggle long term IMO.

don't get me wrong, th leo pic was great. But not if it's the only thing he contributed to this thread.

Steve thanks for being the only one to add anything to this thread.

And as far as being results orriented, not so much. Im only disturbed by playing results. I did win the hand. Im just not sure....calling was profitable.

Edit: against a range of 42o,42s,67h,65h,64h, and 62h, NO SETS. We have less than 34% equity..............I get it snap call anyway. Sorry for wasting everybodys time.

Never fold top set on the flop for less than 500bb unless V shows you a better hand and is afraid of getting sucked out on for a bunch of money. /thread

yeah, matt damon can lay it down! OP, as for your question if it was a good deal, well, you and your opponent both took back the same amount of money when you were about a 2 to 1 underdog. surely you have figuered out yourself that that was a good deal...

@OP - If you want to know your odds to win, it is basically the odds to get a FH (there are other minor contributions if you have Ah, or if he has a straight flush draw, etc.. these were not specified, and when calculating odds on the spot to get a rough estimate, you should just keep the equation simple).

You have (1) A, (3) 3s, and (3) 5s to fill up on turn. So your odds to NOT IMPROVE are
38 / 45

Now with new card X, on the river you have (1) A, (3) 3s, (3) 5s, and (3) Xs. So your odds to NOT IMPROVE are 34 / 44.

Your odds to miss FH are 38/45 * 34/44 = 65%... Or basically you need to be calling less than 35% of the resultant pot.

Shortcut math. Number of Outs * 2 * number of cards to come = roughly your percentage.


i.e. on a flush draw with 9 outs on the flop = 9 outs * 2 * 2 cards to come ~= 36%... good enough to rough it in your head.

So how to calculate your pot odds?

Your Call / (Your Call + pot to you). In this case =
(150 to call) / (207 in pot + 150 to call) = 42%.

So if shown 24, you technically should fold (42% > 35% equity)...

But this is not all that horrible of a call, only 35% * $357 pot - $150 call = -$25 EV.

Risking $25 in case he does not have 24 it well worth it in practice

Raise more preflop. There's a straddle on plus we have an aggro image.

I bet the pot on the flop. If they have something, they'll continue. If they have nothing, they'll most likely fold, unless they figure we'd have to be FOS for actually betting a made hand here and decide to play back at us. Board is also very drawy and we want big money to go in before scare cards come. Plus we want to be able to play for stacks by the river easily.

With ~44 effective bbs and top set on a drawy board with an aggro image, I'm folding exactly never.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Bip, Thank you so much. For walking me thru the problem solving stage. Now that i see the -ev is only $25, im not as horrified. I thought it was a little more than that.

In fact, with the money taken back as you described, it made it +EV for you.