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1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? 1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold?

06-05-2018 , 07:43 AM
V ($600, HJ) is a loose, recreational player in for around $700-800 in the game. I don’t really recall him making any bluffs, he’s the type to call/call/call etc.

History Hand 1: Hero limped JTo UTG (frisky I know), another limp, he made it 15 in BB, we call. Flop (45): Q43r, he checks, Hero bets 45, limper folds, he calls. Turn (135): 9x he check, Hero bets 65, he folds.

History Hand 2: Hero opens AA $12 UTG, 1 call, V calls in BB. Flop (37): K97r he check/calls 25, Turn (87): 4x he check/calls 50, River (187): 9x he check/calls 70 and MHIG.

History Hand 3: EP opens 7, V calls in MP, BB nit makes it 38, both call. Flop (115): Ts4h3h... BB checks, EP checks, V bets 100, BB shoves all in for 320ish effective, EP folds, V calls... BB shows AA, V shows 65hh for OESFD and turns flush for a huge pot.


OTTH....

1 limp, V limps HJ, CO limps, Hero makes it 20 with 99 OTB, V and CO call.

Flop (65): 832scc
Checks to Hero who bets $30, only V calls

Turn (125): 9c
V checks, Hero checks behind

River (125): Js
V snapbets $155, Hero ???

His flop range is probably any pair, straight draws and flush draws.

OTT, top pair changes so I think it’ll be hard for him to keep calling with 8x. But he might x/call a river bet or even improve to 2p or trips and let me win a huge pot.

I know you guys will flame me for not betting turn, but 300bb deep, I just don’t want to get check/raised here and think about trying to get lucky OTR if “he gives me the right price to call”. I know I’m risking 4-to-a-flush by checking behind but whatever. Also, I expect him to play pretty straight forward OTR and check his one pair hands, bet his 2p+ smallish.

I was planning to call any bet OTR but this sizing completely threw me off. Can we make the hero-fold here vs a 1/2 opponent?
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-05-2018 , 09:54 AM
Against certain opponents yes. If you know villain is playing a lot of suited cards but isn't playing low pairs and doesn't bluff very often then this situation is a fold. If villain doesn't limp/call 22 or 33 the only things you beat are 88 and bluffs. The only bluff villain can have is 45 unless he floated the flop with air, which is highly unlikely. If villain will limp/call with 22/33 then you have to judge the ratio of lower sets vs flushes and make your call.

I don't mind the way you played this if you are confident that villain's flop calling range has a lot of flush draws and villain won't bluff or over play worse hands very often. Against opponents who chase too often but rarely/never bluff the way to beat them is to charge them to draw but don't pay them off when it hits.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-05-2018 , 10:15 AM
I'd bet turn for $75. I want to bet turn&river for value on clean runouts. There are many hands Villain will call a turn bet with but fold unimproved on river, such as overcards/pairs that pick up FDs, even some 8x. Getting c/r by flushes is a worry, but as a loose rec, he may not do it as often as you're scared of, and may also size it poorly giving good odds to stack them.

River is difficult. Theoretically, you should never fold since your hand is probably the very strongest you can hold, and he could have worse sets at times
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-05-2018 , 10:25 AM
I can probably fold river as played. But I think I would have bet turn.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-05-2018 , 10:36 AM
AP, I think river action depends on the live read. How did he bet an odd amount so quickly? Did he have those chips in his hand already, etc? With the turn check, our hand is clearly under-repped.

Flop - higher for value on a drawy board with our pair vulnerable to overs.

Turn - bet/call, but size down, say $45, which allows room to call and see a river.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-05-2018 , 11:32 AM
Bet turn next time. As played, fold river.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-05-2018 , 11:39 AM
Hand #1 seems pretty bad.

In the hand in question, I'd raise less pre and bet the turn. Ap, ime, insta-bet-pot (or in this case, slight overbet) on the river from loose passive fish is consistently a very good hand. I'd fold AA or even 89s pretty instantaneously. The problem here is that you beat some hands that he might consider "very good" after this action, like J8 and 333. Dunno. Think it's a fold, but I prolly make a bad call irl.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-05-2018 , 03:07 PM
momo,

Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
In the hand in question, I'd raise less pre and bet the turn. Ap, ime, insta-bet-pot (or in this case, slight overbet) on the river from loose passive fish is consistently a very good hand. I'd fold AA or even 89s pretty instantaneously. The problem here is that you beat some hands that he might consider "very good" after this action, like J8 and 333. Dunno. Think it's a fold, but I prolly make a bad call irl.
All that, exactly.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-05-2018 , 04:30 PM
I definitely bet this turn and I size higher on the flop.

Snap overbet on the river is an extremely polarized line. So our hand is a bluff-catcher here as I think V would take more time to size if he were betting 2 pair + for value or a lower set. In fact I think most V's (who are showdown monkeys) would likely check all hands but bluffs and flushes here. 54 is the only draw that missed that makes some sense.

Pot is laying you a bit less than 2-1. This one is close...how deep are we? Do we cover? I think I call simply because we checked the turn which basically announces us as not having a flush. And isn't like he shoved giving us closer to 1-1. Yeah I call although not sure it is long term +EV.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-06-2018 , 12:05 AM
Why do you guys want to bet bigger OTF? I want to make it cheaper to bet/fold and also get called by random pairs. The bigger my bet, the narrower his calling range.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-06-2018 , 03:22 AM
I bet turn.

AP I want to call now because we induced but fold is probably better. I probably call in game but I also bet turn so yeah.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-06-2018 , 05:59 AM
I'd call pretty quickly. He could be turning random pairs into bluffs, have a lot of worse hands for value (9 combos of weaker sets, tons of two pair hands), bluffing straight draws, etc. He can't have QT unless it's exactly QTss.

Plus this hand is the very top of our range, we should not really have too many flushes here other than some trapped Axcc (you really shouldnt be checking 6 high flushes/7 high flushes ott, etc).

Bet flop bigger, you shouldn't have a 45% pot bet range on this flop. You're checking a lot of hands here and betting not too many hands, so we should be going at least bare minimum 55%; i'd say std is probably 60-65%+. Turn we should also be betting; you cant just bet only flushes ott

I do think the spot is close, but generally when we are "bluff-catching" and beat a lot of possible worse hands that are betting for value, im just calling it off. He isn't exactly polarized to air or nuts here.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote
06-06-2018 , 09:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk
Why do you guys want to bet bigger OTF? I want to make it cheaper to bet/fold and also get called by random pairs. The bigger my bet, the narrower his calling range.
99 is not a hand to get 3 streets of value, so I suggested higher OTF. Your hand is vulnerable to SD/FD/over cards on later streets, so max early.

Additionally, op described V as a station.
1/2: Middle set facing overbet OTR, can we make the hero-fold? Quote

      
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