Hero - 450
Villain - 220~
8 Handed Private Game

Very loose table, preflop openings range anywhere from 8-25 and most players are comfortable calling a single raise with almost any two cards with the exception of the villain in this hand. He has been playing tighter than most preflop and very ABC post (only committing chips when he thinks he has the goods, haven't seen him bluff yet in 3-4 hours or chase many draws). Hero has been playing TAG and been a consistent winner in this particular game.

3 limps, I look down at black aces and make it 14$, SB (Villain) calls, all three limpers call as well (hating life right now).

Pot: 72$
Flop: 9d10h2s
Villain leads for 50$, 3 folds, hero flats/raises?.
Also what kind of range can we put on villain considering it is a relatively dry board. In regard to preflop sizing, I felt that making it something like 18-22 would have had no difference in that all 4 players would have come along anyways and therefore opted for 14$. Sizing ok?

villan obv hit his trips. trouble here is if you raise enough to protect your aces you probably only pick up blinds and calls. bet size pre could maybe have been 30 but not sure

On the second question, your logic is totally wrong....AA is the best hand in poker...if raising more gets the same number of callers raise more....If raising large gets a lot of callers you do not hate life (you like life, it got interesting, but profitable)...

If raising twice as much gets half as many callers then you want to raise more for the same size pot....but for the same number of callers you want the biggest raise you can make with AA....

The harder question is what is his range, and how much equity do we have...
the Stack to pot ratio is 3-1 which means the math is likely to want to get it in here....

If you get it all in the final pot will be about 490 and you have to call 205 ish...so you need about 42%....equity (to get it in.) ...if we shove he has to call all in (as he only has to have 32% equity to call off and every hand he donks should at least have that).

Put him on hands...AA KK he 3 bets pre flop most of the time...
QQ JJ...he calls pre flop...and would fit donking out into 4 players...I would think..
QJs ???? would he call here....if he is really tight here probably not...tight for a loose live game yes...
would he bet out here...he has a good draw that misses a lot of ranges but, if he's passive??? hard to know....discount the hand.... it fits donking out...
TT 99 and 33 fit his calling pre flop (33 ify 220 deep but live game yes)...

A hand like ATs might not call pre flop (probably does) donks ???? will discount...

So just give him the range of QQ JJ T9s TT 99 and 33.....you have 51% equity...

Drop JJ...and you have 38% equity...
drop QQ and JJ...you down to 11% eqiuty...
Add in QJs and you go to 53% equity.....

I would say its close....I would think that at least QQ and JJ would be in his range and you have to at least call....

I'd try to find the sweet spot preflop where we get 1 or 2 callers at most rather than more. So I'd raise more. You even said they'd call $25, so raise at least that, so long as that isn't totally turning our hand face up.

I wouldn't call this a "relatively dry board", methinks this is fairly wet (ETA: Whoops, I thought there were two-to-a-suit, my bad, not as drawy as I thought). We've got a low SPR, but we're in a 5way pot and villain just bet fairly big into the world. First, there's no way I'm raising cuz the only raise that makes sense is a shove, and the only hands that we're currently ahead of that this villain calls a shove with are awesome draws (which are actually probably ahead). That leaves calling or folding. Does villain ever double/triple barrel draws? Does he ever donk/slowdown? If the former, I probably just fold now cuz re-evaluating the turn ain't gonna help (we know he's gonna bet and our hand is unlikely to get better). If the latter, I'd call and fold the turn to further action, although even this leaves us in a sucky spot cuz villain will only have a PSB left on the river. Tough spot, but I'd lean towards folding the flop.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I was going to say "is this a joke? Raise/commit." but then I read villain's description.

He might be tight preflop, and he may not bluff postflop, but how tight/loose is he postflop? Will he put $220 into this pot with A10, JJ, QQ? These are all very likely hands. Is he so incredibly nitty/tight postflop that he wont' commit with these hands?

Like I said, I need a good reason not to commit, but if you think villain will fold A10/JJ/QQ to a raise, then just FOLD ON THE FLOP to the first bet. How can you call the flop, then fold to a turn shove? You'll be getting 2-1 and it's tough to fold an overpair getting 2-1. He has no reason to think A10/JJ/QQ is behind at that point.

Also, if you decide to commit, you could just flat the flop because it's a pretty drawless board. It's unlikely a tight player is calling preflop with like J8.

so...villain donked flop so he obv has trips?

Can I get some more reasoning here?

If that's your thought, you want to raise just in case?

And 30$ pre? I think that you can just write a note to the other players and say you have aces instead.

GG nailed it.

More pre, not $30, but more than $14 especially if 8-25 was all common.

Annoying flop spot, only real mistake is raising here (unless villain would donk/call AT etc). I think that if I've ever seen villain lead draws/one pair I'm probably down to flat here. Whether you think he bets turn is enormously important obviously.

Sizing pre flop is ok, but most everybody here on this forum would tell you raise more, $18-$25.
Post flop, once villain leads into you, you can narrow his range to sets/
2pr/pair/draws. Withough knowing about your tendencies at the table and how V is aware of these (openning range pre/c bet %/ reaction to donk bets when you are the pre flop aggressor, etc) and the history/dynamic between you and V, and purley based on your TAG description of you and V, this is raise on this flop for value/ to protect against/charge possible draws/balance.
Once V leads into you, the pot is ~$122 and V has about $160 behind. If you are not willing to committ to this pot , you need to fold now which is not an option so your plan should be to get the chips in the middle ASAP. Raise to $120-140/ call a shove...or shove any turn.

Raise more pre for value, You said the table normal raise was $25, so why not $25?

You are not ever allowed to fold the flop here. I think flat is fine. Raising is pointless and asking for serious trouble.

If villain is so tight this actually seems like a good time for him to make a move. He reps an over-pair, a set, or two pair.

I think you want to get to the river as cheaply as possible. If he fires again on the turn you are done (unless an A drops).

That cannot be right. You're going to call the flop to see what he does on the turn? What if he shows up with jj or qq? But all this indecision could have been avoided with a bigger pfr, about $20-$25 (but $30 is too much). In a more typical game, $14 or less would be ok. If you had raised more pf, your otf decision would be more simple. But now you are in no-man's land.

Raising more pre is obv, if they're willing to call higher bets you shouldn't be afraid of losing action, again like others have said just don't bet so much your hand is polarized.

I'm confused with this logic for a couple reasons. I understand villain's history is tight, but couldn't he play an OP the same way? Also if we fold here aren't we very exploitable? I know the context is different, but i've posted similar hands on this forum where the response to an overbet or shove on similar flops with AAs/KKs is fist pump shove or snap calling shoves.

Also GG w/ no FD I don't see how we're behind w/ no real combo draws. The only real thing we should be worried about given villains history is a set right? Unless he called with 9T. (TBH though usually donk bets like this to me say 2 pair)

totally willing to stack off here he only has 200 and pot was 72 preflop.

14, way too small considering how loose tabe was. 25-30 more appropriate imo


raise flop lets do this !!!

Ya, I misread flop and thought it was Th9h2s, so this might have muddled my thinking.

GmuddledthinkingG

*Grunch
Shove it in his face.

1. raise more pf.
2. shove and win.

I don't think this statement makes any sense.

Just a guess but V's call preflop seems to suggest T9+ type hands or any pair 22-JJ

Card combinations favor V having top pair hand , not set. V's strong flop bet would be unusual for a low stakes player with a set; trapping seems to be a favorite line rather than trying to build a big pot.

I would look to get all-in if possible. Maybe reraise to $100 on flop ?

If V has T9 ? H is way behind but not drawing dead. If V has AT or KT you're giving yourself a chance to get his last $150.

What I meant was, against an unknown you shouldn't think twice about committing here. You need a strong read to NOT commit. Here our read is decently strong I think.

Anyway, let's assume we decide not to commit. In other words, we plan to fold to a turn shove unless we hit our 2 outer. I changed my mind about calling the flop bet, it's actually close. If he bet $70 rather than $50, I'd say we should fold flop. If he bet $30, we can call flop with the intention of folding turn.

$50 is kinda in between. I guess calling flop w/ the intention of folding to a turn shove is alright. Problem is it's just plain hard to fold to a turn shove on a blank card, or fold to a river shove after turn goes check/check. Again, against 95% of the player pool I'm raising/committing flop. It's hard to imagine a player so terrible that he won't commit on this flop with JJ/QQ.